multiple favorable factors stimulated the market, with more than 400 billion yuan of funds entering the market, and the shanghai stock exchange index saw its largest single-day increase in four years.
2024-09-24
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liu yanxin, reporter of chao news client
a long drought is followed by a downpour, which is one of the four great joys in life. today, the a-share market has welcomed such a happy event.
under the influence of important positive factors such as the speech of pan gongsheng, governor of the central bank, the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets rose sharply throughout the day, with all three major indexes rising by more than 4%. the shanghai composite index achieved the largest single-day increase since july 6, 2020. the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets today was 971.3 billion, an increase of 420.3 billion from the previous trading day. this also means that more than 400 billion of off-market funds entered the market to buy stocks today.
on the market, major financial stocks exploded across the board, with more than 10 stocks such as pacific securities, capital securities, hongye futures, and jiuding investment hitting the daily limit, and east fortune rising by more than 10%. liquor stocks rose sharply in the afternoon, huangtai liquor hit the daily limit, and kweichow moutai rose by more than 8%. steel stocks fluctuated and strengthened, with nearly 10 stocks such as zhongnan shares, new steel shares, anyang iron and steel, and bayi iron and steel hitting the daily limit. new energy track stocks rebounded, with defang nano, longpan technology, hongyuan green energy, and tcl zhonghuan hitting the daily limit. overall, more stocks rose than fell, with more than 5,100 stocks rising in the entire market. in terms of sectors, diversified financial, steel, securities, and liquor sectors led the gains, and there were no falling sectors. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 4.15%, the shenzhen component index rose 4.36%, and the chinext index rose 5.54%.
shanghai stock index k-line chart
chinext index trend chart
on the morning of september 24, the state council information office held a press conference. the speech by pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, contained a lot of policy information, which rekindled investors' hopes. it also confirmed what a private equity investor said: a-shares have been in a bear market for three years, and finally a big move has come. the bear market should end.
at the meeting, pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, announced three policies: first, reduce the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rate, and drive the market benchmark interest rate down. second, reduce the interest rate of existing mortgage loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio for mortgage loans. third, create new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market.
pan gongsheng introduced that the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points in the near future, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market. depending on the situation, the deposit reserve ratio will be further lowered at the end of the year. at the same time, the central bank's policy interest rate will be lowered, and the 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate will be lowered by 0.2 percentage points from the current 1.7% to 1.5%, guiding the loan market quotation rate and deposit interest rate to go down simultaneously.
in terms of mortgage loans, the interest rates of existing mortgage loans will be lowered and the minimum down payment ratio for mortgage loans will be unified. specifically, commercial banks will be guided to lower the interest rates of existing mortgage loans to near the interest rates of new mortgage loans, with an average drop of about 0.5 percentage points. the minimum down payment ratio for second mortgage loans at the national level will be lowered from 25% to 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for first and second mortgage loans will be unified.
in addition, new monetary policy tools will be created in the near future to support the stable development of the stock market. securities, funds, and insurance companies will be swapped to support qualified securities, funds, and insurance companies to obtain liquidity from the central bank through asset pledges, which will greatly improve the ability to obtain funds and increase stock holdings. special re-loans will be created to guide banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders to support the repurchase and increase of stock holdings.
wang bian, investment director of qianhai guoyuan fund, told chao news reporter that the market has welcomed multiple favorable policies today, but the two most important ones are: one is to reduce the expenditure burden of ordinary people who buy houses, and more importantly, to innovate the channels for funds to enter the market. the second is to provide low-interest loans to companies for repurchase and increase their own stock holdings. according to reports, pan gongsheng said that the first phase of the securities, funds and insurance companies swap facility will have a scale of 500 billion yuan, and the funds obtained can only be used to invest in the stock market, and the scale can be expanded in the future depending on the situation. "i told chairman wu qing (of the china securities regulatory commission) that as long as this matter is done well, we can get another 500 billion yuan in the future, or a third 500 billion yuan, and our (attitude) is open."
"both of these are unprecedented benefits. in the past, bank credit funds were strictly prohibited from entering the market. now that the policy direction has changed, it will naturally greatly boost investor confidence." wang bian said that the industry originally expected that after the decision-making level changed its mindset, it would hold a meeting in october to pass a resolution to invest more fiscal funds to save the economy, but the actual implementation may not be until next year. "finally, the financial system took action first this time and worked ahead of expectations. the a-share market really needs such enthusiasm."
wang bian believes that after three years of bear market, the a-share market has been in a negative cycle for too long and needs a policy opportunity to break it. he hopes that this time will come. however, how long the strong market can last depends on whether the real economy can pick up in the future.
lin yi, chief investment consultant of shanghai liduoxing, said that the central bank has created special bonds for stock repurchase and increase holdings to guide banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders to support the repurchase and increase of stock holdings. this is the first time since the stock market crash in 2015 that the relationship between bank funds and the stock market has been relaxed! "when people in the industry heard that these funds can only be used to buy stocks, they were moved to tears. in my 30 years of working in the industry, i have only heard that 'these funds are not allowed to flow into the stock market'." lin yi said. however, lin yi still does not dare to have too high expectations for the market outlook. "in the short term, it will rebound. pay attention to the highly elastic sectors such as finance, automobiles, and state-owned enterprise reforms."
how will a-shares perform in the future? in lin yi's opinion, there are three possibilities. first, there will be fiscal policy relay in the future, and the rise will be sustained, looking above 3,000 points. second, there is only today's monetary policy, then it is possible that today's rebound is almost in place, looking at 2,900 points. third, there will be economic data relay after the national day, and the rise will also continue.
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