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the confidence is back!

driven by a series of major news, capital market sentiment has been particularly high these days. today, a-shares and hong kong stocks continue to advance rapidly. the chinext index once soared by 12%, the hang seng technology index once rose by more than 7%, and the shanghai and shenzhen 300 index once rose by more than 4%.

at the same time, foreign-funded institutions are also betting long on chinese assets. morgan stanley strategist laura wang believes that the csi 300 index will rise another 10% in the short term. another agency said that there is still 20% room for the chinese stock market to rise. in addition, goldman sachs and morgan stanley simultaneously raised the target price of bilibili, j.p. morgan raised the target price of jd.com, and the target price of ctrip group was also raised by foreign institutions.

just now, another good news came from the real estate sector. rumor has it that purchase restriction policies in the shanghai and shenzhen property markets may be loosened. although the news has not yet been officially confirmed, in the secondary market, real estate stocks collectively rose. in the hong kong stock market, kaisa group once soared by more than 80%, vanke enterprise, longfor group, greentown china, fantasia holdings, etc. rose by more than 15%. %. in the a-share market, more than 20 real estate stocks, including vanke a, shenzhen zhenye a, and poly development, reached their daily limit.

hong kong stocks surge

today, the hong kong stock market is as lively as a-shares. among them, hong kong’s hang seng index once rose by more than 4%, and the hang seng technology index once rose by more than 7%. as of the close, the hang seng index rose 3.55% and the hang seng technology index rose 5.78%. sectors such as medicine, retail, healthcare, photovoltaics, civil aviation and airports, real estate, and diversified finance have collectively strengthened. this week, the hang seng index rose by 13% cumulatively, and the hang seng technology index rose by more than 20%.

in addition, the trading volume of hong kong stocks exceeded hk$440 billion today, a record high. in terms of individual stocks, kaisa group once soared more than 80% during the session and closed up 76.92%, gome retail rose 35%, and wuxi apptec rose nearly 24%. brokerage stocks also rose collectively. guotai junan international rose nearly 46%, cicc and china galaxy rose nearly 18%, and citic securities rose more than 14%. in addition, ctrip group rose by more than 12%, bilibili rose by more than 10%, jd group rose by more than 9%, meituan rose by more than 8%, and ping an of china rose by nearly 7%.

morgan stanley issued a research report stating that given the mainland’s financial and monetary policy mix and the supportive tone of the politburo meeting, it is expected that stock market sentiment and a-share trading volume will be boosted, and will benefit high-quality and high-beta securities firms. there is a 70% to 80% chance that citic securities’ stock price will rise in the next 30 days. morgan stanley gave citic securities h shares an "overweight" rating.

at the same time, goldman sachs raised bilibili's rating from "neutral" to "buy" and raised the target price from hk$129/share to hk$176/share. goldman sachs said that bilibili’s net profit margin will reach 10% to 15% by 2026, driven by an increase in market financial forecasts in the next 6 to 12 months, mainly due to a better new game life cycle and faster advertising growth than peers. , cost improvement, etc. the market still underestimates its game business contribution and advertising monetization potential, supporting the bank's forecast of the company's earnings per share forecast to be 40% higher than market expectations from 2025 to 2026. goldman sachs has raised its forecast for bilibili’s game revenue, and the relevant figures from 2024 to 2025 are about 12% higher than market forecasts.

morgan stanley issued a report stating that bilibili’s short-term factors are positive, such as the upside potential for the third quarter of “san mao” (starting on september 22), strong advertising, break-even profit upside potential, and average daily active users (dau) and total time spent continue to expand. the bank raised bilibili's us stock target price from us$15 per share to us$20, maintaining a "market perform" rating.

the target price of e-commerce giant jd.com was also raised. j.p. morgan’s latest report points out that since walmart sold its shares at the end of august, jd.com’s h shares and u.s. adr stock prices have rebounded by 24% and 27% respectively, outperforming the performance of the kraneshares china concept internet index and major e-commerce peers over the same period. mainly thanks to the positive news and low valuation of the appliance trade-in policy. the bank expects jd.com to take profits in the short term, but does not believe that outperformance is over because it sees its revenue improving to mid-year single-digit growth in the third and fourth quarters. j.p. morgan reiterated its "overweight" rating and raised the target prices of jd.com's us shares and h shares from us$36 per share and hk$140 per share to us$40 and hk$155 per share respectively.

during today's trading, ctrip group's hong kong stock price also soared 17% and hit a new all-time high. morgan stanley recently released a research report stating that it prefers online travel platforms (ota) to online entertainment platforms. it raised ctrip's us stock target price from us$59 per share to us$61, with an "overweight" rating. .

hong kong shares of china hongqiao also rose nearly 10%. moody's affirmed china hongqiao group co., ltd.'s "ba3" corporate family rating (cfr) and raised its outlook to stable from negative. morgan stanley also issued a research report stating that it maintains an "overweight" rating on china hongqiao's hong kong stocks, with a target price of hk$15.10 per share. the bank pointed out that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of 2024 increased by 273% year-on-year to 9.155 billion yuan (rmb); excluding one-time items, the recurring net profit was approximately 10.5 billion yuan, which was better than the bank's expectations. the better profit performance was due to the strong profit contribution from the aluminum and alumina businesses, and was supported by the elasticity of aluminum demand and tight alumina supply.

foreign capital is bullish

well-known investment bank morgan stanley said on the 26th that from a technical perspective, china's csi 300 index may still have room for about 10% growth in the short term. this prediction is based on the bank's borrowing cost for china's refinancing plan (2.25%) analysis with the current dividend rate of the csi 300 index (2.46%).

morgan stanley strategist laura wang believes that the politburo meeting and the stimulus plan announced by the central bank and other regulators earlier this week are very positive. what really surprised the market were the market stabilization measures, which were unprecedented. the bank pointed out that the most important thing now is to follow up quickly and clarify the details and timetable of implementation and implementation.

scott rubner, managing director of goldman sachs' global markets department, said that the chinese stock market has been strong in recent days, with the nasdaq golden dragon index soaring 19% in the past four days. once the u.s. election is over, the chinese stock market should become an important part of investors' investment plans. scott rubner believes that the long-awaited recovery of china's stock market may finally be here, and if so, investors should want to get involved. "i really think this time is different for china. the resurgent market has quickly become a hot trade in november and december after the u.s. election," he wrote in a note to clients on thursday. he was referring to demand for call options expiring at the end of the year.

goldman sachs noted that before the recent rally, hedge funds had less than 7% exposure to chinese stocks, about the lowest level in five years. but earlier this week, they reversed course and piled into china's stock market, with tuesday's single-day net buying the largest since march 2021 and the first in the past decade. the second largest single-day net buying volume.

david chao, global market strategist for asia pacific (excluding japan) at global investment management company invesco, said this may be a good time to re-examine chinese stocks. china has launched a meaningful monetary stimulus plan, and if it is fully implementation could bring trillions of yuan in liquidity and send a strong signal that the government is dealing with economic headwinds. with chinese markets closed next week for the golden week holiday, domestic investors may be concerned that hong kong stocks may continue to rise while they are away. he said, "as the chinese stock market has risen by nearly 10% in the past three days, investors' fomo (fear of missing out) is high. based on historical valuations, there is still 20% room for the chinese stock market to rise."