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the fed’s rate cut is not surprising, rmb liquidity is expected to increase, and chinese assets are beginning to “live”

2024-09-24

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the federal reserve held a monetary policy meeting these two days, and then there was news that the federal reserve officially announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut. although this is the first time that the federal reserve has announced a rate cut in four years, there have been many rumors in the outside world before that, suggesting that the federal reserve will inevitably cut interest rates this time. before the federal reserve announced the rate cut, other western allies of the united states had already taken the lead in cutting interest rates. it can be said that in the context of allies no longer playing with themselves, it is not surprising that the united states chose to compromise and finally announced a rate cut. it is undeniable that the us dollar is still an international currency until now, and the us dollar still plays a vital role in the world's economic trade. however, as the federal reserve has continued to raise interest rates, the us dollar has been frantically harvesting foreign assets around the world, resulting in the crazy depreciation of other countries' currencies, which has overdrawn the international credibility of the us dollar. if the federal reserve does not cut interest rates again, it will only make more countries determined to decouple from the us dollar.

in fact, the logic behind this is also easy to understand. the fed's interest rate hike means that the interest earned by saving the us dollar is higher. therefore, countries are thinking about exchanging their own currencies for us dollars to earn high interest. however, this will inevitably lead to a reduction in the domestic currency in a country's market, followed by the depreciation of the local currency, which will in turn lead to the depreciation of key assets, and the pressure on enterprises will double, which will affect all aspects of domestic economic development. look at the japanese yen that has been depreciating all the way in the past period of time. that is the most typical example of being acquired by the us dollar. now think about it, it is not ruled out that the united states wants to harvest japan one last time before announcing a rate cut.

the reason why the yen has depreciated so much is mainly due to the deep binding relationship between the yen and the us dollar. unlike the relationship between other national currencies and the us dollar, the yen is often called the "shadow currency" of the us dollar, because the influence of the united states on japan has almost penetrated into every aspect, and japan's economic policy trends are also controlled by the united states to varying degrees. this has also led to the united states' long-term control of the yen exchange rate, thereby affecting the entire asian region's finance, but this premise is that the yen can be favored in asia. after the asian financial crisis, the international community has completely recognized the true face of the collusion between the united states and japan, so asian countries have also kept a watchful eye on japan since then.

at present, many countries in the international community are advocating to bypass third-party currencies and conduct transactions in local currencies. to a certain extent, this is also one of the effective measures to avoid the us dollar economic crisis. now that the federal reserve has announced a rate cut, more us dollars will inevitably flow into the international market. according to relevant data statistics, almost every time the federal reserve announced a rate cut in history, it meant a recession in the us economy, suggesting a weakening trend of the us dollar.

in addition, as we just said, more and more countries are seeking to get rid of the us dollar. therefore, even if there are more us dollars circulating in the market now, it seems that it is difficult to be sought after as before. for us in china, the fed’s announcement of a rate cut is definitely good news, which means that more us dollars may be converted into rmb again, and then flow into the chinese market for investment, stimulating the development of china’s economy. as long as there is more rmb in the market, domestic assets may begin to "live" again, and then various social problems will improve. it will take some time for the chain reaction of the fed’s rate cut to appear, so let us wait and see.