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this is a photo taken on september 18 in baalbek, lebanon, of a scene after a communications device exploded. xinhua news agency

on september 18, in beirut, lebanon, people attended the funeral of the victims of the paging device explosion. xinhua news agency

"equipment that has been eliminated by the times" has reappeared in the public eye. on september 17, local time, "bb machines (pagers)" exploded in many places in lebanon. the next day, walkie-talkies used by hezbollah in lebanon also exploded in many places in lebanon. on the 19th, local time, lebanese minister of public health firas abyad said that the explosions of communication equipment that occurred in many places in lebanon on the 17th and 18th had caused 37 deaths and 2,931 injuries. in a letter sent to the un security council, the lebanese permanent mission to the united nations stated that the lebanese government's preliminary investigation found that the communication equipment had been implanted with explosives before arriving in the country, and someone sent electronic information to the equipment to detonate it.

it is reported that hezbollah in lebanon ordered a batch of pagers from a taiwanese company. the company said that it did not participate in the design or production of the pagers in question, but only authorized a hungarian company to produce them under its own brand. a hungarian government spokesman said that the pagers "have never appeared in hungary." as for the walkie-talkies in question that were said to be "made in japan," the relevant japanese companies also responded that the products had been discontinued long ago.

the book "unrestricted warfare" points out that "unrestricted warfare" refers to fighting or war beyond "boundaries (and limits)". for "unrestricted warfare", there is no distinction between battlefields and non-battlefields, and there is no need to rely on conventional or unconventional weapons. sometimes the opponent cannot be seen or found at all. in lebanon, the pandora's box of "unrestricted warfare" has been opened. on september 19, many experts and scholars analyzed to nandu and n video reporters that if the lebanese-israeli conflict is allowed to continue to escalate, the conflict may evolve into a full-scale crisis. at the same time, a terrorism based on invading the supply chain is spreading to the world.

　serial bombings are physical attacks carried out by manipulating offline devices

"the communications equipment bombings launched by israel violated all legal restrictions and red lines...and were an unprecedented massacre." on the afternoon of september 19th local time, hezbollah leader nasrallah delivered a speech after two communications equipment bombings.

let's go back to a few days ago. on the afternoon of the 17th, "bb machine (pager)" explosions occurred in many places in lebanon. pagers, a "device eliminated by the times", have once again entered the public eye.

the surveillance footage disclosed by foreign media showed that when a man was paying in a small supermarket, a pager next to the cash register suddenly exploded. some people heard the pager ringing and raised it to check, and the explosion occurred at this time.

the series of explosions began at 15:30 local time on the 17th and lasted for about an hour. the locations were mainly concentrated in the southern suburbs of beirut, the capital of lebanon, southern lebanon, and the bekaa valley in eastern lebanon. it is reported that the son of a hezbollah member of the lebanese parliament was also killed in the explosion.

however, just one day later, walkie-talkies used by hezbollah also exploded in many places in lebanon. although the explosions were suspected to target hezbollah members, many of the casualties were civilians, including children.

according to lebanese official media reports, most of the explosions on the 18th were handheld walkie-talkies, but also a few solar-powered devices and car radios. the explosion sites overlapped with the sites of the 17th explosion, and one of the explosions occurred at a funeral for the victims of the 17th explosion.

on the 19th, lebanese minister of public health firas abyad said at a press conference that the two communication equipment explosions had killed 37 people and injured 2,931 people.

in his speech, hezbollah leader hassan nasrallah made it clear that "israel has detonated thousands of communications equipment in an attempt to kill thousands of lebanese people, which has crossed all red lines and is tantamount to a declaration of war."

the conflict between lebanon and israel has long been deeply rooted.

the southern part of lebanon borders israel. in 1978, israel invaded lebanon. in 1982, israel invaded lebanon again, besieging the capital beirut and controlling the southern part of lebanon for a long time. in 2006, the israeli army clashed with the lebanese hezbollah in southern lebanon again.

since the outbreak of a new round of israeli-palestinian conflict in october last year, hezbollah in lebanon has frequently attacked military targets in northern israel to support the palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas), and the israeli army has responded with air strikes and artillery bombardments. on july 30 this year, hezbollah's senior military commander shukur was killed when the israeli army attacked the southern suburbs of beirut, the capital of lebanon. subsequently, the two sides frequently attacked each other using missiles and drones, and exchanged fire almost every day.

according to statistics, since october last year, the border fighting between lebanon and israel has resulted in 614 deaths on the lebanese side, including 138 civilians, while at least 24 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed on the israeli side.

