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openai investment memo exposed! loss will exceed us$5 billion in 2024, chatgpt will rise to us$44 within five years, with revenue reaching us$100 billion

2024-09-28

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with the resignation of openai cto mira murati and related executives on wednesday, new cfo sarah friar sent a memo to investors on thursday stating that openai expects to complete this round of financing in the first week of october. the valuation could reach $150 billion.

the current new round of investors, in addition to the leading investor thrive capital, openai is also negotiating with microsoft, apple, nvidia, tiger global and the uae-controlled technology investment company mgx, and openai is offering unusual deals to investors structure.

it is reported that thrive capital has invested us$750 million in openai’s latest round of financing. in addition to investing its own funds, openai also plans to use a financial instrument called a special purpose vehicle to raise an additional us$450 million from other investors. no other investors were offered the same terms.

thrive capital, as the main investor in this round, also enjoys an unusual benefit: by 2025, it can choose to invest up to another $1 billion in openai without changing its valuation.

in addition, it was also reported this week that openai will be restructured into a for-profit company within two years, otherwise the investment will be returned, of which sam altman will receive an equity stake worth us$10.5 billion, accounting for 7%.

according to financial documents, openai’s revenue in august reached us$300 million, a 700% increase since the beginning of 2023. revenue is expected to be us$3.7 billion this year, and revenue will increase to us$11.6 billion next year.

openai's revenue in august more than tripled from the same period last year. as of june, approximately 350 million people used its services each month (up from around 100 million in march), most of which came from chatgpt.

chatgpt is expected to generate $2.7 billion in revenue this year, up from $700 million in 2023, with $1 billion of that coming from other businesses using its technology. about 10 million chatgpt users pay the company $20 a month.

openai expects to lose about $5 billion this year after paying for costs related to operating services and other expenses such as employee salaries and office rent, not including equity payments to employees, according to an analysis by a financial professional who has reviewed the documents. compensation, as well as several large expenditures that were not fully explained in the document, which are also consistent with our previous forecasts.

additionally, the filing details for the first time openai's financial performance and how it presented itself to investors, but they don't clearly explain how much money it lost.

according to openai’s financing materials, openai needs to continue to raise funds next year because its expenses grow with the number of people using its products. this is why openai was previously predicted to ipo as soon as next year!

currently, openai's largest cost is the computing power obtained through cooperation with microsoft. although microsoft has invested more than 13 billion us dollars in openai, most of these funds are spent on microsoft's cloud computing system, which hosts openai's product.

to further increase revenue, openai expects to increase the price of chatgpt by $2 by the end of this year and significantly increase it to $44 within the next 5 years. more than 1 million third-party developers use openai's technology to power their own services.

finally, openai predicts its revenue will reach $100 billion by 2029!

vc investment in ai startups this year has reached us$64.1 billion, close to the peak in 2021, but the total global ai annual revenue is only tens of billions of us dollars