there will be a battle in 2026? many parties compete for hegemony of glass substrates, and special glass manufacturing giants accelerate market expansion
2024-10-01
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moore's law is slowing down, and giants are scrambling to find new ways to improve chip performance. with many unique advantages, glass substrate technology is rising and becoming a hot new star in the semiconductor industry.
"whoever realizes large-scale commercialization of glass substrates first will be the new game changer in the substrate industry." this sentence reflects the fierce competition in the field of glass substrates in the era of computing power shortage. from intel taking the lead in entering the market, to samsung, amd, lg and other companies taking notice, replacing organic substrates with glass substrates has become an industry consensus, and major manufacturers are rushing to be the first to rush in.
“this must be a trend.” christian leirer, head of semiconductor advanced packaging glass solutions at special glass giant schott ag, said in a recent interview with the paper and other media that schott, like many players around the world, is optimistic about the role of glass in advanced huge potential in the field of chip packaging. "in the future, computing power speed requirements will become higher and higher, and we need to maximize the performance advantages of special glass. once various engineering challenges are overcome within our capabilities and the yield required for large-scale production is improved, this technology will be close to mass production. "production." he emphasized that as a new technology product, the commercial application of glass substrates still faces a series of practical challenges and requires coordinated efforts across the industry chain.
glass substrate, the new market favorite born to “break through the limits”
chip substrate is mainly used for system-level integration at the advanced packaging level of chips and is a key technology in the post-packaging process. beginning with leadframes in the 1970s, substrate design has gone through many iterations, with ceramic substrates replacing metal frames in the 1990s and organic substrates made from pcb-like materials and woven glass laminates around the turn of the century. the continuous upgrading of substrate materials promotes the continuous improvement of chip performance.
organic materials have been the protagonist of packaging substrates for more than 20 years, but as the number of chips and connections in a single package increases, organic substrates are approaching their physical limits.
the growing demand for more powerful computing power has given rise to new technological changes. special glass provides new possibilities for next-generation chips with its excellent heat resistance, dielectric properties and various coefficients of thermal expansion (cte). after long-term technical verification, industry leading companies have unanimously chosen special glass as one of the most promising new materials for next-generation chip packaging substrates, and have deployed related production lines in the past two years.
"the application of special glass in the field of chip carrier boards is relatively mature. as a technical application for advanced packaging substrates, major manufacturers have begun to make comprehensive arrangements." chen wei, general manager of schott group china, told the paper that in the post-moore era, chip characteristics the size is getting smaller and smaller, but the power and processing speed are greatly improved, creating new material requirements. “companies such as schott have both the materials and various development advantages required by the semiconductor industry, and the glass substrate market has emerged.”
the few major market players with the above capabilities are already feeling the rapid rise in new demand. chen wei analyzed that compared with existing organic substrates, glass substrates can achieve smaller and denser packaging while reducing connection lengths, thereby reducing the power consumption and systems of ai, high-performance computing (hpc) and data center chips. complexity, ultimately enabling faster, more energy-efficient computing. industry data shows that glass substrates can speed up chips by up to 40% and reduce energy consumption by up to 50%.
schott is no stranger to the industry. in the world's top photolithography machines, silicon wafers and exposure molds must be precisely positioned to create extremely fine structures in top microchips. schott's flexible light guides and other products are important components in the world's leading photolithography machines, ensuring the highest precision during the process. since these machines are used in all chip factories and idms (integrated device manufacturers) around the world, almost all computer chips come into contact with special glass materials from schott.
the industry predicts that by 2030, glass will become one of the key materials for chip packaging. facing the next generation of advanced packaging wave, in august this year, schott integrated internal resources to establish a new department "semiconductor advanced packaging glass solutions" to provide tailor-made special material solutions for the semiconductor industry. "we have previously promoted existing business units to serve the semiconductor industry. due to the growing demand in the industry, we have made such new adjustments internally." dr. christian leirer said.
giants compete for glass substrates, but commercialization challenges still exist
with the rise of advanced packaging, glass substrates have become an important battlefield in reshaping the industrial landscape and determining future success or failure.
since this year, discussions about glass substrates have continued to be hot. news that leading companies in chip design, production and packaging will use glass substrates to replace organic substrates is endless, and related concept stocks have set off multiple rounds of daily limit waves. as competition for high-performance ai chips intensifies, giants such as intel, nvidia, and amd are expected to adopt glass substrates as early as 2026.
in september 2023, intel took the lead in announcing the launch of advanced packaging glass substrates, with mass production planned from 2026 to 2030. intel said that its research work on glass substrates can be traced back to ten years ago, and it has invested more than us$1 billion in arizona, usa, to build r&d production lines. this move will help the company achieve the goal of 2030 in a single package. the goal of integrating one trillion transistors.
in terms of packaging technology innovation, intel led the industry in the transition from ceramic packaging to organic packaging in the 1990s, and was the first to achieve halogen-free and lead-free packaging.
samsung also sees glass substrates as a game-changing solution. in january this year, samsung announced its entry into the field of semiconductor glass substrates at ces 2024, and announced a roadmap for establishing a pilot line in 2024, mass production samples in 2025, and formal mass production in 2026. according to the plan, samsung electro-mechanics will install the required equipment on the pilot line by september this year and start operating its pilot production line in the fourth quarter, one quarter earlier than originally planned.
sk hynix is involved in this field through its us subsidiary absolics and plans to start mass production in early 2025, becoming one of the first companies to join the glass substrate competition.
not long ago, morgan stanley updated the supply chain situation of nvidia gb200, saying that the supply chain of nvidia gb200 dgx/mgx has been launched and will use glass substrates for advanced packaging.
according to prismark statistics, the global ic packaging substrate industry is expected to reach us$21.4 billion in 2026. with the entry of major chip giants, the replacement of existing solutions by glass substrates will accelerate. it is expected that the penetration rate of glass substrates will reach 30% within 3 years, and the penetration rate will reach over 50% within 5 years. the insight partners believes that the global market size of glass substrates is expected to grow from us$23 million this year to us$4.2 billion in 2034.
despite the significant potential advantages, as with any new technology, the road to commercialization of glass substrates faces a series of challenges such as processing, manufacturing testing, and cost.
industry opinion believes that although glass can overcome warpage and has good electrical properties, it has outstanding shortcomings such as being fragile and difficult to process, and there is still a long way to go to achieve mass production yield before actual delivery. the initial investment cost of enterprises is high. even if they invest heavily in technology development, if the business cannot make a profit, it will become a sunk cost.
"in the commercialization process, it is crucial to how the advantages of glass outweigh the disadvantages. we will try to use different methods to solve problems such as fragility, opening metallization, and yield. as the development process gradually proceeds, glass production technology the more professional you are and the more you cooperate with customers, the more solutions you will find.” christian leirer believes that as a new technology for high-end applications, glass substrates require close interaction with the industry chain to reach consensus on technical routes and products, which takes time. "in the early stages of market development, all parties may have different ideas on the cost issue. but we must first develop the market and then consider costs. as usage increases, costs will continue to decrease."
chen wei introduced to the paper that schott will debut its semiconductor packaging solutions based on special glass at the 7th china international import expo in november this year. "the driving force for future development will largely come from computing power, and special glass can help the chip industry reach new heights."
the paper reporter yang yang
(this article is from the paper. for more original information, please download the “the paper” app)
