news

return to the "6 era"?

today, the world's attention is focused on the rmb.

1. the offshore rmb closed at 7.04 last friday and could break 7.0 at any time. if it breaks through this level, speculators will flock in and the rmb may passively appreciate significantly - the people's bank of china obviously does not want to see this. since the rise does not conform to the current environment (rmb stability helps boost exports), not many people were bullish in the past, but if the integer points are broken, the market psychological factors will undergo a major change.

2. the exchange rate midpoint at 9:15 today is the focus of people's analysis. investors will use this to judge what signal the central bank is sending:

but past experience tells us that the integer mark is not the "defense line" that the central bank must strictly guard.

3. as the chinese central bank did not follow the fed in cutting interest rates, the rmb exchange rate has reached its strongest level in 16 months, causing exporters to accelerate the reduction of us dollar holdings (in august, banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales on behalf of customers turned into a surplus for the first time in more than a year），thisfurther pushing up the rmb - a cycle has been formed that the central bank may need to break. next, the central bank may have to make a big move, at least the foreign exchange risk reserve policy may have to retire after its success.

4. the trend of the us dollar index is also a key factor for the rmb. the index is currently at 100. if it falls below this level, the appreciation pressure on the rmb will continue. today's risk point is from 20:00 to 21:45 in the evening. there will be not only important data, but also speeches by fed officials. any unexpected event may cause a huge upheaval.