a-shares have surged continuously. is it a rebound or a turnaround?
2024-10-01
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
changsha evening news all-media reporter cao kaiyang
taking advantage of the continuous surge in a-share prices before the national day, stockholder sister bo sold all the stocks worth more than 20,000 yuan. "i don't think about whether it will go up or down after the holiday. i will be safe and clear." have a refreshing national day.”
sister bo's approach is just a microcosm of many ordinary investors. so, after continuous surges, have a-shares just rebounded strongly, or has there been a fundamental change in trend? after the long national day holiday, how will a-shares perform in the fourth quarter of this year? what should investors do?
a-share surge benefited from multiple factors
how strong is the rise in a shares this time? the performance of the shanghai composite index is very telling. from september 18 to september 30, the shanghai composite index completed nine consecutive rises due to heavy volume. on september 24 and 26, it rose by more than 100 points every day. on september 30, it soared by 248.97 points, an increase of as much as 8.06%, and the trading volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets hit a record high that day. what factors support this strength?
man jun, an investment consultant at the hunan branch of vanhe securities, analyzed in an interview with reporters: in terms of systems, since this year, in the face of the weak capital market, the management has made drastic reforms with unprecedented intensity. we will strictly regulate ipo issuance and major shareholder reductions, strictly rectify all kinds of chaos, violations of laws and regulations, and implement penetrating supervision. at the same time, a series of policies and new regulations have been introduced to resolve the contradiction between supply and demand and the contradiction between major shareholders and small and medium-sized investors to protect the interests of investors, gradually eliminate market problems, and strive to rebuild a new open, fair and just market order. although some of these measures seemed to have no effect when they were first introduced, as the "bullets" flew for a period of time, they still appeared in the form of accumulation.
the supply of funds is more straightforward. the management has encouraged and historically innovatively opened up a variety of channels for funds to enter the market, unblocking the capital supply chain and perfectly solving worries about capital supply. "on september 24, the central bank's 'double arrows' injected huge financial energy into a-shares, solving the liquidity problem that has plagued a-shares for a long time." huang xinsheng, director of founder securities product center, told reporters that 500 billion the yuan swap facility loan "can only purchase a-share stocks", and the establishment of a 300 billion yuan special re-loan can and can only be used to buy back its own stocks. the latter's interest rate is only 2.25%, which is tantamount to "giving away money" for listed companies with higher dividend rates. more importantly, the above-mentioned 500 billion yuan and 3 trillion yuan are only the first phase. if the effect is good, they can be launched continuously. "back then, the country invested 4 trillion yuan to stimulate the economy. now such a huge amount of funds is used to directly stimulate the stock market, and the effect is self-evident."
continuous rises should only be the starting point of a bull market
"but now the global economic situation is worrying, and the chinese economy is also facing tremendous pressure. can the stock market really pick up?"
in the face of investors' doubts, industry insiders generally believe that it is the financial aspect that ultimately determines the rise and fall of a-shares, and now the financial aspect is strongly supporting the improvement of a-shares. one of the important reasons is that the federal reserve has entered an interest rate cut cycle to stimulate global economic recovery, international capital flows have reversed, and chinese assets that are in a low value position have begun to show strong gravitational pull. data shows that both the u.s. dollar index and the u.s. dollar offshore rmb exchange rate have been oscillating lower recently, and the trend is obvious and large. now the u.s. dollar index has shown a trend of falling below the 100 mark, while the u.s. dollar offshore rmb exchange rate is at on september 26, it effectively fell below the 7-digit mark. "after the u.s. dollar enters a weak cycle, a-shares will stage a strong performance, and such history will definitely repeat itself! based on the analysis of the current situation of all parties, i firmly believe that this time is not a rebound, but a reversal." huang xinsheng said.
the heroes see the same thing. pan jun also believes that a-shares, which are compounded by multiple factors, have experienced a strong rise in the short term, breaking through the annual line in one fell swoop, completing the construction of a large double bottom structure in terms of technical trends, investor confidence has been restored, and the foundation for the bull market has been laid. a research report from guojin securities shows that the federal reserve’s unexpected monetary actions and minutes all hint that the risk of a “hard landing” in the united states is increasing. based on the minutes of the federal reserve's interest rate meeting in september, on the one hand, the pressure of the u.s. economic slowdown is increasing, and the upward trend and momentum of the unemployment rate are strong; on the other hand, the constraint effect of inflation on monetary policy is showing marginal weakening. based on this background, a-shares, as a value depression in the global capital market, will further highlight their investment value, thereby supporting a-shares to continue their strong performance.
if a-shares reverse their decline and enter a bull market, it will naturally be a huge boon to the chinese economy. as mentioned above, sister bo said that she would use the profits earned from stocks to go shopping during the national day, and this causal relationship will ultimately effectively promote domestic consumption.
it is generally believed that big technology will have great potential
nothing can be achieved overnight, and the bull market cannot be achieved in one step. pan jun's analysis pointed out that a-shares experienced a blowout rise due to the superposition of multiple factors, and the continuous highs and lows brought short-term sentiment to a climax. after the short-term outbreak, a large amount of profits have been accumulated, and the policy stimulus effects will begin to recede and be digested. therefore, there is a high probability that in the fourth quarter, there will be a strong oscillation around the annual line, and the bottom will be fully consolidated before entering the upward cycle again.
based on the expectation of the return of the bull market, pan jun suggested that in the short term, we can focus on big finance as the standard bearer and pioneer of the bull market. this is also the direction that currently has the strongest resonance with funds. in the mid-term, we can focus on large consumption, real estate, new energy, and reverse recovery opportunities after severe oversold conditions. with the clearance of production capacity and the guidance of new industrial policies, we will gradually enter a restorative rebound. this is also the main position for institutional capital allocation. in the long term, we can focus on the direction of big science and technology. policies will guide industrial transformation and upgrading, and it is urgent to be independent and controllable. you need to pay attention to avoid sectors whose performance is lower than expected. in addition, there are problem companies with new policies and regulations. the new regulations impose stricter supervision and penalties on listed companies. the first quarter of next year will also be the first anniversary of the new regulations, so evasive and preventive actions must be taken before the annual report.
"i always believe that technology is productivity. in china's journey of strong development, the big technology sector will not only be closely connected with the national destiny, but will also definitely become the most potential investment target in the a-share market." huang xinsheng believes that in the long term, the metaverse, which is at the cusp of the storm, and the innovative drug sector, which is still at the bottom, are both expected to bring huge returns to investors.
