news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

core summary:

1. on september 24, the 36th global financial center index (gfci 36) was released. hong kong overtook singapore after two years and returned to the top three. xia chun believes that hong kong is still the well-deserved first international financial center in asia. facing the "competition" with singapore, the best attitude is to learn from each other and draw on each other's strengths.

2. the increase in capital inflow is the key to hong kong’s return to third place this time. the 2.0 version of the cross-border wealth management link launched by the country at the beginning of the year received positive response from residents in the greater bay area, allowing funds to enter hong kong from the mainland. in addition to traditional european and american funds, capital from the middle east is also investing in hong kong and mainland markets in a low-key manner.

3. xia chun judged that this round of global surge in chinese assets will have a very positive and sustained mid- to long-term impact on the market. in addition to funds from the mainland, the middle east, and singapore entering hong kong, european and american capital that previously left hong kong will there will also be backflow, and this may just be the beginning.

dear netizens! welcome to hong kong, i’m chen jian. the past week has been a double blessing for hong kong. on the one hand, the global financial center index (gfci) jointly compiled by a british think tank and the china (shenzhen) comprehensive development institute announced that hong kong has once again surpassed singapore and ranked third, second only to new york and london. , ranking first in the asia-pacific region. on the other hand, the country launched a package of favorable policies and released about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity into the market, causing chinese assets to surge globally, and hong kong stocks are certainly no exception. this past friday, the single-day trading volume of hong kong stocks reached 445.7 billion hong kong dollars, which is unprecedented; the single-day trading volume of a-shares was nearly 1.5 trillion yuan, and the influx of a large number of investors also blocked exchange transactions for a time; in the u.s. stock market, china concept stocks generally rose sharply, with the nasdaq china golden dragon index soaring more than 10%, the largest single-day rise since 2022. what do you think of hong kong’s return to the top three? in which indicators does hong kong perform best? will the country's series of policies bring short-term stimulation or long-term benefits to hong kong's financial market and economic environment? on related topics, chen jian invited dr. xia chun, chief economist of shangshan capital and director of the research institute, to chat.

hong kong’s status as asia’s number one international financial center has not been shaken

ifeng.com hong kong account chen jian:hello dr. xia, how do you think hong kong achieved the third place in the rankings despite being overweight?

xia chun:in fact, in the past 10 years, hong kong ranked fourth in the world only in two years.going back 10 years, hong kong ranked third in the world.

why do we say that hong kong ranked fourth in 2022 and 2023, behind singapore? this is because hong kong has been hit hard by the epidemic and has adopted relatively strict epidemic prevention and control measures, while singapore relaxed the epidemic relatively early.

back today, we saw the new rankings coming out, and i was actually not surprised at all. because in 2021, oxford university conducted a survey. he interviewed many asian investors and asked them what they thought was the number one international financial center in asia.

▎in the 36th global financial center index (gfci 36) ranking, hong kong ranked third.

63.3% of the respondents believed that hong kong was ranked first and the first international financial center in asia; the second place was singapore, but only 26.7% believed that singapore was the international financial center in asia;of course, 6.7% of people believe that tokyo is asia’s international financial center.

from such a ranking, if we exclude the impact of the epidemic in 2022 and 23, we can see that in the minds of most investors,hong kong is the well-deserved financial center of asia. this ranking actually just reflects a general trend. after all, hong kong has only been ranked fourth in two years in the past 10 years.

of course, in addition to this consensus among everyone,the score gap between singapore and hong kong is actually not very big.。

the last time singapore ranked third and hong kong ranked fourth, one of them scored 723 points and the other scored 722 points.just 1 point missing。

▎singapore ranks fourth in the 36th global financial centers index (gfci 36), 2 points behind hong kong.

and this time hong kong ranks third, it does not mean that singapore is lagging behind. in fact, the scores of hong kong and singapore have improved and both have gained points. , except that hong kong added 8 points and singapore added 5 points. therefore, under such changes, hong kong ranks third, but in fact it is only a few points more than singapore.

