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text | haike

votes for japan's liberal democratic party election opened yesterday (september 27).

in the second round of voting, former liberal democratic party secretary-general shigeru ishiba received the majority of votes and was elected as the new president of the liberal democratic party.according to reports, the term of the new president of the liberal democratic party will be three years and will end in september 2027.

it should also be noted that on september 30, when the term of fumio kishida, president of the liberal democratic party of japan, expires, shigeru ishiba will be nominated by the japanese parliament to take over as prime minister on october 1.

on the afternoon of september 27, shigeru ishiba was elected as the new president of japan’s liberal democratic party

looking at the entire japanese political structure, the possibility of dissolving the house of representatives of the japanese diet and holding an election as soon as possible is being discussed. how ishiba will make a judgment has attracted the attention of both the government and the opposition in japan.

although after fumio kishida announced that he would give up his candidacy for the president of the liberal democratic party, the liberal democratic party saw a scene of "kowloon seizing the direct descendants", that is, from the "female abe" sanae takaichi to shinjiro koizumi, the son of former prime minister junichiro koizumi, etc., men and women from all walks of life " there are nine people participating in the election, but some people have long thought thatshigeru ishibathe probability of being elected is higher.

in the end, in the second round of the election, shigeru ishiba received 215 votes, while sanae takaichi received 194 votes——

it undoubtedly confirms the previous analysis.

analysts familiar with japanese politics told uncle hai that shigeru ishiba's victory reflected the expectations of the liberal democratic party and even the broader japanese political circles.

compared with the more radical sanae takaichi and shinjiro koizumi, who is still too young in the eyes of his father junichiro koizumi, shigeru ishiba appears to be moderate and steady. "he is reminiscent of a person, yasuhiro nakasone, who served three consecutive terms as prime minister of japan in the 1980s." analysts interpreted it this way, "he understands current affairs and can make turns. he is a 'veteran'."

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this sentence reminds me of a joke, japanese people learn to speak chinese, "you have an old saying in china, he who understands current affairs is a hero." however, given the various international and domestic situations that japan is currently facing, especially in the face of the chaotic world situation, how does japan find the correct domestic and diplomatic strategies? it seems that if a "person who understands current affairs" is at the helm, it will always be difficult. it's better than rushing in and beating people!

looking at japan’s internal affairs alone, the reason why fumio kishida announced that he would no longer run for president of the liberal democratic party was due to two major reasons——

first, it faces japan's economic malaise and difficulties.the promises made back then about boosting the economy and increasing japan's national income will no longer be fulfilled in the short term.

secondly, what troubles him even more is the political black money scandal.in november 2023, the media revealed that several factions within the liberal democratic party had issued sales quotas for their members of congress, requiring them to sell political fundraising party tickets. if sales quotas are exceeded, the excess funds are returned to lawmakers in the form of "kickbacks." however, this part of the funds is not registered in the faction income and expenditure reports and the parliamentarians’ political funds income and expenditure reports, thus becoming unregulated secret funds. the special investigation department of the tokyo district prosecutor's office subsequently intervened in the investigation.

it doesn’t matter if we don’t investigate. under this investigation, the “abe faction” in the liberal democratic party had 600 million yen in confidential funds, and the “second order faction” had more than 200 million yen in confidential funds. even the “kishida faction” was exposed from 2018 to about 30 million yen of income in 2020 was not registered in the political fund income and expenditure report.

kishida fumio's inability to work this time is related to all aspects involved in these funds. there are some aspects that he cannot really directly attack or offend.

fumio kishida: information

shigeru ishiba, who gives people a peaceful impression and seems to be very safe in his affairs, appears murderous in his statements about the political black money of the liberal democratic party. he made it clear many times during the campaign that he wanted the liberal democratic party to regain the trust it had lost due to "politics and money" in the minds of the people.

obviously, he has a good grasp of this election. besides, since it can be seen to the naked eye that many factions within the liberal democratic party have dispersed. he, shigeru ishiba, is not fumio kishida, and he does not have to take responsibility for the unclear and unhappy things of the "abe faction", "second order faction" and "kishida faction", so he speaks harshly beforehand. as for how to reform the liberal democratic party and what new methods the new president will have, the outside world may as well wait and see.

