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the "aftermath" of the fed's drastic interest rate cut: the "ghost of inflation" reappears in the bond market!

2024-09-26

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cailianshe news, september 26 (editor: xiaoxiang)there are signs that the federal reserve's aggressive launch of an easing cycle is reigniting concerns about inflation in the u.s. bond market, as some investors worry that loose financial conditions could reignite price pressures.

earlier this week we introducedlonger-term u.s. treasury yields, which are particularly sensitive to the inflation outlook, have recently risen to their highest level since early september. the 10-year u.s. treasury yield, known as the "anchor of global asset pricing," rose instead of falling after the federal reserve's sharp interest rate cut, as some investors worried that the fed would shift its focus from curbing inflation to protecting the job market, which might lead to a rebound in inflation data that has not yet fully returned to the fed's 2% target.

“i think if we’re in a rate-cutting environment and the fed has said it wants to support employment more before there’s some slack in the labor market, then we’re going to see some more growth in the economy,” said cayla seder, macro multi-asset strategist at state street global markets. how quickly inflation can reach the fed's target will be a question。”

she expects long-term bond yields to climb further as markets bet on stronger economic growth and inflation.

fed chairman powell said at a press conference after the meeting last week that the 50 basis point rate cut that started this round of the fed's easing cycle was a "recalibration" of interest rates, aimed at maintaining a strong labor market while keeping inflation sustainable toward the fed's 2% target. the dot plot forecasts of fed officials also indicate that the pace of rate cuts will be relatively slower than the market expects.