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in the trading week that has just passed (9.23~9.27), i believe there is no need to repeat too much about how fierce the rebound of a-shares was and how strong the feeling of "bullish return" was. here is a set of data:

index performance

wonder quan a weekly closed the super long positive line,"gold nine silver ten"the golden nine has been cashed↓

industry performance(shenwan first-level industry, source: wind)

individual stock performance

this week5292 homesended up, 48 stocks ended down, and 8 stocks ended flat;

as of friday, only 1,054 stocks ended the year with gains, while 4,299 stocks still ended with losses.

and this week’s top 10 gainers↓

market turnover: reaching the trillion mark for 3 consecutive days

as the market continues to rise,the discussion of a-shares over the weekend has "broken the circle", more and more investors believe that this wave is a real bull market.

this is not something the author just said. wechat index shows,"a shares"the popularity of the word this week has obviously gone up several levels compared to before;"bull market"this week’s attention has a smoother growth curve.

the more intuitive phenomenon is that based on the lesson of friday’s “server being bought out”, when you read this push (september 29), the shanghai stock exchange may be conducting platform-related business tests such as bidding and comprehensive industry.

according to reports, the test invites all market participants to participate, mainly to verify the accuracy of relevant technology platform business and technical adjustments. according to the notice, the test content is to test and simulate the trading and clearing of one trading day. the test mainly verifies that the bidding platform business process runs smoothly when a large number of orders are declared in a continuous bidding period. the bidding platform business verification test scenario is a scenario verification of centralized declaration of a large number of orders during the continuous bidding period.

that is to say,the exchange is making technical preparations to cope with the continued "explosion" of the market in the future.

based on the previous discussions, this roundthe rebound is expected to be upgraded to a "reversal",that is to say, go outrealthe underlying logic of the bull market,it goes like this:

first, the central government put forward clear requirements for the capital market at the critical time point of the end of the third quarter, which fully reflects the high importance and eagerness for the capital market and is of great significance to stabilizing capital market expectations and maintaining overall economic and social stability.

second, "cutting reserve requirements, cutting interest rates, cutting existing mortgage interest rates, and creating new monetary instruments to support the development of the stock market" are being implemented intensively, and the policy mix is ​​in full swing.release liquidityvery sincere and powerful.

for example, some investors made an analogy: "the central bank's new tool is equivalent to parents issuing unlimited bank cards to their sons, so they can spend whatever they want."

third, before the announcement of the policy, market sentiment was at a historical bottom, a-shares were generally undervalued, some stocks were oversold, and there was a strong need for repairs - commonly known as"cheap enough”。

so, how long can this market rise and how high can it rise?

shen wanhongyuanstrategy teamhe said that short-term monetary, fiscal, and capital market policies have continuously catalyzed, policy expectations have been fully reversed, economic optimism has also begun to ferment, and market indexes have risen rapidly. when the market reaches a stage where optimistic economic expectations are fermented, if expectations run too fast and reality has not caught up, the market will inevitably become dull. at that time, the market's rising rhythm may switch to a stage of strong fluctuations and sector theme rotation, "no matter what, we believe that the money-making effect of the post-holiday market may still be strong”。

the team also said,this time it’s the “policy bottom”, because after the policy adjustment,2025h2 has “bottom performance”visibility is significantly improved. the source of "low performance" is that demand has improved weakly and supply pressure has dropped across the board. the "market bottom" may have already appeared. of course, the results of the us election may affect the mid-term market: if the world conducts a harris transaction, a shares will break through upward in november, and the export chain will lead the rise. if there is a trump trade globally, 2025q2 could be the starting point for a mid-term uptrend.

zheshang securitiespointed out that this week the market experienced an "epic-level rebound" under the protection of policies. looking ahead to the market outlook, the midline offensive that was originally expected to appear at the end of the year and the beginning of the year has arrived ahead of schedule. it believes that based on the trends of the past two years, this round of midline offensive is "at least" equivalent to the two rounds of midline rebounds from april to july 2022 and october 2022 to february 2023.

there are two possible rebound paths:

first, according to the "advance two, retreat one", it will start to rise and consolidate in the next few trading days, and then continue to rebound after "reversing to pick up others";

second, judging from the historical comparison of the index and the rotation characteristics of the sectors, it is also possible to break out of a "wave of flow" offensive similar to that from december 2012 to february 2013.

regardless of the trend, the current position is not the high point of this round’s midline market.. in terms of allocation, we should still focus on adding positions on dips. if we encounter the opportunity of "advance two, retreat one", it is recommended to increase allocations on dips. in terms of industry allocation, two principles are followed. first, "finance + consumption", focusing on non-bank, real estate liquor, internet and other directions; second, there is a high probability of sector expansion opportunities in the mid-line market, so we can focus on the "blue chip platform" after "singing opera on a small side" focuses on new energy, medicine, media, computers and other directions.

huajin securitiesthe research report proposed three stages of a-share rebound after the historical bottom:look at policies at the beginning, fundamentals at the mid-term, and fundamentals and external events at the end.. it believes:

1) the current rise is still in its early stages and is likely to continue in the short term.

2) the rise is likely to continue until after the holiday, so hold shares to celebrate the holiday.

3) short-term valuation repair logic prevails, and it is recommended to focus on financial real estate, technology growth and core assets.

finally, let me discuss a topic with you:

what kind of mentality should you have when trading stocks in a bull market?

as some articles have summarized, the first stage of a bull market is usually when the market is most pessimistic. at this time, investors were completely disillusioned with the market, the market was bearish, and asset values ​​were seriously undervalued.

but despite the market downturn, prices lack the motivation to move downward; a few investors believe that the situation will change soon and begin to gradually build positions, while most traders are still full of doubts.

in the second stage of the bull market, although market conditions have improved significantly, investors are still worried about the previous decline and emphasize that "the market is risky." only as the rise continues will the negative pessimism gradually ease.

just like this wednesday (september 25), the day after the market rose sharply, the desire to cash out was once very strong.

in the third stage, the market finally fully believes that "this is a bull market" and is full of optimism. every decline and adjustment in the market has become a "reversal to pick up people", attracting more investors to follow suit. market investment sentiment is high.

but it was at this stage that as the speculative atmosphere reached its extreme, assets were seriously overvalued. after a certain critical point, the bull market came to an end.

looking beyond a bull market, the market actually always follows the law of cycles. if there is a downward cycle, there will definitely be an upward cycle.

stock trading requires a clear understanding of the cycle, and taking control when risks arise to avoid unnecessary losses; decision-making also requires counter-cyclicality, daring to take heavy positions when the market is undervalued, and then patiently waiting for the market to rise.

if you areit is expected to experience a bull market for the first time (once-in-a-decade level)are the new investors ready at this moment?