what is worth talking about is his attitude towards the yasukuni shrine.

he did not explicitly declare that he would not visit the yasukuni shrine after becoming the president of the liberal democratic party and the prime minister of japan, but he said: "if the emperor is unable to visit the yasukuni shrine, i will not visit the yasukuni shrine."

for the peace-loving japanese people who reflect on the guilt of war, ishiba's words are equivalent to making it clear that they will not visit the yasukuni shrine. everyone gets what they want.

for those who are right-wing and militaristic, they are speechless after listening to ishiba shigeru's words.the reason is simple. ishiba shigeru said that he followed the emperor's instructions, which was equivalent to blocking their mouths.

uncle hai wants to say that on october 17, 1978, matsudaira nagayoshi, who had just assumed the post of palace minister, secretly piled the tablets of 14 class-a war criminals into the yasukuni shrine. this performance of worshiping ghosts caused an uproar after the media discovered it.

the peak of this uproar was, of course, august 15, 1985, when then japanese prime minister yasuhiro nakasone and a group of cabinet ministers visited the yasukuni shrine. this is japan's first serving prime minister to pay homage to the yasukuni shrine in his official capacity in the 40 years since the war. afterwards, taking china as an example, the people were furious. the spokesperson of the ministry of foreign affairs also pointed out at the press conference at that time that prime minister yasuhiro nakasone's behavior seriously hurt the feelings of the chinese people.

shinzo abe attended nakasone yasuhiro's 96th birthday party, and now both of them are memorializing him: oriental ic

the japanese government statement after the cabinet meeting on november 5, 1985 stated that prime minister nakasone's visit to the yasukuni shrine had no intention of restoring the reputation of criminals.

but this statement obviously cannot satisfy countries, including china, that have been harmed by japan.

afterwards, japanese emperor hirohito declared in 1988 that he expressed strong dissatisfaction with the situation where class-a war criminals were piled into the yasukuni shrine. according to public reports, it can be seen that after the class-a war criminals tablet entered the yasukuni shrine in 1978, hirohito never visited the yasukuni shrine again.

not only did hirohito, who had experienced world war ii, no longer go, but neither akihito nor naruhito ever went in.

looking back at nakasone yasuhiro, seeing the emperor's attitude, he also changed his attitude drastically, saying bluntly: "the war launched by japan in the past was a war of aggression and a wrong war."

after shinzo abe went to the yasukuni shrine and made extraordinary moves, yasuhiro nakasone also called on abe to face history squarely and not make the same mistake again.

it can be seen that nakasone yasuhiro knew his mistakes and could correct them.

of course, shigeru ishiba is currently considered to be similar to yasuhiro nakasone, but it also depends on whether he can really stick to the bottom line of not visiting the yasukuni shrine after taking office as prime minister of japan. we might as well wait and see about this!

shigeru ishiba (middle) at the liberal democratic party presidential election line discussion

where will sino-japanese relations go after shigeru ishiba becomes prime minister of japan? of course, we must not only observe whether he visits the yasukuni shrine!

you must know that the place where he announced his candidacy for the president of the liberal democratic party of japan was in taiwan province!

on august 14, when fumio kishida announced that he would not participate in the liberal democratic party presidential election in september, shigeru ishiba couldn't wait to hold a press conference in taipei and announced that he would challenge the position of president of the liberal democratic party.

at that time, he was leading many japanese members of congress to taiwan province. he said he couldn't wait because he hadn't collected enough nominations for 20 people at that time, but he had already said that as long as 20 people nominated him and were qualified to run, he would run.

in taiwan province, he claimed to have exchanged opinions with lai ching-te of the democratic progressive party and others about the trends in mainland china and "japan-taiwan" relations.

it can be seen from this that it is worth waiting to see how ishiba shigeru will treat sino-japanese relations after he obtains the position of president of the liberal democratic party and prime minister of japan.