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on the last trading day before the national day, the enthusiasm for a-shares continues.

as of the close, the shanghai stock exchange index rose 8.06%, standing firm at 3,300 points, a single-day increase of 248.97 points, the shenzhen stock exchange component index rose 10.67%, and the chinext index rose 15.36%. more than 700 stocks in the two cities reached their daily limit, and more than 2,700 stocks rose by more than 10%.

the total transaction volume of the three cities of shanghai, shenzhen and north china exceeded 2.61 trillion yuan, setting a new record for the highest transaction volume in history set on may 28, 2015.

under the "mad bull", stock market jokes and memes emerged one after another. some investors were afraid that the market closure would delay making money and suggested "cancel the holiday", while some official accounts shouted "mommy, change the batch";

the ones that spread the fastest were all kinds of brokerage clients under the "heavy rewards" of the stock market, including those on crutches, those with tonsures, and even 90-year-olds who came to open accounts...

hui hui, i have been speculating in stocks for so many years, spent two years at the bottom, and chatted with my family until my lips were worn out. today, i can finally justifiably shout:

niu hui! come home soon!

the brokerage companies were busy and the settlement was working overtime, but the trading volume in half an hour still crashed the app.

the hot market on monday was foreshadowed by last weekend.

on september 29, china securities depository and clearing co., ltd. announced that considering the recent rapid growth in the number of brokerage account openings, china securities clearing co., ltd. will temporarily open on weekends to provide a production service environment.

after china clearing announced "temporary overtime", the brokerage also arranged online account opening reviews simultaneously on the same day, and successively carried out business tests related to platforms such as bidding and comprehensive industry, mainly to verify the accuracy of relevant technology platform businesses and technical adjustments.

however, the brokers who worked overtime still underestimated the enthusiasm of the market.

on the morning of september 30, just half an hour after the market opened, the trading volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded 900 billion yuan. immediately, investors on major platforms began to report that securities firms were experiencing "abnormal transactions". citic securities' bank-to-securities function was suspended, tonghuashun login status was always "logging in", china merchants securities and guosen securities app crashed, and position information was not available. show.

some investors said that guosen securities customer service responded that the trading software crashed because the order was too large.

the "collapse" of stock trading software also confirmed the rising market sentiment from the side.

ifeng.com finance's "financial serial talk" found that during the "early war" when trading volume surged, some securities firms also "raised money" in advance. many securities firms, including sdic securities, guohai securities, and founder securities, issued announcements announcing the suspension of next-day entrustment services. . the market speculates that several brokerages are making emergency expansion changes to network bandwidth and host resources for transactions in response to the surge in transaction volume.

including the shanghai stock exchange, which was "collapsed" last week, after responding to market concerns and apologizing for system failures, it launched a network-wide test on september 29 to simulate trading and clearing for one trading day. the test content included verification of continuous bidding. when a large number of orders are declared together during a period, the business processing of the bidding platform runs smoothly, etc.

can the second-highest weekly increase in history help big a successfully build a bottom?

last week, both the shanghai composite index and the csi 300 recorded their largest weekly gains since 2008. immediately afterwards, interest rates were cut, interest rates on existing mortgages were cut, new monetary tools were created to support the stock market, and a special re-loan of rmb 300 billion was created to support repurchases and holdings. the positive policy signals of quasi-funds were continuously released, and a whole set of combination punches dispersed the long-term haze of big a, setting off a hearty short-squeezing and rising market.

however, apart from the excitement of "one positive line changes emotions, three positive lines change beliefs", some investors are also a little panicked. has the market on the right been established? have market expectations really been completely reversed? if you follow the trend and line up to enter now, will you be short-changed?

judging from historical experience, the success of a-shares in "building a bottom" is similar, generally showing the characteristics of "policy bottom - market bottom - fundamental bottom".

the current market situation is driven by loose and positive policy signals.

on september 24, the "one bank, one bureau, one meeting" policy gift package was first to ignite market enthusiasm;

on september 26, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work, and released a strong and clear fiscal policy signal;

on september 27, the central bank issued an announcement on lowering reserve requirements and interest rates at the same time, deciding to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from that day; the 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate in the open market was adjusted from the previous 1.70% to 1.50%. 20 basis points, simultaneous implementation of rrr and interest rate cuts;

on september 29, the state council executive meeting was held to study and deploy the implementation of a package of incremental policies;

on the evening of september 29, the people's bank of china and the state administration of financial supervision jointly released four financial support real estate policies.

a series of policy combinations have opened up space for upward revisions of market expectations and provided conditions for funds to drive the stock market upward. in particular, the politburo meeting "should increase the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, work hard to boost the capital market, support mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, and introduce a private economy promotion law..." etc. the statement released a strong and clear fiscal policy signal, and many institutions have stated that the "policy bottom" has arrived.

haitong securities released a research report saying that the policy combination is based on the real economy and takes into account the capital market. in addition, the stock market was at a historic bottom in the early stage, and the conditions for the start of the intermediate market are already in place;

shenwan hongyuan strategy stated that the "policy bottom" established that the market profit-making effect after the holiday may still be strong;

gf macro said that the politburo meeting on september 26 further confirmed the basic confirmation of the "policy bottom" for the start of a stable growth cycle.

the cicc research report stated that the three types of auxiliary signals (valuation, capital, behavior) have all prompted a-shares to enter a bottom state in the early stage, and policy signals have begun to appear. fundamental signals may yet to be improved by active policies, but market confidence is marginally positive. repair.

image source: cicc research department

the cicc research report also mentioned that after the recent rapid rise in the market, it is expected that with the rapid restoration of valuations and short-term profit-making funds, historical experience cannot rule out that the short-term upward slope will slow down or have twists and turns, but combined with policies the signal is still emerging, and the current market upward trend is still expected to continue. and from the perspective of some types of funds, such as private equity funds, whose transactions are relatively flexible, the historically low position levels may be a reflection of the position levels of most institutional investors. it is expected that there may still be some funds to be added during this rapid rise. this part funds may become potential long positions in the market.

in 2014, the a-share market bottomed out for a long time. the average cost of investors fell back to extremely low levels, which brought about the profit-making effect, and the market rebounded.

image source: cicc research department

teacher ren zeping, who shouted "five thousand points is not a dream" in the last round, also said, "when the country is in trouble, we miss our good generals, and when times are tough, we miss our loyal ministers." as an ordinary economics researcher, i dare not forget about the country despite my humble position. i have worked for 20 years. "years of economic situation analysis", "the view on the market is just one word: buy!"

in short, under the optimistic expectations of "doing things first" on the policy side, institutions generally believe that the rise of a-shares may continue, and there is no need to worry too much about the downward slope or short-term setbacks in the future.