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china minmetals designed the world's most advanced blast furnace for india, which was successfully ignited and put into operation. xiang ligang saw this news and went crazy on the spot: helping india design and supply the world's largest blast furnace, is this money also a loan from china? what is your strategic view and what is the overall situation?

in fact, not only minmetals, there are many heavy-asset companies investing in india. for example, construction machinery manufacturer sany heavy industry invested more than 750 million rupees in a localized manufacturing plant in pune, india, and has more than 25,000 units in the indian market.

baosteel invested us$40 million to set up a wholly-owned factory in india with a designed annual production capacity of 150,000 tons.

white goods giant haier has built two industrial parks in india and has become the fastest-growing global home appliance brand in india.

although the industry has strong resistance to investing in india, chinese companies are too capable. some people in the industry shouted: help india develop vital basic industrial capabilities, and this country is still a potential global power that is hostile to china. our companies are poor and crazy. already?

no wonder everyone is against investing in india, becauseexporting industrial capabilities to india may bring four deadly boomerangs:

one is to give away indian industries for free, which in turn swallows supply chain orders related to chinese industries.

the mobile phone industry is a typical lesson. india’s share of manufacturing iphones is all taken from china, because only china and india are manufacturing iphones in the world. from 2024 to now, apple's sales in china have dropped by 6.7%, while sales in india have increased to 6.7%. sales of mobile phones in china are expected to be 289 million units, and sales of mobile phones in india are expected to be 135 million units.

secondly, it is easy to not receive the money you owe when investing in india.

because industrial infrastructure generally requires loans. for example, when india launched a global bidding for a high-speed rail project with a total length of 1,500 kilometers from mumbai to new delhi and an estimated total investment of us$100 billion, no one came to bid becausethe winning bidder is required to advance funds to help india build high-speed rail for free.the construction costs will be slowly repaid from india's high-speed rail profits over the next few decades.

according to the old indian tradition, if it is built in india, it is an asset of india and you cannot get it back. india has a tradition of not paying back debts, which is equivalent to giving away money and industry to people.

many of our domestic companies have provided a lot of support to india's infrastructure and other related industries in the past. as early as 2008, shanghai electric went to india and built six 660mw power stations for india, worth us$1.31 billion. in june last year, shanghai electric issued a refutation of rumors saying that "shanghai electric was defrauded of 8.8 billion by india and was instead compensated for 2.1 billion." relevant reports seriously distorted the facts. however, it is also true that chinese companies invest in india's basic industries and there are economic disputes between the two parties. behind this is the blood and tears lesson of india's failure to repay its debts.

third, if investment in india creates a herd effect, it will slow down the development of manufacturing in the central and western regions of my country.

due to india’s hostility to chinese investment，after 2021, the investment of chinese companies in india will be greatly reduced compared with the previous decade. companies such as luxshare precision and byd have canceled plans to invest and build factories there. as of the end of 2023, the total investment by chinese companies in india was only us$9 billion.

but sometimes what is feared is the herd effect. if a company passes by and creates a demonstration effect, then a large number of companies will follow suit and rush to make money, and even compete to lower prices to compete for projects. this will promote india to quickly accelerate the development of the entire industry chain and drive massive employment.

what is the impact of this? our current domestic employment situation is very severe, and the national strategy is now to guide technology, capital, and labor-intensive industries to transfer to the central and western regions. investing in india will obviously squeeze the domestic job market and compete with the manufacturing industry in the central and western regions for market share. funds, slowing down the development process in the central and western regions.

fourth, help india take over the manufacturing capacity of europe and the united states, and in turn deal with china

some people say that china can make a cylindrical blast furnace for iron-making, and japan, south korea, the united states and europe can even make it. this should be a relatively mature industrial chain, and there is no problem of who is stuck by whom. chinese companies take over this job. as long as the core technology is not leaked out of china, not only can they make a lot of money, but will india be at your mercy?

but the problem is, first of all, don't overestimate these western countries. first, after so many years of de-industrialization, western countries have been unable to put together a complete industrial chain in many industrial industries. second, in the past, western multinational companies suffered a lot in india and played tricks with india, except for the east india company. basically, they have never played in india. do you think china’s state-owned enterprises have the wisdom to take advantage of india?

at present, europe, the united states and japan are teaming up with india to replace china's industrial chain. this is not our imagination, but a fact that they have widely advertised and openly publicized. however, china's help in building india's infrastructure is precisely helping india to become bigger and stronger in manufacturing. in fact, they fulfilled their wish and helped india take over the manufacturing capacity of europe and the united states, which in turn dealt with china.

therefore, chemical fertilizers, thermal power, shield machines, the latest technology heavy equipment, etc. cannot be exported to build factories casually, and must be approved. the lessons of the past are still fresh in my mind. india bought back 8 tbms from china. in order to dismantle and learn the core technology, chinese engineers went to the after-sales service to assemble them, but they were rejected by the indian side. the indian engineers picked up the manual and "read it" for two months but failed to understand it. principle of operation. although india cannot build it, india has now used it to dig tunnels in southern tibet! increase india's ability to mobilize troops to the chinese border many times.

now europe and the united states are uniting to sanction our high technology, but we have given away our high technology, core technology and basic capabilities. it is indeed worth thinking about. high technologies such as the core capabilities of heavy industry and basic industry are all for food. it is an important weapon of the country, how can it easily help layout in india.

china minmetals helps india design and build blast furnaces. behavior like this is transferring industrial capabilities. this kind of investment will only have disadvantages in the long run, but no benefits. it is not in china's interests no matter how you look at it. it's time for us to wake up.

author: wang xinxi