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"can the market open during the national day? don't delay the market!"

the a-share stock market has surged this week, breaking out of a long-lost pre-holiday trend. the excited investors showed off their red-hot profits for the day and joked, "this is the first time i don't like the national day holiday. i hope big a's good start will keep coming and not stop."

china’s stock market is making a rapid comeback. on september 26, the shanghai composite index closed up 3.61%, returning to 3,000 points, and brought about a good situation with trillions of transactions and 5,000 stocks rising. in the past week, the shanghai composite index has successively recovered the 2700, 2800, 2900 and 3000 points.

on september 27, the investment enthusiasm for a-shares continued, and the exchange's burst of orders even caused trading congestion. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 2.89% to close at 3087.53 points. the gem even made history, with an intraday surge of 11.87%, the largest intraday increase in history.

the three-month decline has been recovered in three days. is the bull market really coming back this time?

are you rushing to buy? are a-shares so popular that the software is stuck?

"it's so crazy. i just recovered 2,900 points the day before. i didn't expect that it would rise by nearly 100 points on the 26th. it's rare to see such a surge in a-shares since the stock market began." investor li ming lamented that the return of 3,000 points was so fast that it was surprising. be surprised.

the more real joy is reflected in the "recovery of blood" in the account. when the market was relatively sluggish recently, he stabilized his mentality and continued to add positions. "thanks to myself for always investing, i almost got my money back when i came back with 3,000 points."

the return of 3,000 points has inspired wider market enthusiasm, and "a shares" have been on the hot search list one after another. li ming's same city group, community grocery shopping group, and even high school classmates who have been inactive for a long time have begun to discuss the stock market.

some people opened an account that had not been used for two years, and it increased by 50,000 in one day; some people lamented that the stocks they had held for a year finally paid back; and many novices who had no habit of stock trading chose to buy funds, hoping to catch up with this rare wave. quotes.

a-shares recovered 3,000 points, which has extraordinary significance.

independent financial commentator guo shiliang told china news weekly that 3,000 points is the lifeline of the a-share market and the center of value. since a-shares reached 3,000 points for the first time in february 2007, they have experienced nearly 50 so-called "3,000-point defense battles." 3,000 points has also been a "psychological defense line" for investors for many years, so this round of rise is of great significance.

confidence returned and enthusiasm spread. on the first day after returning to 3000 points, li ming, who wanted to increase his position after the market opened, found that the trading software even experienced delays and lags.

the trading software of several brokerages has encountered such a problem. the real-time price is a beat slower, and everyone who rushes to buy cannot buy it. everyone speculates: "a-shares are so popular that the software is stuck?" "the server can't withstand this wave." quotes".

under the hot trading conditions, delays occurred in the shanghai stock exchange's trading system. some brokers reported that "customer orders increased sharply in the morning and orders were delayed." on the same day, the shanghai stock exchange also issued an announcement regarding abnormal trading conditions.

judging from transaction data, a-share transaction volume exceeded rmb 1 trillion on september 25, 26, and 27.

not only was the overall market index rising gratifyingly, the performance of some sectors and individual stocks also exceeded expectations. china news weekly found that in this round of rising prices, core assets have been favored by big funds, many heavyweight stocks have reached daily limits, and real estate, liquor and other sectors have exploded across the board for two consecutive days.

what li ming didn't expect was that the real estate stocks that had recently been bargain hunting had gone up like crazy for two consecutive days. especially on september 26, nearly 20 real estate stocks hit their daily limit; liquor stocks also "rose" based on their strength and became hotly searched. on september 26, the liquor sector saw its largest increase in recent times, reaching 7.54%.

the "benefits" of this round of stock market have been put into the wallet of almost every investor. on september 26 and 27, 5,143 and 5,226 stocks rose respectively in the shanghai and shenzhen markets. li ming lamented that he hadn't seen such a comprehensive counterattack in a long time.

unprecedented, policy mix exceeds expectations

the rapid return of this festive "bull" trend in a-shares cannot be separated from the strong catalyst of policies.

first, on september 24, the financial regulatory authorities launched a package of policies to support the economy and capital market at a press conference held by the state council information office. the central bank announced "quantitative easing" for the stock market - a targeted liquidity injection into the stock market through two targeted structural monetary tools, with the first batch of 800 billion yuan.

then, on september 26, the political bureau meeting of the cpc central committee clearly emphasized that efforts should be made to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and open up the blocking points for social security, insurance, financial management and other funds to enter the market; it is necessary to support the mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, and steadily promote the reform of public funds and study and introduce policies and measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.

it is worth noting that compared with "boosting investor confidence" mentioned at the politburo meeting in july, this meeting clearly stated that "efforts should be made to boost the capital market" and the policy signal is stronger.

