how will the heavy-handed statement of “one bank, one commission and one bureau” affect the capital market? the latest interpretations from multiple institutions
2024-09-25
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on september 24, the state council information office held a press conference on financial support for high-quality economic development, and several important policies were launched at the same time. what positive impact will the policy combination have on the capital market? several securities firms released the latest interpretation:
major policies boost market confidence
guotai junan securities research report believes that the state council information office's press conference on "financial support for high-quality economic development" on september 24 directly hit the pain points and difficulties, and the content was pragmatic, especially the reduction of reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, reduction of existing mortgage interest rates, and support for structural monetary policy tools in the capital market, which have a positive effect on preventing risks, stabilizing expectations, and boosting confidence; and further stabilizing domestic demand requires the coordinated efforts of fiscal policies.
western securities said that this financial policy package covers three core directions of monetary, real estate and capital market policies. the implementation of a series of combined measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, coupled with support for real estate and stock markets, will create a good monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth and high-quality development, help improve liquidity expectations, and boost market confidence and risk appetite.
china galaxy securities said that based on the introduction of this round of unexpected policies, market confidence is expected to be effectively boosted, and the a-share market may usher in a recovery trend. the focus will be on the recovery slope of macro fundamentals in the future. at the same time, under the dual effects of favorable policies and improved liquidity, the hong kong stock market is also expected to move out of an upward trend. in the bond market, the long-term liquidity released by the reserve requirement ratio cut will increase the supply of funds in the bond market, help push bond yields down, and enhance the attractiveness of the bond market. among them, short-term interest rates are more sensitive to monetary policy, and the focus is on the allocation value of short-term bonds. long-term bonds may remain volatile in the short term, but under the policy guidance of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, they still have a high allocation value in the long run.
cicc pointed out that the state council information office's press conference on september 24th clearly released positive signals to stabilize the economy, the market and expectations, which brought about a significant improvement in investors' risk appetite. the current valuation of the a-share market is already at a relatively extreme position. the forward valuation of the csi 300 index is near the historical bottom by one standard deviation, and it has obvious investment attractiveness both horizontally and vertically. in terms of trading and behavior, the common bottom-biased characteristics in history have also appeared. the turnover rate of a-shares calculated by free float market value in the early stage is at a historical bottom level of about 1.5% (the turnover rate in the historical bottom period is about 1%-2%). in this context, the emergence of positive policy signals is expected to boost investor sentiment. after the sharp rise in the stock market on september 24th, there may be twists and turns in the short term, but the rebound is expected to continue. the market trend stabilization also needs to pay attention to the changes in the fundamental expectations of listed companies in the future.
institutions are optimistic about the big financial sector
founder securities pointed out that the series of policies announced at the state council information office press conference will help increase the investment attractiveness of listed companies and boost investor confidence. current securities firm holdings and valuations are at historical bottoms, and the valuation of the securities sector is expected to recover with the frequent issuance of favorable policies.
western securities said that this press conference is expected to bring more liquidity support to the market, thereby improving investors' risk appetite and promoting the smooth operation of the market. the deepening of capital market reform and high-quality development of the industry are expected to promote the fundamentals and valuation repair of the non-bank sector. at present, the valuation and holdings of the non-bank sector are at the bottom of the industry. it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities for sector repair under the improvement of market sentiment.
citic securities research report believes that for banks, the adjustment of existing mortgage loan interest rates has a negative impact on the pricing of bank assets, and at the same time, it is clear that the subsequent decline in lpr and deposit interest rates will have a neutral impact on bank interest margins. swap facilities increase the financing convenience of non-bank institutions and invest in the stock market in a targeted manner. re-lending tools help listed companies to repurchase and increase their holdings. index-weighted stocks with good subject qualifications and liquidity have more room for practical operation, and listed banks are expected to benefit directly.
(this article comes from china business network)
