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zheng's view of the market: a-shares surge again as a major positive news comes out at noon

2024-09-26

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a-shares surged on thursday, swallowing up wednesday's long upper shadow. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 3.61% to 3000.95 points; the shenzhen composite index rose 4.00%, the chinext composite index rose 3.72%, the science and technology innovation 50 index rose 3.87%, and the beijing stock exchange 50 index rose 2.97%. the total turnover of all a-shares increased to 1166.4 billion yuan, slightly higher than the 1161.7 billion yuan on wednesday.

in terms of individual stocks, the big consumer sectors such as brewing, food and beverages performed well. real estate, decoration and building materials and other real estate chain stocks also performed well. there were also many other sectors that performed well, such as securities, aviation and airports. there were few stocks that fell, and the cssc, precious metals, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors were relatively weak.

the market performance was rather tepid in the morning, but the bulls should have a slight upper hand. surprisingly, there was a big positive news at noon, so many blue chips rose to the daily limit in the afternoon, which was very rare.

the big good news at noon was: on september 26, the top leaders held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the next economic work. the meeting required that the stock policy be effectively implemented, the incremental policy be introduced with more efforts, the pertinence and effectiveness of the policy measures be further improved, and efforts be made to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.

this means that the economy will inevitably accelerate in the fourth quarter, which is almost equivalent to suggesting that policies will be "substantially" increased in the fourth quarter.

the market can naturally see this clearly, and investor confidence has been boosted. the content that promotes investor confidence lies more in the details, and there is no lack of details. in addition to the expected mention of the real estate market, this important meeting even directly mentioned the capital market, so the positive effect has been further improved.

the meeting stressed the need to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium- and long-term funds into the market, and clear the bottlenecks for social security, insurance, and financial management funds to enter the market. the meeting also stressed the need to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.

in terms of surrounding stock markets, the us stock market was in a consolidation trend overnight, and the three major stock indexes did not rise or fall much. on thursday, the hong kong stock market soared, with the hang seng index up 4.16% and the hang seng technology index up 7.27%. the logic of the rise should be similar to that of the a-shares, and even the performance of the sectors is not much different. the domestic real estate stocks and large consumer sectors of the hong kong stock market led the gains.

market sentiment should have been initially activated, but the rapid growth in the short term is also prone to induce some shocks. investors should pay attention to the rhythm in their operations and usually insist on buying on dips or intraday shocks rather than blindly chasing up. judging from the volume, it seems that there is a lot of volume at present, but compared with the historical norm, it is actually not too large, so the sentiment can only be considered initially activated.

in my personal opinion, only when the funds that prefer to save or buy government bonds are significantly diverted to the stock market, market sentiment can be fully activated and policy goals can be perfectly achieved.

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