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another major event has occurred in the palestinian-israeli conflict that has lasted for nearly a year: after israel carried out many days of indiscriminate bombing of hezbollah-controlled areas in southern lebanon, israel announced on the 28th that lebanese hezbollah leader nasrul rah was killed in an israeli air strike on the 27th; shortly after, hezbollah also issued a statement confirming this.

this is the most significant loss suffered by lebanese hezbollah in this war.

(historical photo of lebanese hezbollah leader nasrallah)

according to the israeli army radio, the israeli intelligence agency obtained the location of the lebanese hezbollah office where nasrallah was located in advance, and the israeli air force dispatched a large number of f-15 fighter jets on the 27th (there are also reports that this operation included f-35 fighter jets) , a total of about 85 ground-penetrating bombs, each weighing one ton, were dropped on the office building.

the israeli air force also released a video showing the scene when the f-15 fighter jets participating in the bombing operation on the 27th took off with the us-made "joint direct attack munition" (jdam).

(screenshot of a video of an israeli air force f-15 fighter jet taking off with jdam mounted on it)

therefore, the ammunition used by the israeli air force in this operation is likely to be the mk84 low-drag bomb modified with the gbu-31 jdam modification kit. the mk84 has a dead weight of 2,000 pounds, approximately 910 kilograms. after the modification of the guidance kit, it is indeed close to 1 ton weight.

as early as the end of june this year, the u.s. media reported that since the outbreak of the current round of palestinian-israeli conflict on october 7 last year, the united states has delivered at least 14,000 2,000-pound mk84 bombs, 6,500 500-pound bombs, and 1,000 anti-tank bombs to israel. bunker-penetrating bombs, 2,600 sdb small diameter bombs and approximately 3,000 hellfire anti-tank missiles.

just in august this year, the us government transported another 6,500 jdams to israel. it can be said that israel has been able to continuously deal fatal blows to hamas and other armed forces in this round of war, basically because of the help of the united states.

(jdam modification kit)

the jdam modification kit is a cheap modification kit developed and equipped by the u.s. air force in the 1980s to convert unguided low-drag bombs into precision-guided bombs. it is roughly a tail fin that can be controlled by gps and inertial guidance modules. it is installed on the tail of a conventional unguided low-drag bomb.

jdam can glide and fly up to 28 kilometers, and requires a carrier aircraft to approach the target to be dropped. therefore, if you want to attack a country or region with complete air defense forces, the risk of using jdam is too great, but using it to deal with almost no decent air defense forces lebanese and palestinian armed groups have no difficulty.

jdam has a strong ability to penetrate civil buildings. often a 10-story building can penetrate from the top to the basement before exploding.

in addition to nasrallah, senior hezbollah commander ali karki and others were also killed in israeli air strikes. it is said that the air strike on the 27th killed a total of 11 people, probably all of whom were high-level hezbollah officials or people around them.

according to information released by the israeli media, after the murder of leader nasrallah, all 18 of the previous main senior leaders of hezbollah in lebanon have been killed or assassinated by the israeli army.

this matter has not been confirmed by hezbollah, but sources from iran said that abbas nirfushan, deputy commander of the "quds force" of iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps and commander of the lebanese branch of the "quds force", was also there nasrallah was killed along with him in the air strike.

this fact shows that this intelligence leak may be another problem with iran. because almost all of the major blows suffered by hamas and hezbollah in recent years are related to iran.

for example, the bp aircraft involved in the recent explosion of bp aircraft in lebanon was purchased by hezbollah through the iranian revolutionary guards; for example, on july 31 this year, hamas politburo leader ismail haniyeh and a group of a bodyguard was attacked and killed in a hotel in tehran, the capital of iran.

this shows how far and how deeply iranian society has been penetrated by israeli and western intelligence agencies.

(israel continues to carry out air strikes on lebanon)

this may be one of the reasons why iran's new president, masoud pezeshchiyan, "showed softness" to israel and the west during his recent participation in the united nations general assembly in new york, usa. he said that iran has no intention of going to war with israel, but israel is trying to drag iran into the conflict, and that iran is willing to negotiate on resuming implementation of the comprehensive agreement on the iranian nuclear issue.

but even if iran wants to be soft, can it still be soft after nasrallah was killed?

we must know that lebanese hezbollah is the most combative armed organization in the "shia arc" supported by iran. if iran does not respond to this attack, can the "shia arc" continue to exist? can those armed groups still listen to iran? can iran afford such consequences?

after this attack, there is a high probability that hezbollah will not give in. hezbollah is much more powerful than hamas. the area of ​​the gaza strip is only about 300 square kilometers. the total number of hamas soldiers before the war was more than 10,000, while lebanon has about 10,000 square kilometers. hezbollah itself claims to have 100,000 soldiers, and outsiders speculate that it can fight. there may be 50,000 soldiers.

hamas has been fighting for nearly a year and has not surrendered. there are still thousands of people fighting in the gaza strip. will hezbollah, whose main force has not been damaged, surrender?

(possible replacement for nasrallah, hashem safieddin)

after nasrallah's death, the person most likely to take over his authority may be his cousin hashem safieddine. safiedine is currently the chairman of hezbollah’s executive committee, responsible for overseeing hezbollah’s political affairs. at the same time, safieddin is also responsible for commanding part of the military operations, and his appearance is similar to nasrallah.

it can be expected that young officials within hezbollah will replace those senior officials eliminated by israel, and they will continue to fight. this war will not end easily.