i think what we are more concerned about is the ranking, but there is a lot of content in this ranking, and it has a total of five major categories. among the five major categories, there are operating environment, talent advantages, financial technology, infrastructure and government operating efficiency. regarding these five indicators, hong kong has done very well on some indicators, and singapore has done very well on some indicators. i think the best attitude is to learn from each other and learn from each other's strengths. 。

ifeng.com hong kong account chen jian:why did hong kong's score suddenly jump by 8 points this time? which of our indicators has improved the fastest?

xia chun:the most important reason is that in the past year,the data of capital inflows into hong kong increased by 3 or 4 times compared with the previous year. , funds flowing into hong kong reached hk$390 billion 。such a number can be said to put hong kong ahead of other regions in terms of score, even ahead of new york and london, which are at the top.

i hope that in the future, as the hong kong sar government introduces a series of policies to encourage financial development, including today we know that xinhua news agency has an article saying that "finance is the most important weapon of the country", the mainland and hong kong will jointly promote the healthy and sustainable development of finance.i believe that hong kong’s score will continue to improve and its ranking will be steadily ranked third in the world.。

hong kong’s capital inflow surpasses new york and london, with the greater bay area becoming the main force

ifeng.com hong kong account chen jian:dr. xia made it very clear, and i very much agree with your point of view. we should not always compare ourselves with singapore in rankings, but should learn from each other's strengths to offset our weaknesses. but no matter what, it is exciting that hong kong has returned to the third place in the global financial center. our status as the financial center of the asia-pacific region still exists.

you just mentioned that one of the indicators that has risen the most is the inflow of capital. in the past, we often observed the direction of capital in advance. for example, in the past few years, we saw signs of capital outflow from hong kong. so what is the ratio of capital outflows and inflows? you have just given a very clear data, so where does this data show that the main funds come from?

xia chun:personally, i think it is mainly funds from the mainland, especially the greater bay area. at the beginning of this year, there was an optimization of cross-border wealth management, which is version 2.0. for the 80 million residents of the greater bay area, a large part of them are high-net-worth individuals, so they responded very actively to version 2.0. cross-border financial management.

cross-border wealth management was actually launched a few years ago, and this time it has made five optimizations: the first optimization isrelaxed compliance standards. it used to be that you might have to pay social security for 5 years, but now you are only required to have 3 years to manage money and invest cross-border.

article 2,added an asset recognition. for example, it was originally required that your total net worth must be more than 5 million yuan, but now a new criterion has been added, that is, your annual income has reached 400,000 yuan for the past three consecutive years, which meets such a condition. then there is the sudden expansion of the investment threshold from the original 1 million yuan to 3 million yuan. this may be the most direct.

in addition to this, there are several other items. the original cross-border wealth management link was mainly for banks to conduct business or for funds and banks to provide services, providing wealth management products to the mainland. however,now include securities companiescome, securities companies can also undertake such new financial services. taken together, these points allow funds to enter hong kong from the mainland, which is part of the country's encouragement of development.

ifeng.com hong kong account chen jian:are there also funds from the middle east coming to hong kong?

xia chun:in fact, it is the same. because i have participated in some activities in the mainland in the past few years, and i have seen a lot of them at some university activities. i don’t know which country he is from, but judging from his appearance, he should be from the middle east.they are very interested in china's leading global technologies, such as new energy.therefore, if they want to invest funds in the mainland, they will choose hong kong as an intermediary.

▎in february 2024, chief executive of the hong kong special administrative region johnnie lee and the minister of investment of saudi arabia witnessed the exchange of cooperation memorandums or letters of intent between hong kong and saudi arabian companies or institutions in riyadh.

we may not have reported enough in the past, and people may have paid more attention to european and american funds.but the middle east has actually invested in the mainland for more than 30 years., they do things relatively low-key, so that everyone may not feel so strongly.

in addition to these reasons, we have also seen that some funds actually flow back from singapore to hong kong . the reason is simple,because the entire market in singapore is relatively small, the number of listed companies in singapore is only 1/5 of that in hong kong, and the market value of its entire market is only 1/7 of that in hong kong. . let me give you the simplest intuitive comparison. for example, in the past two or three days, we have seen hong kong stocks rise sharply. if you open the world's capital markets, you will find that almost all the world's capital markets are rising, but singapore is actually falling. , not much, just a little bit.

