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talking about stocks: a-shares have a high probability of establishing a market bottom with a large volume and a long rise

2024-09-24

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under the strong stimulation of many favorable policies such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, lowering interest rates, lowering the interest rates of existing mortgages, and promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, a-shares ushered in a long-awaited large-volume long-term rise on september 24, and the september call options of the shanghai stock exchange 50etf even saw a rare single-day increase of 239 times. various signs show that investor confidence has recovered rapidly, and the favorable policies have supported the market bottom of a-shares, and the stage bottom is likely to have been established.

on september 24, the three major a-share indices collectively surged by more than 4% with volume, 5,167 stocks rose, of which 98 stocks hit the daily limit, only 161 stocks were in the red, and 7 stocks hit the daily limit.

such a strong trend is due to the huge favorable policy combination launched by the regulatory authorities. among them, the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points in the near future, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market. lowering the central bank's policy interest rate is expected to reduce the market's capital cost. lowering the interest rate of existing mortgage loans and unifying the minimum down payment ratio for mortgage loans will be a huge boon to real estate and will help restore the valuation of real estate stocks in the secondary market.

in contrast, the creation of new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market is particularly noteworthy. the first is to create a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies. qualified securities, funds, and insurance companies can use their bonds, stock etfs, and csi 300 constituent stocks as collateral to exchange for highly liquid assets such as treasury bonds and central bank bills from the central bank. these assets can be more easily pledged in the secondary market for cash. the policy stipulates that the initial swap quota is 500 billion yuan, and this part of the funds can only be used to invest in the secondary market. investors can expect that 500 billion yuan of funds will directly enter the secondary market in the future.

the second is to create stock repurchase and increase holdings re-loans. if a listed company wants to repurchase stocks, or a major shareholder wants to increase holdings, but there is a funding gap, they can apply for a loan from a bank to repurchase or increase holdings. the central bank provides 300 billion yuan in re-loans for this purpose. this means that the amount of funds for listed companies to repurchase stocks and major shareholders to increase holdings will increase by 300 billion yuan, and this part of the funds will eventually become funds for purchasing stocks. moreover, intensive increases in holdings will also drive more funds to enter the market for increased holdings, and the actual scale of increased holdings and repurchases will be much larger than this.

in addition, policies will also promote medium- and long-term funds to enter the stock market. the main policy is to vigorously develop equity public funds, mainly etf funds. in fact, etf funds are the best channel for investors to participate in the a-share market. if more etf funds are issued in the future, investors will have more choices, and more long-term funds will enter the a-share market through this channel. this is a real long-term benefit to the a-share market.

six measures to promote mergers and acquisitions and restructuring are also about to be introduced, which is of great significance to the active merger and acquisition restructuring market. mergers and acquisitions and restructuring are one of the effective ways for listed companies to become bigger and stronger, and have positive significance for the high-quality development of listed companies and industrial transformation. through mergers and acquisitions and restructuring, it can also directly promote the improvement of the performance of a-share listed companies, reduce operating risks, and ultimately increase the investment value of listed companies.

as the stock market proverb says, a positive line changes the mood. the valuation of a-shares is already at a low point, and people are eager to see the market rise, but the market confidence is insufficient. the introduction of the policy package is just right and has a significant impact on boosting market confidence. judging from the market reaction, the long-term positive line of the three major indexes is an important sign of the rapid recovery of market confidence, and the market bottom of a-shares is likely to have been established.

beijing business daily commentator zhou kejing

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