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author | cat brother

source | big cat finance pro(id:caimao_shuangquan)

a round of bull market has confused many people, and it is rare for the exchange to crash directly. so while i was working on sunday but the market was not open, the exchange invited brokers to conduct a simulated transaction. after the last day of trading, it was said that it was 2 trillions, there is nothing to hesitate about.

nowadays, those who have made money regret having fewer positions, and those who have short positions are regretting it if they see a big drop. in the past two days, more people are opening accounts and studying what to buy. some people are also very worried, saying that a lot of companies have begun to reduce their holdings. well, this bull market is not going to last long.

in fact, there is no need to follow what others say.the key is whether you understand whether this bull market is real or fake.

false bull market rhythm: brokerages – technology – low price stocks – end;

the real bull market rhythm: credit loan-mortgage loan-fund allocation-check fund allocation-end.

but when the bull market comes, many people lose money because they don’t particularly understand the laws of the bull market.today i will briefly talk to you about the three stages of the bull market. if you want to make money, you must understand them.

the first stage of the bull market:

the index soared, and financial and securities firms soared.

what is being compared at this stage is not technology, but strength. only with great effort can miracles happen. if you buy less at the beginning, you will have to use more money to participate in higher-risk market conditions later on.

how to operate at this stage?

generally, if you want to make money quickly when the market is experiencing heavy volume reversal, there are two ways:

one is to buy brokerage stocks.because business is starting to get better, and you don’t know what people like,if you buy the platform directly at this time, it will not be easy to miss out.at least get an average score or above first, and then slowly adjust after you find out your financial preferences;

the second is to buy indices, such as csi 300, csi 1000, etc., those who want to increase leverage can buy csi 1000 stock index futures or options.at the beginning of the year, brother mao bought a few thousand pieces for fun at over 2,600 points, and it doubled in one day. unfortunately, he was timid and cashed out quickly, and later it increased more than ten times.you can also buy individual stocks, but it is recommended to diversify your allocation.otherwise, you will jump in a hurry without getting on the wheel.

the second stage of the bull market:

with the weight setting and the theme singing, the flexible technology sector will usher in an explosion, and consumer stocks will continue to rise. this is the focus of attention next.

the market may rise slowly when it reaches a certain position, but after a large amount of money enters the market, it will not go out in a short time.there will be many bull stocks appearing, at this time, stock selection is very flexible.

what is elasticity? just like a spring, it can bounce as high as it can and fall as deep as it can. resilience is not absolutely good or bad, but relatively good or bad.

during a market trend, everyone wants their stocks to rise faster, so everyone will give priority to investing in stocks with high elasticity, so stocks with high elasticity will rise faster. everyone has seen that big players like cnooc and industrial and commercial bank of china have not only risen slowly recently, but sometimes even fell.

so where does the elasticity of stocks mainly come from?we won’t talk about the fundamentals of the industry and the company.in a bull market, market capitalization is important.

when it comes to market value, everyone's first reaction is that small tickets have great flexibility. not entirely true actually.

the general direction is that the smaller the market value, the greater the flexibility, but it will be affected by the nature of market funds.for example, in this round of securities market conditions, dongfang wealth, which has risen the most, is not a small market capitalization, because when there is a heavy downpour, it is more important than who has the bigger pot. some small securities companies do not know how much business they will eventually receive, so there is a lot of money. wouldn't choose it.

according to brother mao’s past experience, the rise of stocks can be divided into three stages: from a market value of 3 to 4 billion to a market value of 10 billion, from a market value of 10 billion to a market value of 30 billion, and from a market value of 30 billion to a market value of 100 billion.

generally, a local bull market triggered by industrial trends will be dominated by speculation ranging from 10 billion to 30 billion.subsequently, it triggered a climax of speculation with a market value of 3 to 4 billion to 10 billion.

for example, the new energy wave in 2021 started with stocks worth more than 100 billion yuan, such as ningwang and byd, and then extended to the supply chain hype, such as german nano, and finally triggered the hype of small new technology companies. the process from hundreds of billions to tens of billions and then to billions. this transmission process is more obvious in the manufacturing industry, such as nvidia's hype.

all in all,after a market round, the biggest increase is usually a certain small ticket, but the order of speculation is from large to small.because at the beginning, everyone just rushed in and didn't care so much about stock selection.

in the second stage, special attention should be paid to technology stocks and consumer stocks.

why technology stocks?

because large-cap stocks have recovered to a certain extent, their valuations are no longer attractive to institutional capital. at this time, they have to look for new targets. so many retail investors are constantly transferring money into this market, and they will have to wait for many more years if they don’t harvest, soinstitutions will first try to boost technology stocks, because technology stocks have a characteristic: the more they rise, the more people buy them.

there are many stories about technology stocks. when they are not rising, they are looked down upon by people. after they are rising, many people will think that the company's products may have real prospects.

why should we pay attention to consumer stocks?

because everyone changes their consumption habits a little bit, the impact will be huge. after the bull market enters the second stage, the average consumer starts to have some money. at this time, the desire to shop increases a little bit, and the performance of consumer goods companies will increase a lot. .

some things can easily arouse people's emotions. when they are in a bad mood, they don't want to buy anything, and when they are in a good mood, they buy indiscriminately. for example, for electronic products, if you have no money, you may not replace your mobile phone for three to five years. but if you have money, you always want to buy something new.this slight change in consumers' emotions will produce great flexibility.something that used to sell a million units may suddenly sell five million units.

everyone can think based on their own life experience and just ask a question,if you have money and policies, what will you do?

not to mention electronic products, even the maternal and infant concept may have big bull stocks. there are fewer people giving birth to children now, and some maternal and infant stocks,for example, kids king and baby care room, the stock price has fallen by 70% from its high point. so if there is a policy such as paying 800 yuan a month, can it stimulate the population in small and medium-sized cities to have more children? once expectations are reversed, will the stock price rise?

another example is the consumer electronics industry chain, including mobile phones and folding screens.jingyan technology, dongmu co., ltd., etc., because there are many companies in the electronics industry chain,science and technology innovation 100 indexit can also be considered a relatively good target.

liquor, innovative drugs and traditional chinese medicine, etc., is also very worthy of attention.

another examplei love my home in the real estate industry chainwait。

the above is just to talk about the issue of elasticity, that is, youif you feel that the economy will reverse, the performance of these companies may change significantly. if you feel that the economy will not reverse, there is no need to consider it.

the third stage:

eliminate oversold prices, eliminate low-priced stocks, basically eliminate stocks below 5 yuan, and rush to buy stocks below 10 yuan.

basically, stocks with stories that rise to the end have been speculated to the sky.you can only look for stocks that have risen less, until all stocks have risen once.

a super bull market will generally go through three complete stages, but most of them cannot be completed. there are too many stocks now.the probability of reaching the end of the second stage is relatively high, but now, it has just begun.