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over the past few months, although most people on wall street are optimistic about the prospect of a soft landing for the us economy, danielle dimartino booth, a senior economist and former economic adviser to the federal reserve bank of dallas, has been warning of the risk of recession.

she said that although the us gdp data appears to continue to grow in 2023 and 2024, the us economy has actually fallen into recession, and the most obvious manifestation is the continued weakness in the job market.

and amid weak u.s. employment data in recent months, booth warned that developments in the labor market suggest the u.s. economy is on shaky ground.

several clues to the weak u.s. economy

she highlighted several key areas of the u.s. economy that are currently showing signs of weakness.

first, it is taking longer and longer for unemployed americans to find new jobs., which has resulted in a growing number of workers who were once eligible for unemployment insurance now losing their benefits.

workers in most states have 26 weeks of paid unemployment benefits, but 21% of workers now take more than 27 weeks to find a new job, a 3% increase from last year, according to the bureau of labor statistics. the national average duration of unemployment climbed to 21 weeks in september, according to government data.

the second factor isthe number of part-time workers in the u.s. has climbed to an all-time high, suggesting that the hiring situation is not as strong as it seems.

data from the u.s. bureau of labor statistics showed that in august this year, the number of employees working part-time climbed to 28.2 million, the highest level since the government began recording the data in the 1960s.

booth attributed the surge in part-time employment to the so-called "gig economy," in which more and more unemployed americans, unable to find stable work, turn to platforms like uber to keep their income.

employment issues will turn into consumption issues

booth predicted that weakness in the u.s. job market could then translate into weak consumption, one of her main concerns about the economy.

federal reserve economists have begun to focus on weakness in consumer spending, with consumption falling or flat in most fed districts, according to the fed's latest beige book.

the decline in u.s. consumption appears to have had an impact on key industries. data from the institute for supply management show that the u.s. manufacturing sector has contracted in 21 of the past 22 months, while inventories have increased. data from the national association of realtors show that the u.s. real estate market has been suppressed over the past two years, and this trend continued in august, when u.s. existing home sales fell again by 2.5%.

booth predicted that investors may see more signs of economic weakness in u.s. gdp data, noting that recent gdp data showed the economy adding nearly 1 million fewer jobs than expected in the year ending march 2024.