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with the continuous introduction of various major stimulus policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and existing mortgage interest rate cuts, a-shares and hong kong stocks have experienced epic surges. after a long period of bottoming, chinese assets finally ushered in a crazy week. as the stock market heats up sharply, the views of investors, brokers, and foreign investors on the chinese stock market are changing. ‍

“the unheard, the unseen”

on the eve of the national day, the a-share market, which carries the pain and hopes of more than 200 million investors, suddenly became "flexible" and gave everyone a golden week gift package.

the brewing of the violent storm began on september 24. at the press conference of the state council information office, the central bank announced a "package" of targeted monetary "quantitative easing" support policies for the stock market. as soon as the words fell, the three major indexes, shanghai composite index, shenzhen composite component index, and chinext index, rose by more than 4%, and the transaction volume of a-shares throughout the day approached one trillion yuan.

on september 25, the trading volume of the three major indexes continued to increase throughout the day, reaching 1.1 trillion yuan.

on september 26, the political bureau meeting of the cpc central committee further released good news such as vigorously guiding medium and long-term funds to enter the market and opening up the congestion points for social security, insurance, financial management and other funds to enter the market. the shanghai composite index also stood on the 3,000-point "lifeline" in one go. on that day, the shenzhen component index and the chinext index both rose by more than 4%, and the a-share trading level continued to rise to 1.16 trillion yuan throughout the day.

september 27 was even called the “great miracle day” by investors. within a day, investors witnessed all kinds of crazy history that were “unheard of and unseen.”

shortly after the opening of the market in the morning, due to transaction congestion, the stock bidding on the shanghai stock exchange experienced an unusually slow transaction confirmation. after 10 o'clock, the shanghai composite index simply walked out of a straight line. investors said helplessly: "the system was actually able to crash...it crashed for a full hour."

the shanghai stock exchange urgently issued the "explanation on abnormal situations in stock bidding transactions": the exchange is concerned that after the opening of today's stock bidding transactions, transaction confirmation was unusually slow. our firm has paid attention to the relevant situation as soon as possible and is investigating the relevant reasons.

while the shanghai composite index was "down", the shenzhen component index and the chinext index were rising step by step. this also worried investors who were anxious to "make a fortune". everyone complained to each other: "the midday break should be cancelled, and the daily limit should be set first and then rest."

fortunately, the subsequent trading situation of the shanghai stock exchange index resumed smoothly in the afternoon. although some investors still reported that some stock transactions were delayed, and the stocks they wanted to buy could not be purchased and the stocks they wanted to withdraw could not be withdrawn, the glitch did not prevent the overall market from rising sharply.

in the end, the market accelerated and surged higher, defeating the short sellers in one fell swoop. the shanghai composite index is approaching 3,100 points, and the chinext index once made history with an astonishing increase of 12%. over 5,200 a-shares were in the red throughout the day, with a one-day turnover of 1.46 trillion yuan, and the transaction volume hit a three-year high.

this crazy week of a-shares' long drought is destined to be unforgettable for stock investors.

within five trading days, the shanghai composite index rose by nearly 13%, the best weekly performance since november 2008; the shenzhen component index rose by 17.83% for the week, and the chinext index rose by 22.71%, also hitting a record high.

"in order to stay out of sight and out of mind at the beginning of the year, i uninstalled the trading software and installed it again last night." "i used to cry when i saw the big a when i was happy, but now when i am unhappy, i just look at the stock market." "my friend said from 'ankle cut', it has eased to 'waist cut', i said if you wait a little longer, you can save your head"... many investors who were "deeply invested" in big a expressed excitedly.

christians are also enjoying the "long-lost" spring. xiao chen, a beijing office worker with a fund holding of over 100,000 yuan, said that he bought a large number of funds in 2016, including liquor, medicine, mixed funds, etc. in 2020, her fund income once surged, and it was common for her to earn one or two thousand yuan in a single day. "the past two years have been negative. the maximum loss was 60,000 yuan, which made me want to cry without tears."

