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[bob schwartz, senior economist at oxford economics, said in an interview with yicai global that the fed's september decision was a preemptive one to increase the likelihood of a soft landing. judging from the dot plot, the fed adjusted the ultimate target of the neutral interest rate to around 3%, but there are still large differences among policymakers, depending on their views on economic data.]

[u.s. treasury yields stabilized and rebounded. according to data from the chicago mercantile exchange's fedwatch tool, the probability that the federal reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in november is about 60%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is about 40%.]

after the federal reserve took the first step in the interest rate cut cycle, as risk appetite recovered, the market showed a general rise, global funds returned, and the u.s. stock market once again launched a new round of charge towards the historical high. now, the three major stock indexes have recovered the losses caused by the short-term turmoil at the beginning of the month. after digesting the positive monetary policy, whether the market can break the september curse or face profit-taking pressure may depend on the game between economic indicators and subsequent policy paths.

the fed reserves the right to choose subsequent policies

after four years, the federal reserve has started a new round of easing cycle. as inflation gradually approaches the target, the federal open market committee (fomc) now pays more attention to the labor market situation, hoping that the dual tasks of full employment and price stability will be more balanced.

since the second half of the year, job supply and demand tensions have cooled, with fewer corporate hiring and job vacancies, raising concerns about a possible hard landing. fed chairman powell said at a press conference that labor market conditions have softened and job creation has slowed in recent months. he stressed the importance of preemptively protecting the economy, saying that "the time to support the labor market is when it is strong, not when to start laying off workers."