it is true that a lot of funds have arrived in singapore in the past two or three years, but now the country has introduced such a strong policy to support financial development.a well-known hedge fund said that he did not expect that china would bring out its biggest guns. it was actually an adjective. he would buy everything from such a big policy, so he saw that most of the global markets today are rising. of. but the market in singapore has fallen a little bit, which is also a normal reaction of the market.

next,we will see more funds coming to hong kong. in addition to funds from the mainland, in addition to funds from the middle east, in addition to some funds returning from singapore, i believe there are also funds from europe and the united states.. because of european and american funds, although the hong kong stock market has been falling for three consecutive years, one of the main reasons for these three years is that many foreign investment institutions have withdrawn from hong kong, but they are dumbfounded now, right?

hedge funds are the ones who move quickly. they have made arrangements in advance and have enjoyed this wave of dividends in advance. but they are very jealous of the large number of public funds, large amounts of sovereign funds, large amounts of endowment funds, and large amounts of pension funds. they may still be tough on words, but he should take some action. their actions may be a little slower. they need to hold meetings and make investment decisions internally, such as the asset allocation committee.

but i want to say,looking forward to the general trend, some funds will definitely flow back to hong kong.,soi believe that hong kong will still maintain a very high record in this category next year.。 you must know that hong kong ranks first in the world in this new ranking. it has surpassed new york and london in terms of capital inflows.

talent introduction and wealth management bring new opportunities to hong kong

ifeng.com hong kong account chen jian:what efforts do you think hong kong has made before it rises to third place in this ranking?

xia chun:i would like to specifically mention the hong kong sar government. in fact, they have done a series of right things. the first step is to introduce talents 。 after all, hong kong is a small place. although there are many good universities, the base of talented and highly talented students still needs to be imported from the mainland. this incident has brought a large number of high-quality talents, talents and talents to hong kong.

the second thing is actually to think clearly about what are hong kong’s advantages? hong kong's advantages actually lie in finance and the service industry. any economy cannot get better without finance. so,the so-called finance is the blood of the economy is a very correct statement.。

for a while, people didn’t talk much about finance. in hong kong, many people talked about science and technology and innovation. but even though this thing is right, it should be done.but before this thing is done, if you don’t develop finance and don’t take advantage of your traditional advantages, the decline may be faster.. so i think the hong kong sar government quickly realized this and began to focus on supporting financial development.

at this point,hong kong's asset management industry and wealth management industry can be said to have been developing steadily in the past two or three years. in fact, it is far better than everyone imagined.. the chairman of ubs has said that hong kong will surpass switzerland and become the world's wealth management center by 2027. in fact, it is no surprise that the everbright bay area has a population of 80 million, and there are a large number of high-net-worth individuals.

more specifically, the hong kong sar government is sincerely making efforts to attract high-net-worth individuals to hong kong through family offices to set up family offices, set up trusts, and set up their investment teams and insurance teams. i often attend various investment forums in hong kong. at these forums, i frequently meet many high-level officials, who are very patient in explaining these principles to you. these principles are familiar to us. we have lived in hong kong for more than 10 years, and we are familiar with them. however, there are still many people who have just arrived in hong kong. you are actually blind-eyed. which company are you going to talk to? which company specializes in which business? which company's quote is more reasonable? lower transaction fees? you don’t know. there is a great need to get such information. officials at all levels of the hong kong sar government are now very proactive in providing this information to the market.

for example, there are many high-net-worth individuals in the mainland who are very caring. if they want to make charitable donations after arriving in hong kong, who should they turn to? in fact, there are many large charities. cooperating with them may have the best effect. in addition, for example, if we want to buy art, who should we cooperate with and communicate with at this time? hong kong has also established a school of inheritance, and many professors from elite business universities have gathered together to do a good job in inheritance.

when i was in hong kong, i sometimes took my friends to tsim sha tsui, and they commented on why there were such long queues at banks. this can be said to be true speaks louder than words.

everyone, in the coming period,i think the most important thing is to hold on to your wealthin recent years, the economy has greatly reduced the wealth of many people. i believe everyone must learn how to inherit and grow this wealth in the future, from the first generation to the second generation, and to the third generation.

