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lin yuan's "voice from the firewire": the real bull market has not yet begun, stay firmly in a-shares

2024-09-30

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september 29th - in the eyes of many investors is the "first weekend after the bull market", tens of billions of private equity funds are not "idle".

linyuan is an example.

as the first generation a-share niu san and the first generation head of sunshine private equity, lin yuan is still active at the forefront of investment.

in the past two years, this private equity boss who has always been "talkative" has become silent.

as a-shares experienced a "sudden" rise in the past few days, lin yuan could no longer sit still and took the initiative to communicate with investors on social platforms for nearly an hour.

during this exchange, he made many "astonishing" remarks.

there is no bubble in the stock market right now

lin yuan said: there is no so-called reason for the operation of the stock market. if it falls too much, it will rise, and if it rises too much, it will fall. when the stock market is in a situation where asset prices are very cheap, a three-day surge this week can happen at any time.

"we judge that this position is still very cheap. there is no bubble in the stock market now."

the center of the shanghai composite index should be 4200 points, and above 4200 points is "normal". the current level of 3,000 points indicates that there is no bubble in the market.

currently, around 3,000 points, there are very few investors who are making money at this position, and most of them are still losing money. for example, although the index heavyweight stocks represented by banks have risen much before, the circulating market value of bank stocks is not large. during the same period, most sectors continued to fall, so not many people participated in the rising sectors. therefore, the vast majority of people are still losing money.

lin yuan also said: the common sense in the market over the years tells him that people nowadays do not have overwhelming confidence, but simply "dare not". not many people really dare to open a trading account, and they all suffer heavy losses. even some institutional investors and market main players almost always have small positions, and very few have heavy positions.

therefore, people who talk about risks at this time are people who lack common sense.

mouth business

lin yuan has always declared that he is optimistic about the "mouth business" (that is, food, beverages and medicine). in this speech, he also talked about related industries.

lin yuan said that once there is overcapacity in the "mouth business" of consumer and medical representatives, it is easy to adjust the production process, because most food and drink have a shelf life.

if you buy too much liquor, it is impossible to store it. if you survey 100 people, how many bottles of liquor do you really have at home? does it still take up space?

therefore, the business related to the mouth is easy to "balance", and it is easy to correct (production) excess.

let’s look at medicine again. in the next 20 to 30 years, china's aging population will definitely increase. with aging, there will be huge space for the pharmaceutical industry, which is a rigid demand. in addition, household products for the elderly also have corresponding market demand.

gold everywhere

lin yuan also believes that there will be opportunities for dividend assets and growth assets in the future, and the key depends on personal investment orientation.

he believes that there are opportunities in the market that have not been seen in decades, and now is the time to bend down and pick up money. every investor thinks differently, but they all have opportunities. i personally am more optimistic about growth assets, such as the aging investment opportunities mentioned just now. this investment space is very large.

to make a fortune is to look for things that change your destiny, such as the opportunity of the internet from zero to one, and to seize the opportunities of industry change to make a fortune, that is, those things that go from nothing to become very big and replace others. so invest in growth assets.

he also said that he had never heard of anyone in the world who bought a shop and rented it out and ended up making a fortune.

there are the best companies in the stock market

there is currently no adjustment (in fund operations). at this stage, assets in the entire market are very cheap. we have to stay in this market and wait for the arrival of a vigorous bull market.

therefore, what needs to be considered is the resilience of assets. therefore, the investment portfolio (in the future) must consider the allocation of dividend stocks, growth stocks, and cash assets, and maintain high positions and wait in the market.

lin yuan said that his experience at home and abroad in the past few decades:

those who are timid and always say that they have made money cannot make a fortune. those who stay in the stock market eventually become bosses.

for example, if you just hold the dow jones index casually, it can defeat more than 90% of your businesses. what does this mean? chinese stock indexes already represent the best companies in the world.

firmly optimistic about china's economy

lin yuan also said that he is firmly optimistic about china's macro economy. chinese people save a lot of money. what (debt) risks do most people have?

china does not have much foreign debt. how much debt has the united states issued in u.s. dollars? local debt may seem quite large, but on average it is actually very small, and it is one's own debt. there is no shortage of goods now, so what does it matter if we print a little money?

china's economy is the best in the world. from a financial perspective, the risk in the united states is much greater. the government has too much debt, but china does not have much debt.

i am full of confidence that the rmb should be a strong currency because it is supported by real assets. it’s not that china’s assets are worthless now, but that its assets are undervalued.

the leverage we see is not actually leverage.

the real bull market has not yet begun

the current (continuous rise this week) is a small rebound after a decline, which is a correction of the market index. the real bull market has not yet begun. just like a serious patient who suddenly feels better today and has a better trend in the future.

after a real bull market comes, the characteristic is that most people will start to make money. at least 40 to 50% of people will start to make money. that is the performance of a bull market.

(shanghai composite index) rises to 4,500 points, which is the starting point of the bull market. in principle, i operate with a full position. i have to buy even if i don't want to. my actions tell me that i must buy.

in fact, today is the time to change your destiny. you don't have to seize it. but if you don't seize such a critical moment in life, then you will definitely not be able to do it. but there are very few people who seize this opportunity. just seize it once.

we must buy and not sell.

this decision is very difficult now, because the market is currently losing money. you ask him to buy but he doesn't dare to buy. what i am optimistic about is a long-term bull market.

only a few people will always get rich

why do we say that newborn calves are not afraid of death... human nature has no choice.

why? it will always be a minority who make money, and those who can really make money are determined by their way of thinking. so at this time, i think many fund managers should be replaced. 90% of fund managers may need to be replaced with a group of people with superior thinking. participate, their effect must be good...

when a person is born, his way of thinking may be determined at the age of three. everything he says and does is part of his genes at the age of three, and it is difficult for you to change it.

seizing the opportunity is your destiny, just seize this opportunity. so we say that investment requires passion. for example, if someone buys it today and it goes up a lot, if you buy it and he gets caught, he has to reflect on himself, because people have thinking and brains, and they will reflect on it. i'm too impulsive, aren't i?

some people will always treat investing as a job rather than a temporary interest.