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on the first trading day of october, hong kong stocks got off to a good start. the pre-holiday surge continued. hong kong's three major stock indexes collectively surged higher. the diversified financial and real estate sectors led the market's gains, and chinese brokerage stocks surged.

looking forward to the market outlook, institutions believe that hong kong stocks are more cost-effective than a-shares. as policies are implemented one after another, the performance of hong kong stocks is expected to be boosted. it is expected that the fourth quarter will be more likely to fluctuate upward.

in addition, a-shares are seeing good news again.blackrock's weekly report released on september 30 showed that it raised its rating on chinese stocks from neutral to overweight.blackrock investment research said there is still room for a moderate increase in chinese stocks in the short term, given the near-record discount of chinese stocks to developed market stocks and the presence of catalysts that could spur investors back into the market.

hong kong's three major stock indexes continue their gains

wind data shows that on october 2, the three major hong kong stock indexes collectively strengthened at the beginning of the session, and all hit new highs. as of 10 o'clock beijing time, the hang seng index of hong kong stocks rose 3.07%, the hang seng china enterprises index rose 3.72%, and the hang seng technology index rose 5.73%.

image source: wind

from the perspective of industry sectors, the performance of the diversified financial sector led the market, with a cumulative increase of nearly 13% as of 10 o'clock. china financial investment management soared by more than 350%, huarong financial holdings soared by more than 200%, shenwan hongyuan hong kong, individual stocks such as first shanghai also experienced strong gains.

image source: wind

the real estate and construction sector continued its recent gains, with sunac china, r&f properties, shell, vanke enterprise, sunac services, and longguang group among the top gainers. in terms of news, several first-tier cities in shanghai, guangzhou, and beijing have recently further relaxed real estate control policies. at the same time, the six major state-owned banks and a number of joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, etc. collectively announced adjustments to existing housing loan interest rates. further reduce the pressure on home buyers.

the consumer discretionary industry sector also performed well. among the constituent stocks, helens, bilibili, meituan, leapmotor, oriental selection, jd.com, and li auto were among the top gainers.

the ftse china a50 index futures also experienced strong gains today and continued to rise after the opening. as of press time, they rose by more than 4%, hitting a new high in more than two years.

image source: wind

the probability of upward shock in the fourth quarter is high

the federal reserve's first interest rate cut this year has caused hong kong stocks, which are more sensitive to interest rates, to rebound before a-shares in the near future. at the same time, the implementation of a series of favorable domestic policies to boost the economy and market has further enhanced investors' optimistic expectations for the future, and also made them the outlook for hong kong stocks is more positive.

gf securities judged that this round of sino-us policy resonance is at the bottom, and domestic counter-cyclical policies are expected to continue to increase. chinese stocks are facing a moment of counterattack, maintaining the view that hong kong stocks are more cost-effective than a-shares. judging from historical experience, the continued market performance of large-scale hong kong stocks depends on the realization of profits, such as the sustained and significant upward revision of the hang seng index eps.

looking forward to the fourth quarter, china galaxy securities judged that the probability of a subsequent soft landing for the u.s. economy is still high. a new round of the federal reserve's interest rate cut cycle has officially begun. the tone of preventive interest rate cuts during the year will continue. global liquidity tends to improve, which is relatively positive for the performance of hong kong stocks. with the policy as they are implemented one after another, the performance of hong kong stocks is expected to be boosted. it is expected that the probability of upward shock in the fourth quarter is high, and the upward space requires further observation of the recovery slope of the domestic economy and the subsequent increase in fiscal policy.