favorable policies will have a mid- to long-term positive impact on hong kong’s financial industry

ifeng.com hong kong account chen jian:yes, this is hong kong’s advantage. a series of favorable policies issued by the country have really promoted the market a lot. well, it can be said that chinese assets around the world have risen, including of course our hong kong stock market. some people say that this news has stimulated chinese assets to usher in super tuesday. this week’s skyrocketing trend continues. in the u.s. market, chinese concept stocks there was a general surge, with the nasdaq china golden dragon index soaring more than 10%, the largest single-day increase since 2022. what kind of benefits will such a series of major policies bring to hong kong's overall economy and investment environment? is it a short-term effect or a long-term effect?

xia chun:i believe it will be a very positive, lasting, mid- to long-term impact. we know that in the market, for example, the prices of stocks, futures, and options affect each other. well, in the past, when it came to the economy, everyone always felt that the stock market was determined by fundamentals. only if the macroeconomics were good could the capital market be good.

however, i want to tell you,just like the stocks, futures, and options mentioned just now, they actually affect each other. the fundamentals affect the price, but when the price is good, it will in turn affect the fundamentals., this is because when manufacturers and suppliers see the capital market rising, they will be more motivated to invest in this market, which in turn will affect the fundamentals we are talking about and the macroeconomics.

the policy is introduced on tuesday, and by friday, this week, both the hang seng index and the shanghai composite index may be a historically high weekly, but i would like to say that this may be just the beginning.

think about it, what kind of simple indicator is there for transitioning from a bear market to a bull market? that is, it takes a 20% rebound from the low point before the market enters a bull market. our early low was about 2,700. if it wants to return to a 20% increase, it will basically rise to 3,100 or 3,200, which it has not yet reached. in addition to the broader market, there are also many leading individual stocks. some of their gains may have risen to 50% in the past few days. even real estate stocks have experienced increases of more than 60% or 70%. what is driven by the economic fundamentals impact is an ongoing process.

so many people may have acted too late, and always feel that there is no fundamental support, but what i want to tell you is that the stock market's reaction has a process.the first step is alwayschanges in mood. the market sometimes falls for no reason. for example, there are a large number of stocks in the hong kong stock market that have broken through the net. their profits are actually good and their dividends are good, but they have broken through the net and have been falling.the reason for the decline is because the mood is too pessimistic. the first step now is to improve the mood and bring it back to positivity and optimism.。

the second step is valuation fixes. there are many stocks that everyone found out why they were too low before? so now when funds come in, they go in with these low-valued stocks.

only in the third step do we have the fundamentals , fundamentals are a medium- to long-term process. it does not mean that today or next week or next month, we will see industrial profits increase, consumption increase, and housing prices increase. in fact, it is not that fast.

we have seen the introduction of some favorable policies before. we have this meeting, this policy, and that policy. but what is the biggest difference between this time and before? you introduced an environmental protection policy before, but the unsatisfactory actions in the market have not stopped and are still continuing, so one piece of good news is not worth nine pieces of bad news. now, i have released two or three pieces of good news, but at the same time i have completely stopped eight or nine bad actions.

to give the simplest example, some time ago in the financial industry, one of them cut salaries, and the other was to recover the original bonuses. as a result, within a few months, many financial companies have just laid back, stopped taking action, and did not do research. no more road shows, and customers are no longer interested. but now this matter has stopped, we will not do the bad things, and at the same time we will do the good things, so this time we will see a rapid response from the market.i immediately saw that the bad ones are gone, and the good ones are still coming out. there may be two moves now, but we still have reasons to look forward to the third and fourth moves, especially during the national day holiday. i believe they will be introduced this time the timing was chosen very well.on the one hand, the united states cut interest rates, and the rate cut exceeded market expectations. on the other hand, a bunch of tools have actually been prepared in the early stage, but these tools need to be launched at a time point, which happens to be between the u.s. interest rate cut in september and the national day in october, to launch them into the market in a centralized manner and in a coordinated manner. , not fighting.

