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a few days ago, an expert commented like this:

"if the russian army can defeat ukraine within a week, the vast majority of countries in the world will support russia. if it defeats ukraine within a month, 80% of the countries will support russia. if the war lasts for a year, only a few countries will support russia. now that the war has been going on for almost three years, there are few countries that support russia anymore. the same is true for the taiwan strait war. if china can capture taiwan within a week, most countries will support china. if china captures taiwan within a month, there will be none. how many countries support china? if it cannot win it within a year, china will be isolated internationally. "

russia-ukraine conflict

the author believes that what this expert said is quite pertinent. the degree of support a country can obtain during wartime is directly proportional to the speed of the war. russia has made such a mistake.

in fact, when the russo-ukrainian war first began, western countries did not have much support for ukraine, because western countries believed that ukraine would be defeated soon. there was no point in providing ukraine with large amounts of arms, and zelensky could not be allowed to serve as the captain of the transportation brigade.

however, as the war progressed, the ukrainian army became more and more courageous. western countries re-examined ukraine and their policies towards ukraine, and determined to vigorously assist ukraine, which caused a lot of trouble to russia. if the russian army could quickly once ukraine is resolved quickly, there will be no further problems.

the words of this expert also gave us a warning. to solve the taiwan issue, we must make decisions before taking action, be fully prepared, and achieve a quick decision in war. taiwan will be liberated within a week with thunderous momentum, without giving any chance to western countries to react. time, just like china's counterattack against india in 1962, after the united states and the soviet union resolved the cuban crisis, they discovered that china had taught india a lesson and there was no chance to intervene.

the same goes for china's war to liberate taiwan, which must be resolved quickly.

americans know this, and many military generals in taiwan also know this. for example, li tianduo, a well-known taiwanese speaker and retired colonel of the taiwan army, said this:

"mainland china will not take action if it cannot conquer taiwan within 3 to 5 days."

in fact, not only li tianduo thinks this way, but also many people on the island. they believe that the people's liberation army will fight quickly and solve the problem before the us warships arrive, and will not give the taiwan military time to react.

in order to cope with the rapid decisive war in mainland china, lai qingde launched a 400,000 militia plan.

the core of the so-called 400,000 militia plan is that the taiwan military can withstand the first wave of attacks and use the 400,000 militiamen as a reserve force to fight a protracted war with the people's liberation army and strive to last for 10 days to half a month to create conditions for the arrival of the us military, lai qingde said in order to increase defense resilience, lai qingde also specially announced the establishment of the "whole-society defense resilience committee".

this actually means using 400,000 people as cannon fodder.

taiwanese are not fools. according to an online survey conducted by taiwanese media, 58.6% of netizens disapprove of the training plan for 400,000 people because it is purely seeking death.

some netizens pointed out: lai qingde’s own children and grandchildren are all in the united states, why don’t they return to taiwan to participate in the 400,000-person plan?

lai qingde

of course, lai qingde did not answer the torture of the souls of the taiwanese people. he did not feel heartbroken to let the taiwanese people die, but he would definitely not agree to let his children and grandchildren die.

lai ching-te's 400,000-man plan reflects lai ching-te's lack of confidence in the taiwan military's defense capabilities. in fact, not only lai ching-te has no confidence, the americans also have no confidence.

as early as 5 years ago, us think tanks deduced the taiwan war and believed that taiwan could survive for about 3 months. however, in the past two years, us military think tanks believe that it can only survive for 1 to 2 weeks, and that it can survive for 1 month. yes, the most optimistic estimate is 3 months.

however, taiwanese independence diehards don't think so. they compare the military strength of ukraine and taiwan and believe that ukraine has been able to survive for almost three years and taiwan's military can survive for a year and a half.

however, anyone who knows the military knows that ukraine is connected to european countries and can be transported by land, sea and air, while taiwan is an isolated island and relies entirely on sea and air transportation. when the people's liberation army has air and sea control, support from western countries is basically impossible. not going in.

a country's war strength depends on the combination of people and weapons and equipment, and behind it is a country's industrial capabilities.

musk, the world's richest man, recently said that china's manufacturing capacity has surpassed that of the united states. this remark made many americans unhappy and also panicked taiwanese independence activists.

musk

because mainland china has far more soldiers than the united states, and its industrial capabilities are stronger than those of the united states, how will this war be fought?

but having said that, we also have concerns, otherwise we would have taken action earlier. the author believes that we have been making solid preparations and making complete preparations. once we take action, we will liberate taiwan in a short time, and the longest time will not exceed for one week, americans had no time to rescue and did not dare to rescue.