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cailianshe news, september 24 (editor: shi zhengcheng)over the past week, the conflict between israel and hezbollah in lebanon has escalated rapidly. following the massive explosion of pagers and walkie-talkies that shocked the world last week, israel launched a large-scale air strike on lebanon on monday, killing and injuring thousands of people.

according to data released by lebanese authorities, monday's airstrikes killed nearly 500 people, including dozens of women and children, and injured more than 1,600.this is also considered the day with the highest death toll in the years of hostility between israel and lebanon since the full-scale military conflict between israel and lebanon in 2006.

(illustration of israel's air strikes on monday, source: al jazeera)

although the israeli army has advantages in intelligence and targeted strikes, many military analysts also pointed out thatonce israel launches a ground war in lebanon, the situation may be completely different。

israel may suffer heavy casualties

also in support of hamas,the israeli army and lebanese hezbollah actually fought a war in 2006.in the nearly one-month conflict, 121 israeli soldiers and more than 40 israeli civilians died, and the death toll on the lebanese side exceeded 1,000. although israel has stronger military strength, it is still stuck in a stalemate in front of hezbollah, which mainly fights guerrilla warfare. the conflict was eventually stopped by a resolution of the un security council.

daniel byman, an expert on hezbollah in lebanon and a senior fellow at the center for strategic and international studies in washington, bluntly stated:now (letting israeli troops into lebanon) is a bit like saying to the united states in 1980, "let's go back to vietnam."。

there is no doubt that hezbollah's military strength has increased rapidly over the past 18 years. according to various intelligence estimates, hezbollah had about 12,000 rockets and missiles during the 2006 conflict.as of october 7 last year, the organization's missile stockpile was around 150,000 missiles.

(israeli fighter jets intercepting hezbollah missiles)

this figure clearly shows that attacking hezbollah in lebanon, which has tens of thousands of soldiers, is obviously not the same as fighting hamas.

by comparison, hamas has about 4,000 short-range unguided rockets with a range of less than 100 kilometers, while hezbollah has a stockpile of closer to 40,000-80,000. in terms of medium-range rockets with a range of more than 100 kilometers, hamas has about 1,000 and hezbollah has 60,000-80,000. hezbollah also has 20,000-40,000 unguided ballistic missiles within a range of 200-300 kilometers.

at the same time,lebanon's hezbollah also participated in the syrian civil war. in addition to accumulating combat experience, it also ensured a channel for obtaining external military support through syria.。

asymmetric warfare

of course, hezbollah, which knows that it is not suitable to fight a direct war with israel, which has f-35 fighter jets and a multi-layered air defense system, is also well aware of the same "underground warfare" skills as hamas. like hamas, which delayed the idf in gaza for 11 months, hezbollah's core strategy is still to fight a protracted war with israel.

according to people familiar with the matter, hezbollah has accelerated its war preparations in recent months, expanding its tunnel network in the southern region and obtaining more weapons from iran. a former hezbollah officer also saidthe southern underground area is called "like a beehive"。

through relations with iran,hezbollah also has the "drone tactics" that are popular on the russian-ukrainian battlefield, and adding guidance kits to its existing rockets. in the past few months, hezbollah's upgraded drones have successfully destroyed radar surveillance balloons called "sky dew" and israel's anti-drone system "drone dome". israel also admitted that in last weekend's attack, hezbollah struck targets deep inside israel.

military analysts say that in the event of an all-out war, hezbollah would likely launch a swarm of missiles and drones to try to suppress or disable israel's air defenses, while striking military installations, ports and power grids. israeli officials expect that if a war gets to that point, hundreds of people could be killed.

retired israeli brigadier general assaf orion told the media that if a full-scale war breaks out, it will not be an easy task and israel will definitely suffer heavy losses.

intelligence also shows that hezbollah is upgrading its guerrilla warfare weapons.the individual anti-tank missile system, which performed well on the russian-ukrainian battlefield, has also appeared frequently in the exchanges of fire between hezbollah and israel since this year.it is reported that the "almas" anti-tank missiles in the hands of hezbollah are widely believed to be comparable to advanced anti-tank missiles of the same type, such as the american "javelin" anti-tank missiles in the hands of the ukrainian army.

("almas" missile launch system, source: alma research)

the conflict will continue to stalemate

precisely because of the above considerations, israel is launching fierce attacks while also loudly emphasizing that it "does not want to fight."

in a letter to the un security council on monday (september 23), israeli foreign minister katz stressed that'israel is not interested in all-out war', and called on the united nations to implement a 2006 resolution requiring hezbollah to withdraw from lebanon's south of the litani river. later this week, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu will also travel to new york to address the un general assembly.

that being said, as the gaza stalemate continues, the uninterrupted conflict between the two sides is likely to continue. according to statistics,since october 8 last year, hezbollah in lebanon has launched more than 8,800 rockets, missiles and drones at israel, and the israel defense forces have launched more than 8,000 strikes against lebanon through air strikes, drones, missiles and missiles during the same period.

as this article was published, al jazeera reported that reporters in southern lebanon were watching two israeli fighter jets flying low, looking for targets to attack, while a barrage of rockets took off, and air defense sirens sounded in northern israel.

israeli military sources said israel expects hezbollah to intensify its attacks in the coming days.