2024-09-26
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eric jackson, a veteran technology investor and founder of hedge fund emj capital, said the u.s. stock market could see an “everything goes up” situation, especially technology stocks.
in a recent interview, he said:the current economic growth and interest rate environment is reminiscent of the early days of the bull market in 1982.that was one of the best bull markets in u.s. stock market history.
jackson added,in the first 10 months of the 1982 bull market, the nasdaq surged 107%.
“the last time the yield curve was inverted for such a long time and then eventually inverted as we have seen recently in a benign economic environment with falling interest rates was in august 1982,” he explained.
"when that happened, we had a 10-month rally in the u.s. stock market. the nasdaq was up 107% in those 10 months. so i think we're probably going to have a rebound in everything," he added.
according to jackson, this means that all stocks, from small-cap tech stocks to large-cap tech stocks, will rise together.
in addition, data from firsttrust shows thatwhen that happened in the summer of 1982, the s&p 500 kicked off a five-year bull market that delivered a total return of 229% and an annualized gain of 26.7%, the second-highest annual gain ever.
jackson pointed out,the combination of the fed’s rate cuts, resilient economic growth and a non-inverted yield curve is generally favorable for risk assets.especially if inflation remains subdued.
it is worth mentioning thatuntil earlier this month, the 2-year treasury yield had exceeded the 10-year yield since 2022, the longest inversion ever.the u.s. treasury yield curve has always been a key indicator watched by the market because it can have an impact on a range of asset prices and has historically been seen as a signal of the economic outlook.
the curve is usually upward sloping, so an inversion often means investors are more pessimistic about the long-term outlook and expect a recession to be imminent. previous inversions occurred in the months before the 2020, 2008 and 2001 recessions.
however, jackson said, "this time seems different from 1982 because the u.s. economy is still in good shape."