so,this time, such a favorable policy is launched before the national day, which will be fully reflected in the national day holiday data.. i have said that the big foreign institutions move slower. they may take advantage of the national day holiday to buy in overseas markets. they can buy chinese concept stocks, buy in singapore, and buy in the uk.in this case, while traveling during the national day, everyone will turn on their mobile phones and see foreign investors buying chinese stocks in other markets.。

it is conceivable that the bull market will continue for some time.

our internal research and judgment actually believes that this time we should be conservative. i would like to emphasize that it is only the internal analysis result of our own research and does not constitute investment advice. based on historical valuations, average performance, and some changes in earnings, we believe that this wave of market trends can be viewed rationally, at least until june next year; in terms of the broader market, we believe that there is no suspense that the shanghai composite should return to 3,400 points. ; we believe that there is not much suspense for the hang seng index to return to 27,000 points.

as sentiment recovers, then valuations recover, and fundamentals improve, forming a benign, and of course capital inflow, series of factors.

generally speaking,the policy introduced by the country this time is very targeted., everyone discussed all the weak links in our economy in the early stage, and they were all discussed one by one at the recent politburo working meeting., for example, fiscal policy must be vigorous and particularly active next, and then monetary policy must accurately prescribe the right medicine.

there are also issues such as real estate, unemployment, and fertility that we are worried about. i believe that a series of targeted policies will be introduced after the national day. these policies have been discussed for a long time before. in fact, i think there is more or less a consensus among economists.

first of all, we need to adjust across cycles, and then during the process of inter-cycle and market recovery, some long-term, structural problems and major structural reforms will slowly come out during this process, so everyone must be a little more positive.

ifeng.com hong kong account chen jian:it was exciting to hear dr. xia’s analysis. but after all, mainland investors have been hovering at 3,000 points for so many years, and even dropped to more than 2,000 points, and stayed there for such a long time. of course i am excited to see the benefits, but is it necessary to prepare for a rainy day? usually in the investment market, we see that smart money often takes advantage of some good news to sell goods. is such concern necessary? or do you think that hedge funds and investors at home and abroad have really seen the chinese government’s package of policies and determination this time and regained their confidence in the market? how should retail investors respond?

xia chun:there is an investment method, which is what we call the most traditional value investment.for value investors, this ishe actually doesn't care that much about policy changesthe most obvious example is that buffett believes that even if greenspan tells him a secret message in his ear, he will not incorporate it into his investment decisions and it will not affect any of his decisions.

for these people, what did they observe?china's market is seriously undervalued, and a large number of good companies have been accidentally killed by market sentiment in the process., their valuations are very low, but they have very good profits and their profits are growing. at the same time, they pay dividends to shareholders or buy back their own shares. for a company, if it can repurchase its own shares and pay dividends to shareholders, it means it has real money. once its valuation is too low, for this kind of value investor, no matter when policies are issued, i can actually enter the market and buy it.

another method is to use artificial intelligence to select stocks, but there are no policy variables in the artificial intelligence model, which is a bit worse.

so what method does it use to select stocks? it excludes all sunset industries, overleveraged industries, unprofitable industries, and industries with questionable financial statements. in this way, whether it is the mainland or hong kong market, you may actually be able to exclude 70% or 80% of the stocks, leaving the remaining of course, there are some stocks that perform well among the stocks listed below. just like the investment style i just mentioned, it actually captures these stocks that perform well. however, another style is to exclude these stocks and select those that have not risen before. we buy good stocks at low prices, and then they slowly rise.

so, i want to tell you here,in fact, before everyone faces this market situation, they should think about which type they belong to? what exactly did you do well? what was done poorly? is that too pessimistic? do you never read financial statements? or are you buying a sunset industry that others don’t touch?industries that have all kinds of problems?if its stock price drops to a very low level and you think it is very low, even if you buy it, in fact you will not be able to rebound.if you think about this issue clearly, it will change your future investment habits and your investment returns.

ifeng.com hong kong account chen jian:ok, thank you dr. xia for providing us with a comprehensive analysis, which is both rational and well-founded, and also provides an interpretation of the policy. you believe that hong kong's advantages as an international financial center in the asia-pacific region still exist, and you also see the benefits of a series of national policies on the investment market, and believe that the relationship between financial markets and the real economy is interactive. i also wish netizens to first keep the wealth they have created, and then realize value-added and inheritance. thank you.