in the three days from september 25th to 27th, xiao chen's fund made a big turnaround, with income reaching 4197 yuan, 497 yuan and 4786 yuan respectively. "fortunately, i didn't cut the meat before. with this attitude, i have to keep throwing."

in the red atmosphere that filled the screen, the topic "are you on the bus?" came back again. it seems that if you don't run into the market, you will be sorry for this surge in the market.

since the a-share market will be closed during the national day holiday, the market will not open until october 8. netizens who were still unsatisfied called, "i hope big a will work overtime, preferably 24 hours a day." some investors were envious of hong kong stocks that opened as usual during the national day holiday.

on september 27, hong kong stocks were also very strong. the hang seng index rose by 3.55%, the hang seng china enterprises index rose by 3.01%, and the hang seng technology index rose by 5.78%.

among them, the hang seng index has risen by more than 20% in the 11 trading days since september 12, entering a "technical bull market." hong kong stocks wuxi apptec, wuxi biologics, longfor group, and meituan-w surged 23%, 15%, 16%, and 8% respectively on september 27.

the faith of investors is back

the stock market continues to rise sharply, making countless trapped investors happy. in just one week, many people who were once desperate were changed by the three positive lines and regained their confidence in big a. rather than getting stuck, the fear of "falling short" began to take over.

under the slogans "bulls come back quickly" and "full positions set sail" all over the internet, many investors shouted the slogan "go, go, go!" one investor said, "at least buy the csi 300 etf first. anyway, the interest rate on bank deposits is not high, and you have to be loaned out by the bank to buy stocks. they use it to buy it, so it's better for me to buy it myself."

other investors said that there are only two types of people who are not rushing into the stock market now. one is that their money has been locked in government bonds or other products, and the other is still maintaining a rational wait-and-see attitude, but the latter may be unable to bear it at any time. live and rush in.

and those brokerage firms that had previously been sluggish and had reduced rents and reduced manpower are finally getting busy again.

a large number of account managers of brokerage firms began accepting inquiries from customers early in the morning regarding account opening and buying matters, and also dealt with customer complaints. a stockholder said that he had withdrawn two bank fixed deposits today and placed a buy order early in the morning. it was close to 12 noon and he had not yet bought it. he was so anxious that he asked, "nowadays, do you need to rely on connections to buy a stock?"

another person in charge of a securities firm revealed to the media that 800 accounts were opened in one day on september 26.

▲ on september 27, the brokerage sector set off a surge of daily limit. data source/wind

an industry insider from changjiang securities happily told caijingtianxia: "the number of people inquiring about opening an account has suddenly increased. you can basically open an account immediately, but you will compare the preferential commission rates of each company."

more and more people are depositing money into their accounts. "it should start to increase significantly from september 26, and there will be even more today (september 27). if it is brewing during the national day holiday, there may be a peak of account openings after national day."

take the beijing guomao no. 1 office as an example. on the morning of september 27, several colleagues were having a heated discussion about which brokerage firm they should go to to open an account while working. they targeted a brokerage firm that could offer a commission of less than "one ten thousandth". when they applied online, they found that they had to queue up. they couldn't help but sigh, "opening an account with a brokerage firm that i didn't even want to see before has become unattainable."

brokerages eager to seize the skyrocketing dividends began to work overtime and compete to attract customers. guotai junan released the "account opening benefits" on xiaohongshu, saying that new customers can receive five major benefits including new customer financial coupons with an annualized interest rate of over 8%, and birthday financial coupons with an annualized interest rate of over 5%. each district sales department of galaxy securities also urgently produced videos related to "teaching you step by step the account opening process" and posted them on their own video accounts.

a salesperson from china merchants securities posted on wechat: "7×12 hours, no need to wait, just scan the qr code to open an account with one click. new and old customers are welcome to make referrals and can handle it at any time." he also said, "i am really busy. it feels like a long absence. "being busy is also happiness." when asked about any buying recommendations, he replied: "let's take a look next monday. there will be some headquarters strategies. it is recommended to buy industry or market index etfs, which is more worry-free."

however, compared with the excitement online, the popularity of some brokerage offline stores is relatively weak. at noon on september 27, caijingtianxia randomly visited two brokerage stores near china world trade center and found that the stores were not overcrowded. a securities firm set up a booth at the door to attract customers to open accounts. the staff told caijingtianxia that if the assets are hundreds of thousands, the commission can be charged at a rate of one ten thousandth, and can be negotiated further.

