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hong kong stock trends and analysis

us stocks had individual developments last friday, and the market fluctuated repeatedly. the dow jones industrial average hit a new closing high, while the s&p 500 and nasdaq closed lower. the us dollar performed well, the us 10-year bond yield rebounded to 3.74%, gold prices rose sharply, and oil prices fluctuated and softened. hong kong stock depositary receipts generally fell, and the market is expected to open lower in the early stage. the mainland stock market had individual developments last friday. the shanghai composite index fell first and then rebounded, closing up less than one point, and the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets remained light. hong kong stocks continued to break upward, and the index stabilized at 18,000 points, hitting a recent high, and overall trading remained active. the market expects that there will be more opportunities for interest rate cuts before the end of the year, and the strengthening of the rmb is also beneficial to the market atmosphere. the market risk appetite has rebounded, which will help the market further challenge the 18,500 point resistance, and the support below is at 17,800 points.

industry news

the people's bank of china announced earlier that new loans in the first eight months of this year amounted to rmb 14.43 trillion. based on this calculation, new loans in august amounted to about rmb 900 billion. by sector, household loans increased by rmb 1.44 trillion in the first eight months, of which short-term loans increased by rmb 132.4 billion and medium- and long-term loans increased by rmb 1.31 trillion; corporate loans increased by rmb 11.97 trillion, of which short-term loans increased by rmb 2.37 trillion, medium- and long-term loans increased by rmb 8.7 trillion, and bill financing increased by rmb 759.7 billion; non-banking financial institutions increased loans by rmb 459.1 billion. at the end of august, the balance of rmb loans was rmb 252.02 trillion, up 8.5% year-on-year. at the end of august, the balance of broad money (m2) was rmb 305.05 trillion, up 6.3% year-on-year. the balance of narrow money (m1) was rmb 63.02 trillion, down 7.3%. the balance of currency in circulation (m0) was rmb 11.95 trillion, up 12.2%. in the first eight months, rmb deposits increased by rmb 12.88 trillion. among them, household deposits increased by rmb 9.65 trillion, and non-financial corporate deposits decreased by rmb 2.88 trillion. in the first eight months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was rmb 21.9 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of rmb 3.32 trillion. among them, rmb loans issued to the real economy increased by rmb 13.42 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of rmb 3.57 trillion; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy decreased by rmb 158.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of rmb 80 billion. the people's bank of china said that it will adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance to create a good monetary and financial environment for the economic recovery. monetary policy will be more flexible, moderate, precise and effective, increase regulatory efforts, accelerate the implementation of financial policy measures that have been issued, and start to introduce some incremental policy measures to further reduce corporate financing and resident credit costs and maintain reasonable liquidity. at the same time, maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate recovery in prices will be an important consideration in grasping monetary policy, and more targeted to meet reasonable consumer financing needs. we will continue to strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination, support proactive fiscal policies to achieve better results, focus on expanding domestic demand, promote both consumption and investment, pay more attention to consumption, eliminate backward production capacity, promote industrial upgrading, and support the dynamic balance between total supply and total demand at a higher level. as the united states enters a cycle of interest rate cuts, the rmb exchange rate should be better supported, and the people's bank of china will have more room to implement loose monetary policy to promote the recovery of the macro economy.

(the author is a licensed person of the securities and futures commission. neither the author nor any related person holds the above-mentioned shares.)

daily hong kong stock analysis honghui asset management investment director guo jiayao cfa

date: saturday, september 21, 2024