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a shares exploded on monday. the shanghai stock index jumped short and opened higher that day, rising all the way, rising more than 8% throughout the day, and continuously breaking through three integer marks of 3100 points, 3200 points, and 3300 points.

as of the close of the day, the shanghai composite index reported 3,336 points, an increase of 8.06%; the shenzhen component index reported 10,529 points, an increase of 10.67%; the gem index reported 2,175 points, an increase of 15.36%.

record volume

a-shares surged in volume today, with trading volume rising sharply. as of the close of trading, the total turnover of a-shares in shanghai and shenzhen stock markets was 2.593 billion yuan (rmb, the same below), setting a new historical record. it is worth noting that the trading volume of a-shares exceeded 1 trillion yuan in less than 35 minutes after the opening of the market that day, setting a new record for the fastest "trillion" in history. this is the fourth consecutive trading day for a-shares to exceed 1 trillion yuan.

in terms of sectors, all sectors surged, with software development, semiconductors, and batteries leading the gains. among them, the brokerage sector, regarded by some investors as the "bull market flag bearer", hit its daily limit early that day. except for haitong securities and guotai junan, which were suspended from trading, 41 listed brokerage firms collectively hit their daily limit.

there are signs that as a-shares continue to strengthen, investors' enthusiasm has been greatly stimulated, and a large amount of money has entered the market.

according to data from the industrial and commercial bank of china, the bank’s net value of changes in investor bank-securities transfer funds soared to 7.04 on september 27, significantly higher than the 0.66, 2.15, 1.4, and 4.4 in the previous four trading days. the weekly average was 3.13, a record high in 2021 a new high in three and a half years.

the icbc bank-securities transfer net value index is defined as the ratio of the net amount of bank-securities transfers from icbc accounts to the securities market on the corresponding trading day to the daily average amount of net funds transferred into the securities market from icbc accounts in 2017. it intuitively reflects all icbc transactions on the trading day. the net amount of funds transferred into the securities market by investors.

from the perspective of structural data, the participation of individual investors is particularly prominent. data shows that from september 23 to september 27, icbc’s individual investor bank-securities net transfer index continued to maintain a positive value. on september 27, it even reached 5.2, which is the icbc institutional investor’s bank-securities net transfer index. 2.83 times, highlighting the enthusiasm of individual investors to participate in this rising market.

it is worth noting that many of these incremental funds come from new investors. according to media reports, many securities firms have seen a surge in account opening applications.

guoyuan securities opened more than 3,000 new customers from september 24 to september 27, more than doubling the previous daily average; guotai junan said that in recent trading days, only guotai junan qingpu branch is looking at the situation , not only did the number of account openings in a single day reach the historical peak since the establishment of the branch, but the number of daily account openings increased by nearly 10 times compared with the average of the previous month.

according to the person in charge of the brokerage business department, among the investors who opened new accounts in the past week, the "post-00s" and "post-90s" accounted for more than 70%. some brokerages have arranged to be on duty during the national day to welcome the account opening boom.

recently, foreign investment banks such as jpmorgan chase, goldman sachs, and ubs have all spoken out and are firmly optimistic about chinese assets. taken together, foreign investment institutions believe that the recent policy "combination" has a significant boosting effect on economic fundamentals and the stock market. under the influence of multiple positive factors, now is a good time to invest in the chinese stock market, and they are optimistic about the rebound of the stock market.

stephen jen, ceo of the british hedge fund eurizon slj capital and the well-known proposer of the "dollar smile theory", is the latest tycoon to join this camp. according to him, chinese stocks will continue to rise and the yuan will appreciate, driven by recent stimulus policies.

jen said in the latest report: "investors have a low weight on all chinese stocks, chinese stocks are seriously undervalued, and a sharp rebound is entirely possible." he said last month that as the united states cuts interest rates, chinese companies may selling $1 trillion in u.s. dollar-denominated assets, a move that could boost the yuan's value by 10%.

in addition to being bullish, foreign capital is also actively doing so. guosen securities recently released a report stating that since late september, foreign capital has accelerated its inflow into the chinese stock market. in 2024, the net inflow of chinese equity funds has exceeded that of the whole of 2021. take the long-china etf products in the u.s. stock market as an example. the weekly turnover of most products as of september 27 increased by 6-7 times compared with the previous week.

in addition, the transaction volume of northbound funds has increased significantly, the proportion of transactions has increased, and the scale of net inflows may expand. from early august to september 20, the average daily transaction volume of northbound funds was approximately 95 billion yuan; from september 23 to september 26, the average daily transaction volume of northbound funds exceeded 180 billion yuan. considering the performance of a-shares, the expansion of northbound capital turnover may be more affected by the inflow of northbound capital.

from february 6 to february 8 at the beginning of this year, against the backdrop of a sharp rebound in the stock market, the average daily turnover of northbound funds also rapidly expanded to nearly 180 billion yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately 15 billion yuan. considering that this round of stock market support is stronger, policies are more three-dimensional and comprehensive, and stock indexes are rising faster, the net inflow of northbound funds may be larger than at the beginning of the year.

with the national day holiday approaching, where a-shares will go after the holiday has become a topic of concern to many investors.

the suggestions and attitudes of private equity institutions can provide certain reference. the survey results of the private equity ranking network show that 69.23% of private equity investors are optimistic about the market situation after the national day, believing that driven by favorable policies, the market is more likely to stabilize at a low level and gradually rebound; 23.08% of private equity investors are neutral. , believe that although the market's downside risks are limited, it still faces certain difficulties in turning around; 7.69% of private equity investors are cautious, believing that it will take a process for market sentiment to pick up, and the market may adjust after the holiday.

deng lijun, an analyst at huajin securities, said that judging from historical experience, a-share prices are more likely to rise after the national day, which is mainly affected by policies and external events, domestic and overseas economic data, the u.s. dollar index, etc. currently, external events and policies may be positive and risks are limited. overseas economic data may be weak during the holidays, but domestic holiday consumption data may continue to pick up, the u.s. dollar index may maintain a weak trend during the holidays, and global capital market risk appetite is expected to rise.

hualong securities analyst zhu jinjin believes that a-shares will be positive in october. the main reasons are: first, the intensive introduction of capital market policies. the political bureau meeting of the central committee proposed efforts to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium and long-term funds into the market, support mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, and promote the reform of public funds. relevant policies are conducive to increasing market liquidity and activity, and market micro-liquidity is expected to improve.

second, there is a solid foundation for the rmb exchange rate to remain basically stable in the medium and long term. coupled with the start of interest rate cuts by the federal reserve and the weakening of the u.s. dollar, the value of rmb assets will increase, and the equity market is expected to receive more attention.

third, china's economy is expected to be stable. there are more policies and measures to stimulate holiday consumption, consumer data may have better feedback, and real estate policies are expected to further release consumption and investment demand, which is expected to drive further improvement in domestic demand and enhance market fundamental expectations. fourth, after the market has risen sharply in the short term, the valuation is still reasonable, and it is in a period of medium and long-term allocation opportunities.

(source: guoshi express)