"it's normal for this to happen." the above-mentioned china merchants securities salesman said, "currently, there are more inquiries from old customers. it is better for new customers to be cautious and not to be impulsive. there is still one trading day before the holiday, and the price has risen too much in the past few days. , there will definitely be a callback.”

according to him, he has been responsible for less than 10 online account openings in the past two days, which is incomparable to the queues to open offline accounts during the early bull markets. "it has just rebounded, but many people are still waiting and watching."

xiao zhang, an investor with a heavy position in hong kong pharmaceutical stocks, is also waiting and watching. "although the pharmaceutical stocks in my hands have risen by more than 20% in the past few days, due to excessive early losses, they are still far from getting back their capital. i hope this time the hong kong stock market will be a reversal rather than a short-term rebound." in addition, what makes xiao zhang happy is that although the pharmaceutical stocks in his hand are still losing money, an e-commerce stock he bought has already made a profit of nearly 30%.

this time, is it different?

happiness came too suddenly. is the bull market really coming back at such a magical speed? regarding future operating strategies, many institutions, experts and scholars have clearly chosen to “go long.”

citic securities, the “no. 1 brokerage broker”, used a simple and crude word – “qian” as the title on its official wechat public account on september 26. it is clearly stated that we must take the lead and unite as one. the overall rise in the market is "a return of confidence and spirit."

economist ren zeping posted on social media: "large-scale economic stimulus has arrived. the stock market has skyrocketed in the past few days. the housing market is demanding stabilization. we must go all out to fight for the economy. the spring of china's economy is here."

coincidentally, foreign investors are also bullish and long on a-shares.

wall street tycoon and billionaire hedge fund founder david tepper said in an interview with foreign media on september 26: “i thought the fed’s actions last week would cause china to loosen its monetary policy, but i didn’t expect their policies to be so powerful. , i think it’s a complete transformation.”

he further stated that he holds more chinese stocks and has increased the allocation limit for chinese assets. he may double the investment limit for the chinese stock market and purchased more "china-related stocks" after the u.s. interest rate cut at the beginning of this month. everything".

david tepper also pointed out that stocks in the chinese market are cheaper than u.s. stocks. "you're going to see these large-cap stocks trading at single-digit earnings multiples with double-digit growth rates, in contrast to the s&p 500, which is trading at over 20 times earnings."

david tepper isn't the only one bullish on chinese stocks.

on september 26, local time, scott rubner, managing director of goldman sachs' global markets department, wrote in a report to clients: the chinese stock market has been trending strongly in recent days, with the nasdaq golden dragon index soaring 19% in the past four days. the chinese stock market should it will become a popular trading target for investors in november and december. "i really think this time is different for china," scott rubner said.

of course, there are also experts and scholars who have seen all the glory and dangers in the a-share market. they remind you that when the "mad cow" rises rapidly, you need to remain rational.

song qinghui, a well-known domestic economist, believes that the duration of this round of a-share surge still depends on a variety of factors, including the fundamentals of listed companies, market sentiment, policy support, capital flows, etc. market investors also need to pay close attention to the intensity of subsequent capital entry into the market, while paying attention to risk control and rational investment.

more experts and scholars are cautiously optimistic about the current market, reminding investors to pay attention to deterministic information from the policy level.

wang pengbo, a senior analyst in the financial industry at broadcom analysis, told caijingtianxia that judging from the various financial policies that have been introduced recently, we can see the government's determination to boost the economy and boost the stock market. another reason for the sharp rise in the stock market is that the china securities regulatory commission has introduced many policy systems to promote the normal and healthy development of the stock market. his advice to investors is to stay calm, pursue long-termism, and be a value investor.