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on september 27, a-share market sentiment continued to rise, with the shanghai composite index and gem continuing to rise. the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan, exceeding 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days.

xu changtai, chief strategist of j.p. morgan asset management's asia-pacific region, told reporters from brokerage china that major meetings and other events have released strong signals to support economic growth and asset prices, paving the way for further policy support and raising the prospect of an upward economic cycle in 2025. possibility. against the background of overvalued global market prices and the potential push by the federal reserve to cut interest rates, chinese assets are expected to become the first choice for global capital allocation.

goldman sachs’ latest research on the 27th believes that policy easing is unprecedented. taking into account the continued downturn in real estate, continued ppi deflation, and the time required for policy transmission, there is limited room for upward growth in gdp growth throughout the year. however, the gdp growth rate in the fourth quarter is confident that it will improve compared with the third quarter. .

policies work together to release strong signals

before the national day, major meetings such as the politburo meeting and the standing committee of the state council introduced a series of policies. affected by this, the a-share and hong kong stock market sentiment was high, and the shanghai composite index rose by about 10% in four days.

xu changtai, chief strategist of jpmorgan asset management asia pacific, believes that the major meeting released a strong signal to support economic growth and asset prices, which is widely regarded as a greater emphasis on the synergy of monetary and economic policies to support china's economic recovery.

"at this stage, these policy measures have played a certain role in boosting investor confidence and promoting market growth." xu changtai told reporters from brokerage china that before this round of rebound, a-share valuations were at a relatively low level in the past decade, reflecting investors are cautious about the chinese economy. when the policy tone shifts to a direction that is conducive to the market, market valuations may return to a reasonable level consistent with corporate fundamentals.

on september 27, the latest research report released by goldman sachs believes that the politburo meeting promised to strengthen countercyclical adjustments of fiscal and monetary policies to promote the real estate market to "stop falling and stabilize", boost the capital market, help enterprises tide over difficulties, and promote consumption and employment. given the special timing of the politburo meeting to focus on policy, the clear and louder easing signal, and the central bank's high-profile easing measures at the beginning of this week, goldman sachs believes that policy support measures have been triggered.

chinese assets are expected to become the first choice for global capital allocation

affected by the strong signals released by the combined efforts of policies, investor confidence in the capital market has greatly increased, and market valuations are expected to return to a reasonable level that matches fundamentals.

xu changtai, chief strategist of jpmorgan asset management asia pacific, said that after the initial recovery of market valuations, the sustainability of the market rebound depends on the pace of recovery of the economy and corporate earnings per share. fiscal stimulus is crucial for the economy to emerge from a deflationary cycle. in addition to supporting local government finances, measures such as tax cuts and increased social welfare expenditures are more important for increasing residents' disposable income and consumption power.

goldman sachs predicts that my country's fiscal policy will be further relaxed, such as adding new government bond issuance quotas in addition to the annual budget to support fiscal expenditures. there may be a special ultra-long-term central government bond quota of 1 trillion to 2 trillion yuan.

goldman sachs further stated that the policy easing is unprecedented. taking into account the continued downturn in real estate, continued ppi deflation and the time required for policy transmission, there is limited room for upward growth in gdp growth throughout the year. however, the gdp growth rate in the fourth quarter is confident that it will improve compared with the third quarter.

“we believe these synergistic policy announcements will pave the way for further policy support and increase the likelihood of an upward economic cycle in 2025. combined with improvements in private enterprise margins and corporate fundamentals, we do see value in china’s equity markets opportunities, as well as diversified investment opportunities in the context of overvalued global market prices,” xu changtai said.

xu changtai believes: "compared with the a-share market, hong kong stocks have reacted more positively. driven by the potential of the federal reserve's interest rate cuts, chinese assets are expected to become the first choice for global capital allocation."