rmb appreciation "broke 7"! how does it affect you and me?
2024-09-27
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on september 25, the intraday appreciation of the offshore rmb against the u.s. dollar, which more reflected the expectations of international investors, exceeded the 7.0 mark, setting a 16-month high; the onshore rmb exchange rate against the u.s. dollar appreciated to fluctuate around 7.0. some insiders pointed out that the rmb has entered a moderate appreciation channel, and the current bullish sentiment in the foreign exchange market is strong. the previously accumulated demand for foreign exchange settlement will be further released. there may be some room for appreciation after the rmb exchange rate "breaks 7" upwards.
exchanging 100,000 us dollars will save 27,000 yuan, which will benefit import companies.
the rmb exchange rate showed a clear appreciation trend. the reporter noticed that from late july to the present, the rmb exchange rate has fluctuated and risen. the onshore rmb exchange rate against the u.s. dollar has appreciated from 7.27 to 7.0, and the offshore rmb exchange rate against the u.s. dollar has appreciated from 7.31 to 6.99.
regarding the rise in the rmb exchange rate, zhou maohua, a macro researcher at the financial markets department of everbright bank, analyzed that from the domestic situation, solid fundamentals provide solid support for the rmb exchange rate; my country has launched a package of policies such as rrr cuts and interest rate cuts, which has boosted market confidence. in addition, the federal reserve started to cut interest rates, and the u.s. dollar index fell overall, promoting the passive appreciation of the rmb against the u.s. dollar.
after the rmb appreciates, the costs of studying abroad, overseas travel, etc. will decrease. the reporter simply calculated that if a resident needs to exchange 100,000 u.s. dollars in foreign exchange, compared with the high point of 7.27 in the exchange rate of rmb against the u.s. dollar in july this year, the current exchange rate can save about 27,000 yuan.
rmb appreciation will also bring about foreign debt effects and cost effects. among them, from the perspective of the external debt effect, when the rmb appreciates, the aviation and airport, industrial metal and energy metal sectors, which have a higher proportion of us dollar debt, will have less pressure to repay foreign debt denominated in us dollars, and the stock prices will have a short-term boost; the cost effect will come from look, the appreciation of the rmb means a decrease in import prices, especially in industries that are partially dependent on commodity imports, such as papermaking, basic chemicals, transportation and other industries. an increase in the relative value of the rmb can reduce the cost of commodities priced in us dollars, thereby increasing the profit.
the rmb exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 6.8 and 6.9
looking forward to the market outlook, wen bin, chief economist of minsheng bank, said that the domestic economy's stabilizing and improving trend has been further consolidated and strengthened, the international balance of payments has remained basically stable, and the resilience of the foreign exchange market has been significantly enhanced, laying a solid foundation for the long-term stability of the rmb exchange rate. although uncertainties in the external environment and the trend of the us dollar still exist, it is expected that the rmb exchange rate will most likely remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
wang qing, chief macro analyst of oriental jincheng, said that the current bullish sentiment in the foreign exchange market is strong, and the previously accumulated demand for foreign exchange settlement will be further released. there may still be some room for appreciation after the rmb exchange rate "breaks 7" upwards.
cheng shi, chief economist of icbc international, pointed out that the rmb has entered a moderate appreciation channel, and the central range of the rmb exchange rate in the next 12 months is relatively clear, and is expected to fluctuate between 6.8 and 6.9.
text/guangzhou daily new flower city reporter wang chuhan
photo/guangzhou daily new flower city reporter wang chuhan
li guangman, editor of guangzhou daily new flower city
