appreciation! rmb once returned to the "6" digit! someone calculated: paid more than 10,000 yuan
2024-09-26
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qianjiang evening news
on september 25, the latest news from the foreign exchange market showed thatthe offshore rmb exchange rate rose above the 7.0 mark, reaching a high of 6.9952, returning to the 6 range, hitting a new high since may 2023.
the us dollar exchange rate rebounded slightly today. as of around 8 am, the offshore rmb exchange rate was 7.02 and the onshore rmb exchange rate was 7.03. the rmb exchange rate trend remained strong.
industry insiders said that the recent package of policy measures to stabilize the economy have taken effect, promoting continued improvement in social expectations, the trend of china's economic consolidation and stabilization has become clearer, and there is a solid foundation for maintaining a stable rmb exchange rate.
rmb/usd exchange rate chart. screenshot from a securities agency
rmb exchange rate returns to 6 rangethe highest level in 16 months
on the 24th, the state council information office held a press conference, and pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, said that the monetary policies of major economies have been adjusted recently, so the depreciation pressure of the rmb exchange rate has been significantly alleviated and has turned to appreciation.
pan gongsheng said that the exchange rate is a complex issue, which refers to the price relationship between currencies. it is affected by many factors, such as economic growth, monetary policy, financial markets, geopolitics, unexpected risk events, etc., which will have an impact on the exchange rate.
looking back at the first half of the year, the rmb exchange rate against the us dollar was under pressure due to the market's repeated expectations of the fed's interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the us dollar index. entering the second half of the year, the us dollar index gradually weakened, the fed started to cut interest rates, and the monetary policy shifted, and the rmb exchange rate strengthened again.at 8:00 a.m. beijing time yesterday, the offshore rmb exchange rate against the u.s. dollar rose to 6.9952, rebounding about 4% from the low point in july. on the same day, the rmb central parity rate against the u.s. dollar rose 308 points to 7.0202 from the previous day, appreciating to the highest level since may 22, 2023.
in this regard, a senior foreign exchange analyst from a large state-owned bank in zhejiang said that the appreciation of the rmb this time was actually affected by multiple factors. first of all, the appreciation was not a matter of just a few days. this wave of rmb appreciation has been going on for about two months. "at that time, there was an expectation of a rate cut in the us dollar, which led to the appreciation of non-us currencies in the foreign exchange market; especially after the appreciation of the japanese yen, it also quickly led to the appreciation of the rmb; in addition, some economic data showed signs of stabilization, and the domestic fundamentals were improving, which pushed up the rmb exchange rate; plus yesterday, the central bank introduced some stimulating policies, especially some market-friendly policies, which led to the stock market rising immediately. under this background, in the short term, a lot of foreign hot money will flow into the country, optimistic about rmb assets. this in turn led to a rapid rise in the rmb exchange rate in the short term."
the above-mentioned analysts said that in the short and medium term, our ability to attract foreign capital has increased, so some foreign capital will come in to invest in rmb assets, especially the stock market; because foreign capital must convert foreign currency into rmb if it wants to invest in the stock market, so it will have a relatively strong boosting effect on the rmb in the short term.
buy foreign exchange one month earlier$100,000 overpaid $12,000
"i didn't expect that this wave of breaking 7 would come so quickly. in early august, the highest point of the usd/rmb exchange rate was almost close to 7.3 yuan. in just over a month, the rmb exchange rate has risen by 4 points. i bought foreign exchange more than a month early, and i lost a lot."yesterday at noon, ms. lin from hangzhou looked at the exchange rate on her mobile phone and told chao news reporters.
ms. lin's son is a senior this year and intends to study abroad. she wants to reserve foreign exchange for her son as soon as possible, so she has been concerned about the exchange rate trend. "at the end of july, the exchange rate of the us dollar to the rmb was close to 7.3, and it fell in august. i remember that it was around 7.15 in mid-august. i thought it was much cheaper than before, so i went to the bank to buy foreign exchange." ms. lin used the credit limit of her and her husband to buy a total of 100,000 us dollars, spending more than 750,000 rmb. after buying foreign exchange, ms. lin immediately deposited the us dollar at a one-year interest rate. at that time, the us dollar deposit rate of that bank was 4.75%.
unexpectedly, the exchange rate fluctuated rapidly. in just over a month, the us dollar exchange rate continued to fall. as of yesterday, it had fallen below 7 yuan. at 11 noon, ms. lin opened the mobile phone app and saw that the bank's real-time us dollar purchase rate was 7.0353."in just over a month, i overpaid 11,700 yuan, nearly 12,000 yuan." ms. lin couldn't help feeling a little painful when she talked about it.
(the above is the bank's real-time exchange rate quoted on september 25)
in this regard, the above-mentioned senior foreign exchange analyst said,in the short term, fluctuations in the exchange rate between the us dollar and the rmb are normal, and individuals do not need to worry about it. although the exchange rate has fallen, the us dollar interest rates of various banks were still relatively high one or two months ago, which also offset part of the exchange rate losses.
"however, individuals and companies should not blindly chase high prices, nor should they blindly judge whether the exchange rate has reached the bottom. overall, the rmb exchange rate is still fluctuating in both directions, and the fluctuation range will not be particularly large. therefore, it is recommended that you do not think that a unilateral market has started and make some investment judgments or blind investments. you should still purchase foreign exchange according to actual needs."the above analyst said.
us dollar deposit rate breaks 4some banks have already reduced their interest rates several times this year.
"i just received a notice from the bank that our one-year us dollar deposit interest rate will be reduced from 4.65% to around 3.7%. if you want to deposit, you must hurry before september 26th." yesterday morning, mr. hu received a wechat message from a customer manager of a city commercial bank in hangzhou, telling him that the us dollar interest rate was going to drop again.
"the rate has dropped a lot this time. when i deposited money in this bank in july, it was still 5%. in august, it dropped to 4.65%, and now it has dropped to the 30s. fortunately, i chose a two-year deposit in advance." mr. hu said that the two-year interest rates for us dollars in various banks are rare now. considering that the us dollar is already in the interest rate cut channel, he locked in a two-year interest rate of 4.7% in advance.
it is reported that on september 18, the federal reserve announced that it would lower the target range of the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a level between 4.75% and 5%. this is the first interest rate cut by the federal reserve since march 2020. as the federal reserve's interest rate cut "boots" landed, the us dollar deposit products of many banks also began to lower interest rates one after another.
"after the federal reserve cut interest rates, our bank lowered the interest rate on us dollar deposits on september 20. currently, the interest rates of our 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year us dollar deposit products are all 4%, a reduction of 50 basis points respectively." a customer manager at a branch of bank of beijing in hangzhou revealed that interest rates may be further lowered in the future.
"on september 14, our bank's us dollar deposit interest rate was lowered once. the one-month, three-month, six-month and one-year deposit rates for a minimum deposit of us$10,000 have all dropped by 10 basis points from mid-august. after the interest rate drop, the one-month, three-month, six-month and one-year deposit rates for a minimum deposit of us$10,000 are currently 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.55% and 4.45%, respectively. however, this interest rate may only last until september 27, after which our bank's us dollar deposit interest rate may be further lowered." a customer manager at the hangzhou branch of a city commercial bank headquartered in jiangsu told reporters.
in fact, before the fed announced the rate cut, many banks also lowered their us dollar deposit rates in advance. the reporter learned that since the second half of this year, us dollar deposit rates have been on a downward trend, and us dollar deposit rates above 5% are hard to find.
chao news reporter yu pingli editor in charge: zhou qin
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