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the "black swan" in japan's political arena has struck, which has had a huge impact on the market.

the "hawkish" shigeru ishiba was unexpectedly elected as the new president of japan's liberal democratic party, causing the japanese stock market to plummet. this morning, the japanese stock market suffered a violent sell-off. as of press time, the nikkei 225 index plummeted by more than 1,800 points, a drop of 4.5%, and the topix index fell by 2.7%.

the market is worried that ishiba's "hawkish" stance may bring huge uncertainty to the japanese market. some analysts say that with shigeru ishiba taking over as prime minister of japan, japan's 12-year-old "abenomics" is likely to come to an end. his victory will clear the way for the bank of japan to further raise interest rates.

in addition to the impact on japan's political arena, there is also a big negative news for japan's economy. according to the latest data, japan's initial value of industrial output in august fell by 3.3% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the expected decline of 0.9%; japan's initial value of annual industrial output in august fell by 4.9%, which was also significantly lower than the expected decline. 1.3%. japanese government officials said a drop in auto production in august contributed to the decline in overall output.

plunged more than 1800 points

on september 30, the japanese stock market encountered "black monday" and funds sold wildly. as of 08:30 beijing time, the nikkei 225 index plummeted by more than 1,800 points, a drop of 4.5%, and the topix index fell by 2.7%.

among them, japanese real estate stocks plummeted, sumitomo real estate development plummeted by more than 8%, and mitsubishi real estate fell by more than 7%; japanese automobile stocks generally fell, with suzuki motor and mazda motor falling by nearly 7%, and toyota motor and honda motor falling by more than 6%.

at the same time, most asia-pacific stock markets were lower, with the msci asia pacific index falling 1%.

according to the news, on september 30, local time, japanese prime minister-elect shigeru ishiba has confirmed that the vote for the japanese house of representatives election will be held on october 27 and the results will be announced. on september 27, local time, voting for the presidential election of the liberal democratic party of japan officially began. in the end, shigeru ishiba won the majority of votes in the second round of voting and was elected as the new president of the liberal democratic party. if nothing unexpected happens, he will be nominated by congress to take over as prime minister on october 1.

the market is worried that ishiba's "hawkish" stance may bring huge uncertainty to the japanese market. it previously publicly supported the bank of japan's policy of steadily raising interest rates and expressed concerns about the depreciation of the yen.

it should be pointed out that this is different from abenomics, which supports loose monetary policy and advocates active expansion of fiscal spending. ishiba supports the return to normalization of monetary policy and takes a positive stance on fiscal consolidation.

barclays analysts naohiko baba and ryuichiro hashimoto said in a report on september 27 that ishiba's victory may indicate that the bank of japan's monetary policy normalization process will be supported. reuters quoted analysts as saying that shigeru ishiba's coming to power has cleared an obstacle for the bank of japan to further raise interest rates.

after he was elected as the new president of the liberal democratic party, the exchange rate of the yen against the us dollar once exceeded 370 basis points, rising by more than 1% during the day.

"ishiba shigeru's victory will make it easier for the bank of japan to normalize monetary policy. in terms of economic policy, japan is bidding farewell to abenomics," said takeshi minami, chief economist at norinski bank.

regarding the fiscal deterioration of japan and its central bank, ishiba also attributed these to abenomics.

said kazutaka maeda, an economist at meiji yasuda research institute. the impact of abenomics will basically disappear, and the bank of japan’s next interest rate hike will come as early as december.

earlier, bank of japan governor kazuo ueda said that if the inflation rate continues to stabilize at its forecast of 2%, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates. but he stressed that the central bank would take time to assess the impact of global economic uncertainty on the recovery of japan's fragile economy.

in addition to the impact on japan's political arena, japan's economy has also experienced considerable negative effects. according to the latest data, japan's initial value of industrial output in august fell by 3.3% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the expected decline of 0.9%; japan's initial value of annual industrial output in august fell by 4.9%, which was also significantly lower than the expected decline. 1.3%, the previous value was 2.9%.

japanese government officials said a drop in auto production in august contributed to the decline in overall output. output from chipmaking equipment also fell due to weak overseas demand.

shigeru ishiba’s latest statement

since being elected as the new president of the liberal democratic party of japan, shigeru ishiba has begun intensively planning the personnel layout.

in terms of high-level personnel of the liberal democratic party, shigeru ishiba plans to use the current liberal democratic party general affairs chairman yu moriyama as the secretary-general, former prime minister yoshihide suga as the vice president of the liberal democratic party; the current finance minister suzuki shunichi will serve as the liberal democratic party general affairs chairman.

in terms of cabinet personnel, shigeru ishiba plans to keep the current chief cabinet secretary hayashi masaru in office, and former chief cabinet secretary and former minister of health, labor and welfare katsunobu kato to serve as finance minister.

shigeru ishiba said on an nhk morning show on the 29th that he would not rule out the possibility of dissolving the house of representatives and holding a general election in october. the latest poll results released by japan's "mainichi shimbun" on the 29th showed that 52% of the people surveyed said they were "looking forward to" ishiba shigeru's new regime, and 30% said they were "not looking forward to it."

when talking about the personnel arrangements of the party's top leaders and the new cabinet, ishiba said, "with the general election coming soon, we must build a winning layout and appoint the most suitable candidates."

in the face of violent market fluctuations, ishiba seemed intent on calming market concerns. shigeru ishiba released "dovish" remarks, saying that japan needs to continue to implement loose monetary policy. speaking on sunday, ishiba stressed the importance of cooperation between the bank of japan and the government to maintain economic stability.

ishiba's remarks come at a time when the bank of japan's interest rate policy has attracted much attention. regarding possible interest rate hikes, he said: "this is a matter for the bank of japan to decide. the bank of japan is responsible for the mission of achieving price stability and will work closely with the government to make decisions."

the incoming prime minister made the government's stance on monetary policy clear, asserting that "monetary policy must generally remain accommodative given current economic conditions." this stance indicates that japan's unique loose monetary policy in recent years will continue.