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"russia is in a leading position in the reserves of various strategic raw materials such as uranium, titanium, and nickel. it is time to consider certain restrictions." on september 11, russian president vladimir putin publicly stated in a video conference. putin's remarks were interpreted as "russia is considering restricting the export of strategic resources such as uranium" to "counter" a series of sanctions launched by western countries against russia. the industry believes that once russia restricts the export of uranium and other raw materials, it will not only bring heavy damage to the united states and european countries that are heavily dependent on russian enriched uranium, but will also affect the global nuclear power industry.

according to the russian satellite news agency, russia has begun to plan to establish a raw materials alliance to regulate the mineral market. russian minister of natural resources kozlov said that russia has 55% of the world's diamond reserves, 46% of palladium reserves, and 23% of gold reserves. overall, there is potential to establish a raw materials alliance.

it is reported that russia is the world's fourth largest uranium producer, accounting for about 5% of the world's uranium mining, and has about 44% of the world's uranium enrichment capacity. russia is also the world's largest exporter of nuclear fuel and technology. rosatom is currently mining uranium in russia and kazakhstan, and has also been selling nuclear fuel and providing uranium enrichment services to the united states and european countries. in contrast, only a few nuclear fuel suppliers in western countries have uranium enrichment capabilities, including orano and european uranium enrichment company.

in addition, tenex, a subsidiary of the russian state atomic energy corporation, is the only company in the world that can commercially sell high-purity low-enriched uranium haleu, which can power a new generation of more efficient small modular reactors. bloomberg new energy finance pointed out that russia is currently the only source of haleu.

last year, russia accounted for 27% of the supply of enriched uranium for commercial nuclear reactors in the united states. citibank pointed out that russia is difficult to replace, and although western uranium enrichment companies plan to build additional enrichment capacity, it will take at least three years to complete.

“this is a warning to the west that the green transition requires rare mineral metals and nuclear power development requires uranium, and russia is the main supplier of these energy resources,” said alexandra prokopenko, a researcher at the carnegie russia eurasia center.

u.s. uranium mining stocks surged on news that russia may restrict the export of strategic resources such as uranium. meanwhile, the price of nickel on the london metal exchange also rose by 2.35% on september 11. more than one-fifth of the nickel in the london metal exchange's registered warehouses comes from russia, and this metal is mainly used in batteries and alloys.

"the market is still very tight," said colin hamilton, metals analyst at bmo capital markets.russia's potential restrictions on uranium exports will bring "pain" to the global nuclear power industry, especially the nuclear power industry in western countries.”

the financial times pointed out that any restrictions on the sale of enriched uranium by russia could affect the western nuclear power industry. currently, most european and american nuclear power plant operators have signed long-term uranium supply contracts with russia.

since the outbreak of the russian-ukrainian conflict, western countries led by the united states have continued to escalate sanctions against russia. initially, they targeted russian oil and coal, and then began to extend to natural gas and mineral metals. on august 11 this year, the u.s. "russian uranium import ban act" officially came into effect. according to the act, the united states prohibits the import of enriched uranium from russia, but does not include existing contracts signed between russia and u.s. utility companies, and establishes an exemption system.

it is worth noting that the us centrus energy company stated in a document submitted to the u.s. securities and exchange commission that it had submitted its first exemption application to the u.s. department of energy on may 27, namely to import russian enriched uranium in 2024 and 2025 for the delivery of contracted products to u.s. customers.

the industry believes that the us sanctions on russian uranium may be "much ado about nothing", but if russia takes measures to restrict uranium exports, the existing uranium supply contracts reached with the west may immediately become "invalid".

kazakhstan's state nuclear energy company has warned that western sanctions against russia, triggered by the russia-ukraine conflict, are affecting western utilities' access to uranium. "sanctions are creating obstacles for the west to obtain its own uranium supply," said merzhan yusupov, ceo of kazakhstan's state nuclear energy company.

it is understood that kazakhstan's uranium production accounts for 43% of the world's total. last year, 32% of the uranium produced by kazakhstan's national atomic energy corporation was sold to europe and 19% to the united states. rosatom holds shares in five of kazakhstan's 14 deposits. based on this, rosatom can get 20% of the production.

currently, kazakhstan's national atomic energy corporation is developing the second phase of the budenovekchi uranium mine, which is one of the world's largest known uranium mines, with a total reserve of more than 280,000 tons and an annual output of 2,081 tons, accounting for 4% of the world's total output. rosatom indirectly holds a 49% stake in the budenovekchi uranium mine through its subsidiary first uranium.

katie mallinson, partner at prism political risk management, said russia's increased stake in kazakhstan's uranium production increases the risk to western countries of maintaining uranium supplies in the long term.

original title: russia considers restricting the export of strategic raw materials such as uranium

text丨our reporter wang lin