news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

the scale of the wealth effect that china's stock market surge will bring to the entire golden week will determine how long the current stock market rally can last.

take a look at the differentiation of china’s pmi indicators:

china's official manufacturing pmi (which favors state-owned enterprises) reported 49.8, better than expected

caixin manufacturing pmi (focused on small businesses) reported 49.3, lower than the forecast of 50.5

although both surveys are a snapshot of business conditions on the eve of the launch of the stimulus policy "bazooka", they show that small businesses are undoubtedly more pessimistic - despite the central bank's previous easing measures on the supply side, such as reducing the 7-day reverse repo interest rates and deposit reserve ratios, etc.

the improvement in small business and consumer confidence and the resulting rebound in consumption will be critical to assessing the effectiveness of china's stimulus measures.

bloomberg intelligence believes that rising stock prices will boost consumers' spirits for the holidays. china has already boosted property market sentiment this weekend, with shanghai, shenzhen and guangzhou all easing housing purchase restrictions.

since the a-share market will be closed for a week during the national day holiday, it is worth paying attention to alternative indicators of chinese consumer confidence, including the hang seng index, theater box office revenue and u.s.-listed chinese stock etfs.