this is the biggest "gray rhino" factor on the lebanese-israeli front
2024-09-22
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recently, the conflict between lebanon and israel has continued to escalate.
on the evening of september 21, local time, israeli warplanes launched at least two rounds of large-scale air strikes on southern lebanon.
israeli media reported that this was the largest air strike launched by the israeli army on targets in lebanon since the conflict between israel and hezbollah in the temporary border area between israel and lebanon broke out in october last year.
screenshot of the report from türkiye's anadolu agency
qin tian, deputy director of the middle east institute of the china institute of contemporary international relations, analyzed in an interview with the cctv global information radio reporter that both lebanon and israel may further expand their military operations.
in the past year, israel has carried out three targeted offensive operations in the southern suburbs of beirut, each of which was an escalation of the situation. however, the past operations have maintained a process of escalation, de-escalation, and crisis management by both sides, without a sustained escalation.
a few days ago, a pager explosion occurred in lebanon, causing a large number of casualties. together with this targeted elimination operation, the lebanon-israel conflict is on the verge of breaking out.
the next step for israel is to decide whether to launch ground combat or ground clearing operations against hezbollah in lebanon. this is the biggest "gray rhino" factor on the future lebanon-israel front.
screenshot of the guardian report
israel is still continuing its military operations in the gaza strip of palestine, and the humanitarian situation there continues to deteriorate.
the gaza strip health department issued a statement on september 21 saying that the israeli army bombed a school in gaza city in the northern gaza strip that day, killing at least 22 people and injuring 30.
at the same time, the negotiations between the palestinian and israeli parties on ceasefire and release of detained persons have not made significant progress, which has aroused the dissatisfaction of the israeli people. in recent days, large-scale demonstrations have broken out in israel.
screenshot of qatar al jazeera report
turkish president erdogan delivered a speech on september 21 before traveling to new york, the united states to attend the 79th united nations general assembly, urging the international community to take action to curb israel's military operations in gaza and lebanon.
qin tian further analyzed that the spillover effects of the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict are becoming increasingly evident in the region and even the world.
in the approximately 30 years from the end of the cold war to the outbreak of the current israeli-palestinian conflict, the impact of the israeli-palestinian conflict was relatively small, and it was mainly a sub-regional conflict.
however, the impact of this palestinian-israeli conflict is very large. it has not only become a regional conflict, but also has led to the emergence of many other fronts, affecting the entire middle east region.
the current israeli-palestinian conflict has even had a global impact to a large extent, including in the economic field. the houthi armed forces' attack on red sea shipping has changed the global logistics and shipping pattern to a certain extent.
from the perspective of the global pattern, the current israeli-palestinian conflict has also created a polarized phenomenon: the united states and the west stubbornly support israel, while a number of countries, especially those in the global south, support palestine. this has led to a divergence in the positions of the united states, the west and the global south on the israeli-palestinian issue.
source: global information radio "live world"
reporter: yang zhuoying
edited by lin weishangjuan
reviewed by li peng and liu yiyao