"these measures to stabilize the market are unprecedented in the history of china's stock market." morgan stanley commented on china's recent policy package in its latest research report.

zheng zhigang, a professor at the school of finance at renmin university of china, told china news weekly that in recent days, regulators have resorted to "every possible means" to boost the capital market. different from previous stimulus policies, stimulus policies that go beyond the capital market itself have become the core key to stimulating the rise of the stock market.

specifically, the package of policies on september 24 contained a huge amount of information: rrr cuts, interest rate cuts, down payment cuts, and existing mortgage interest rates; the politburo meeting on september 26 rarely analyzed the economic situation, involving finance, currency, and capital. policies in many fields such as market, employment, private economy, etc. regarding the real estate market, the expression "stopped falling and stabilized" was used, which has never happened before.

in zheng zhigang's view, this round of policies is very different in that it focuses on the overall development of the macro economy while specifically stimulating the capital market. the capital market is the "barometer" of the economy, and the stock market reflects more confidence in the future development of the economy. in addition to injecting funds into the capital market and standardizing development, policy adjustments to real estate, private economy, tax optimization, etc. that can stabilize future expectations have given the market confidence in longer-term growth.

after the big move was released, relevant policies began to be implemented at an accelerated pace. on the evening of september 26, the central financial office and the china securities regulatory commission jointly issued the "guiding opinions on promoting medium- and long-term funds to enter the market"; on september 27, the central bank announced that it will lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions starting from september 27, 2024. 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). with the implementation of interest rate policies, 1 trillion in liquidity will officially reach the market.

in addition to policy stimulus, the recent accelerated correction is also inseparable from market fundamentals. in fact, a-shares have always hidden the power of reversal.

zhu zhenxin, president and chief economist of the asymptotic investment research institute, analyzed that there are actually three main factors supporting stock prices from the market: first, the entire fundamentals and valuation of the stock market are now at an absolute historical bottom, which is consistent with there are essential differences in the battle to defend 3,000 points in the past two years, which is also the most basic reason for supporting the stock market counterattack; secondly, the clearing of market risks is nearing completion; thirdly, the federal reserve cut interest rates as scheduled in september, which solved the capital outflow risk that the market had previously worried about. .

after the 3,000-point carnival, investment must be rational

after the shock wave of rising a shares this week, more investors are paying attention to whether the rise can be sustained.

"the 3,000 yuan i lost this month is back, but the 20,000 yuan i lost last month is still there! the index is back, but all the money has not been back yet." some investors said on social platforms.

while some people are adding positions, there are also people who are hesitating whether to continue to be "friends of time." such a "roller coaster" stock market situation has made some investors feel uneasy and choose to wait and see.

in the long run, what everyone is more concerned about is, has a new round of bull market really arrived?

"although it is exciting that the stock market has returned to the 3,000-point confidence level, we cannot simply think that a bull market is coming. at present, further observation is needed." zheng zhigang reminded.

zhu zhenxin told china news weekly that breaking the downward spiral is only the first step, and it is not easy to achieve "stabilization" of the market. from a mid- to long-term perspective, the current situation is likely to be at the bottom. although we can remain optimistic in the mid-term, after the sharp rise stimulated by policies, we may face shock fluctuations in the short term.

in the investment market, opportunities and risks always coexist. in today's hot market, rational investment is also a required course for mature investors.

li ming discovered that in the stock exchange group, the group owner rarely set up a concise and concise group announcement: "the stock market has risen sharply, be careful of risk retracements." the consensus reached by everyone is that although the national day market is generally good based on past experience, after all the 7-day market shutdown is not a short time, and there may be a lot of uncertainty in the market.

"we all look forward to the arrival of the bull market, but judging from past experience, retail investors who enter the market are more likely to be trapped under the 'fast bull' market that rises too fast. stock markets that are truly stable and profitable are often more stable." it doesn't matter if there are fluctuations in the market, what's important is a definite, long-term upward trend," li ming concluded from his many years of stock trading experience.

of course, specific investment strategies, methods, and rhythm are also important, and it is not advisable to blindly follow the trend of entering the market.

zhu zhenxin believes that of course more time will be needed for the implementation and fermentation of policies. "now we can act cautiously. although there is a certain degree of uncertainty, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. we still need to grasp the rhythm and direction of specific strategies."

in addition to confidence, you must also be patient. what the market is looking forward to is a real "slow bull".