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why didn't the israeli army take advantage of the situation to launch a ground offensive after several days of missile attacks between lebanon and israel? expert analysis →

2024-09-26

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recently, the chief of staff of the israel defense forces, general halevy, said that the israeli air strikes on lebanon were "preparations for 'possible ground operations'". previously, many analysts believed that israel would "take advantage of the situation" to launch a ground offensive after the "pager" incident, but so far,the ground operation has not been launched. what are the current factors preventing the israeli army from launching a ground offensive?let’s take a look at the analysis of niu xinchun, professor at the institute of china-arab countries of ningxia university.

israel has no advantage in launching a ground war against lebanon

niu xinchun, professor at the institute of chinese and arab countries of ningxia university: it is unlikely that israel will launch a ground offensive. in the past few months, israel has said several times that the battle plan has been completed and that it will be launched soon, but it has not been launched until today. on the evening of the 23rd, the israeli cabinet held a meeting to discuss whether to launch a ground war, but ultimately no decision was made. why is it so difficult to make up your mind? for israel,if not a ground war, then through air strikes and other electronic warfare, such as detonating pagers, canlet hezbollah meet its own conditionsthis is israel's bestbecause for israel,israel in the air and intelligence, including electronic warfare, isenjoy absolute advantagefrom the past week till now, although hezbollah in lebanon has been able to fight back against israel's air strikes, the actual damage and casualties caused to israel are very small, so israel has an absolute advantage in this regard, and it is ideal for it to achieve its goals through this means.

israel is unwilling to bear the cost of a ground war

niu xinchun, professor at the institute of chinese and arab countries of ningxia university: if this cannot be achieved and ground troops need to be deployed, it will be difficult for israel to make a decision.on the ground, israel has little advantage.if they enter the ground, they will inevitably have to go into tunnels, and israel will not have an advantage. some sources said that if a ground war is launched, israel will suffer at least hundreds to thousands of casualties.the cost is highwhether israel is willing to bear such a high price is a question.

ground war cannot completely solve the hezbollah problem

niu xinchun, professor at the institute of chinese arab countries of ningxia university: another more serious problem is that even if a ground war is launched,israel cannot completely solve the problem of hezbollah in lebanonisrael fought ground wars in 1982 and 2006, but failed to resolve the issue of hezbollah in lebanon. israel will not be able to completely resolve the issue of hezbollah in lebanon this time either, so this is a difficult choice facing israel.

(cctv news client)

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