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on september 25, the market rose and fell throughout the day, and the shanghai composite index lost 2,900 points. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 1.16%, the shenzhen component index rose 1.21%, and the chinext index rose 1.62%.

the trading volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets today was 1,157.4 billion yuan, an increase of 186.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the first time it has exceeded one trillion yuan since may 6. more stocks rose than fell, with more than 4,100 stocks rising in the market.

in terms of sectors, diversified finance, media, cross-border payments, e-commerce and other sectors led the gains, while a few sectors such as liquor fell.

although a-shares are still mainly rising today, unlike yesterday's bald positive line, the index finally got out of the "explosive upper shadow line" based on the gap-up opening. among them, the shanghai composite index recorded a negative line, and the wind all a closed with a positive line.

usually at this time, experienced stockholders have begun to be alert to the risk of a correction. at least in terms of operation, "buying more stocks when the market is low" is better than "chasing higher and getting trapped".

looking back at the beginning of february this year, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and it had a strong 8-day winning streak. the shanghai composite index rose all the way from 2635 until it regained 3000 points before entering a sideways fluctuation.

why is it that today, just one day after a sharp rise, the market is showing signs of correction? has the “bull market experience card” expired?

first of all, i suggest that you don’t rush and keep a normal mind.

in the early stages of a weak market turning into a strong one, the general mentality of investors is "question first, then believe", and they have a strong desire to rush out at the slightest sign of trouble; on the contrary, in the middle and late stages of a bull market, when "bottom fishing can make money" has become a consensus, investors are more likely to choose "pattern" or even increase their positions during a correction.

secondly, as intraday fluctuations increase, if you feel that you cannot grasp it, you should look at the trend more clearly.

for example, investors who entered the market before today are likely to have a relatively large profit cushion in the short term, and they may even be the main force in reducing positions at today's highs. assuming (just assuming) that in the next few trading days, the market fills the gap of today's gap-up opening and further falls back, they only need to exit the market at the pre-set profit-taking point - and this is the most unexpected trend of this rebound.

combined with the huge optimistic expectations on policy and news since yesterday, it is actually hard to imagine any changes in the short term that would be enough to reverse the market's desire for a big rise.

based on this view, let us review two major details of today's market.

1) big finance continues to lead the market

as of the closing, sectors such as diversified finance, banking, insurance and real estate, and securities all appeared on the list of gainers.

judging from the cumulative increase in the past five trading days, the most active factor in this rebound from its inception to its outbreak was the pan-financial theme.

after all, the major positive news that was hotly discussed in the market yesterday came from the policy combination of "one bank, one bureau and one association".

to exaggerate a little, even if you don’t know what specific benefits they bring, it is enough to know that they are good for “stock trading” itself.

dongxing securities research report pointed out that policies are being implemented at an accelerated pace and innovative tools are exceeding market expectations.

the policy was introduced in the form of a combination of measures, and it is rare for the central bank, the china securities regulatory commission and the state administration of financial supervision to jointly issue it.

the central bank's policies cover the highly market-focused reserve requirement ratio cuts, reductions in interest rates on existing mortgage loans and down payment ratios, and adjustments to the central bank's policy interest rate. it has proposed new monetary policy tools beyond expectations to support stock market stability, provided securities firms, funds, and insurance institutions with policy tools to obtain liquidity from the central bank through asset pledges, and provided listed companies with policy tools for stock repurchases and increased holdings and re-lending. in essence, these are new channels for institutions and listed companies to increase leverage, and bring medium- and long-term sources of funds to the capital market. furthermore, from the description, we can see that there is still a lot of room for imagination in the intensity of support. in essence, the central bank provides the stock market with liquidity with great imagination through financial institutions and listed companies.

the csrc continues to promote new initiatives in institutional building, promotes the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market and promotes mergers and acquisitions, encourages listed companies to strengthen industrial integration, and recently released a draft guideline for market value management of listed companies to enhance the regulatory tolerance of mergers and acquisitions, which to a certain extent has given the capital market more room for development.

it believes that the investment value of leading institutions in the securities and insurance industries is expected to continue to increase in the future. in addition, in the context of the booming development of etfs, the investment value of securities etfs is also worthy of attention due to the differences in investment needs.

western securities also said that the deepening of capital market reform and high-quality development of the industry are expected to promote the fundamentals and valuation repair of the non-bank sector. currently, the valuation and holdings of the non-bank sector are at the bottom of the industry, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities for sector repair under the improvement of market sentiment.

2) stocks with negative net assets gain attention

the flush software shows that on the "market trend" list of gains, "net-negative stocks" performed outstandingly today, and rarely appeared among a series of short-term indicators.

this is because the china securities regulatory commission issued the "guidelines for the supervision of listed companies no. 10 - market value management (draft for comments)" last night. it requires that companies with long-term negative net assets should disclose valuation improvement plans, including goals, deadlines and specific measures, and make special explanations on the implementation of valuation improvement plans in the annual performance briefing.

simply put, stocks with negative net assets, especially those high-quality assets that have been "wrongly killed", have greater appreciation expectations, and stock speculation is all about "speculating on expectations."

correspondingly, when "oversold stocks waiting to rise" gradually become the hottest stocks in the current market, it is reasonable that the high-priced stocks that were popular in the early stage continue to retreat. today, china communications construction real estate has stepped out of the "ceiling and floor", which is quite representative.

data shows that as of today's closing, there are 732 constituent stocks under the concept of "negative net value stocks", of which 19 stocks have hit the daily limit.

according to statistics from securities times databao, as of yesterday's (september 24) close, excluding negative data, the number of stocks with negative net assets in the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets was 738, accounting for 13.79% of the entire a-share market. currently, the a-share net asset value ratio has jumped to a high in recent years and has exceeded many previous historical bottoms of the a-share market.

china galaxy securities' zhu qi believes that stocks with negative net assets should be selected from companies with relatively high return on investment capital and return on net assets. boxing securities research institute director xing xing believes that with the support of policies and the efforts of companies, stocks with negative net assets may continue to rise.

3) offshore rmb exchange rate breaks 7 in early trading

after yesterday's sharp rise, the offshore rmb broke through the important mark of 7 in early trading today, reaching 6.9915.

according to china securities journal, this means:

first, external funds highly recognized yesterday's positive news;

second, confidence in chinese assets is growing;

third, follow-up expectations for policies and fundamentals have also occurred.

where will the rmb go in the future? it may depend on three variables: first, the extent of the fed's interest rate cut. although it exceeded expectations in september, the subsequent path may be relatively flexible and will be decided on a case-by-case basis; second, the effect of domestic economic stimulus, effective demand will rebound quickly and steadily; third, the attitude of the regulatory authorities towards the exchange rate.

judging from the current trend, the certainty of the second largest variable may be gradually increasing.

in the morning, the central bank announced that in order to maintain a reasonable level of liquidity in the banking system, it will conduct a 300 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (mlf) operation on september 25, with a term of one year, a maximum bid rate of 2.3%, a minimum bid rate of 1.9%, and a winning rate of 2%. after the operation, the balance of the medium-term lending facility is 687.8 billion yuan. wind data shows that the last mlf winning rate was 2.3%.

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