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this year's no. 18 typhoon "santoer" is approaching fiercely, "jumping three levels in a day" and intensifying to super typhoon level. today (september 30) it has entered my country's 24-hour warning line. it is expected that "santauer" will make landfall on the southwestern coast of taiwan island on october 2, and may become the strongest typhoon to land in my country in october. affected by factors such as topography and cold air, the wind and rain on taiwan island will be very shocking, and the cumulative rainfall in some areas may reach 1,200 mm. the period affected by the typhoon coincides with the national day holiday. it is recommended that the public in taiwan, fujian and other places take defensive measures in advance and avoid traveling during periods of strong wind and rain.

"santauer" quickly transformed into a super typhoon and jumped three levels in one day

in september this year, typhoons in the northwest pacific and south china sea were very active. a total of 8 typhoons were generated, which was significantly more than the same period in normal years. "shan tuo'er" was formed in the northwest pacific at 8:00 on september 28. thanks to favorable conditions such as high sea temperature and weak vertical wind shear, "shan tuo'er" rapidly increased in intensity and "jumped three levels in a row" within one day. , from a severe tropical storm at 2 a.m. on the 29th, to a super typhoon at 2 a.m. today.

↑ today, the eye of "shanduo'er" is clear. (picture: national satellite meteorological center)

huo yunyi, a meteorological analyst at china weather network, analyzed that "shanduoer" moves slowly and has more time to absorb energy from the sea. at noon today, its cloud system is symmetrical, the circulation is tight, the eye area is clearly visible, and convection around the eye area is strong. the sea surface and circulation conditions around "shanduoer" are ideal, and its intensity will continue to increase.

"santauer" may be the strongest typhoon to land in my country in october

the central meteorological observatory predicts that "shanduo'er" will move west-north to north at a speed of 10 to 15 kilometers per hour, and its intensity will also increase. it will make landfall on the southwestern coast of taiwan island from the afternoon to evening the day after tomorrow ( super typhoon level, level 16 to level 17, 52 to 58 meters/second), the peak intensity of "santa'er" will reach level 17 or above (62 meters/second) in the future.

typhoons that land on taiwan island are mostly concentrated from july to september, and are relatively rare in october, and most of them are "ruthless". meteorological big data from the china weather network shows that from 1949 to 2023, four typhoons landed on taiwan island in october, all of which were severe typhoon levels. if "santa'er" makes landfall at super typhoon level, it will be the strongest typhoon to land on taiwan island in october. it may also surpass "rainbow" that landed in zhanjiang, guangdong in 2015 and become the strongest typhoon to land in my country in october.

judging from historical data, typhoons most often "come ashore" in hualien, taitung and yilan in the eastern part of taiwan island. however, "shanduoer" does not follow the usual path and may take the "turn back and dig out" path.

why did "shanduoer" take an unusual path? huo yunyi said that there are high-pressure circulations on the east and west sides of "shanduo'er". in the early stage, the guidance of the high pressure on the west side is more obvious, making it move south first. in the later period, the eastern subtropical high pressure expands westward and strengthens, which will guide "shanduo'er" to turn around and head north. , and then it will move west-north-north along the periphery of the subtropical high pressure, making a big turn in its path, and may "come ashore" in the southwest of taiwan island, where typhoons rarely land.

be wary of typhoons and cold air combining to create strong winds and rain

huo yunyi reminded that such a moving path means that "shanduo'er" will cross the central mountains of taiwan island. under the effect of terrain uplift, there may be astonishing rainfall in the southern and eastern parts of taiwan island. in addition, when encountering cold air from the south, disaster impacts may also occur. upgrade. starting today, the wind and rain brought by "shan tuo'er" will obviously intensify. tomorrow and the day after tomorrow will be the core period of impact. among them, taiwan island will face the most violent wind and rain from "shan tuo'er", which is quite extreme.

at present, strong cold air has arrived from henan to hubei and the sichuan basin. tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, the cold air will join forces with the typhoon, and under the effect of the terrain lifting, thetaiwan islandit brings concentrated and violent rainfall, in which the terrain uplift in the east and south is more obvious and the rain is more intense.the cumulative rainfall in some areas may reach 1,200 mm.

after "shanduoer" lands on taiwan island, it will move northward and enter the east china sea. there will still be variables in the trend thereafter. after "shanduoer" lands on taiwan island, if it combines with the westerly trough, its northward speed will be faster, and it may move towards japan; andif the subtropical high pressure strengthens and extends westward again, "shanduoer" may move towards the coastal areas of eastern my country.the follow-up situation still needs to be closely monitored.

china weather network reminds that the core period of the impact of typhoon "santole" coincides with the national day holiday. the wind and rain in the southeastern coastal areas have intensified, especially in taiwan island. the wind and rain are extreme. the coasts of fujian and zhejiang need to be more vigilant about strong winds. it is recommended that the public prepare for typhoons in advance. take measures to avoid going out during strong wind and rain periods and stay away from areas with higher risk of meteorological disasters.