as for the pager explosion that occurred on september 17 this year, the lebanese ministry of foreign affairs characterized it as an "israeli cyber attack."

sun degang, director of the middle east research center at fudan university, told nandu reporters that the attack on hezbollah's electronic equipment "can be said to be a new tactic, intended to turn hezbollah from a strategic offensive to a strategic defensive, making it impossible for hezbollah to launch an effective attack on northern israel in the short term."

military expert song zhongping also explained to nandu reporters that using high-tech means to carry out terrorist attacks and achieving remote-controlled attacks through network technology and modified equipment has become one of the main means of asymmetric warfare, adding more uncertainties to the form of warfare.

shu meng, assistant researcher at the institute of middle east studies of shanghai international studies university, said that in the explosion, explosives were placed in civilian facilities, and the explosion caused some civilian casualties, and the means lacked basic moral sense. in addition, the attackers carried out physical attacks by manipulating offline devices, which shows that cyber attacks are now very serious and have gone beyond simple information theft and system paralysis.

according to information from various sources, the explosion was not very powerful and mainly affected the person carrying the pager and people who were close to it. most of the injured suffered injuries to the face, eyes and limbs. in addition, the explosion did not cause major damage to the building or cause a serious fire.

song zhongping believes that the explosion not only caused significant property losses and psychological shock to hezbollah in lebanon, but also opened up non-war military operations to a new battlefield.

"unrestricted warfare" the weaponization of communication equipment will become a blind spot in global security governance

to avoid being monitored and tracked, especially after several commanders were "targeted and eliminated" by the israeli army, hezbollah members in lebanon generally gave up smartphones and turned to pagers and walkie-talkies with lower technology content. hezbollah distributed pagers to some members of its organizations, including armed personnel and medical personnel who provided relief to the needy. at least two medical staff were killed in the pager explosion on the 17th. a senior lebanese security official who did not want to be named said that hezbollah in lebanon ordered 5,000 pagers from a taiwanese company called golden apollo. several other sources said that the pagers were delivered earlier this year.

golden apollo responded that the model of the pager involved was ar-924, and the company authorized a company called bac to produce it under its own brand. golden apollo did not participate in the design or production, and it was also a victim. taiwan's economic department also responded that from january to august this year, golden apollo exported more than 40,000 sets of pagers, mainly to european and american countries. the relevant products did not explode, and there was no record of direct export to lebanon. golden apollo explained that the pager involved was produced and sold by bac, a company located in budapest, the capital of hungary. some foreign experts believe that the party involved in the sale of the pagers may be an "intelligence cover" set up by israeli intelligence agencies for the attack. however, a hungarian government spokesman said that bac was only an intermediary agent and that the batch of pagers "never appeared in hungary at all."

the senior lebanese security official said that the israeli intelligence and secret service (mossad) had modified the pagers during production, implanting explosives that could receive codes into the pagers, which were "very difficult to detect" with scanners or other equipment. another source said that the explosives hidden in these pagers were up to 3 grams, and hezbollah in lebanon had not noticed it for several months.

"the explosion did not involve any revolutionary technology. the reason it caused concern was that the explosives were placed in civilian equipment and the targets were as many as thousands of people, regardless of occasion or location."

shu meng believes that the explosion has opened a new pandora's box. "people are beginning to panic about supply chain security. countries will tend to create closed supply chains and build higher security walls in the production of sensitive items. this has a far-reaching potential impact on the global supply chain system."

on the 17th local time, only the pagers that were turned on and received messages exploded. at that time, these pagers received a message that seemed to come from the leadership of hezbollah in lebanon, and exploded after ringing for a few seconds. after the explosion on the 18th, some media saw in the southern suburbs of beirut, the capital of lebanon, that members of hezbollah in lebanon hurriedly checked the walkie-talkies that did not explode, took out the batteries, and threw the walkie-talkies into a tin bucket. the photo shows that the walkie-talkies were printed with a label with the words "icom" and "made in japan". it has been confirmed that the equipment involved is an icom v82 walkie-talkie. the japanese company icom responded that the walkie-talkies in question were manufactured and exported to the middle east and other places between 2004 and october 2014, and then discontinued production and no longer shipped. the batteries used in this model of walkie-talkies have also been discontinued to this day. in addition, the walkie-talkies that appeared in the report did not have a corporate laser holographic anti-counterfeiting mark, "so it is impossible to confirm whether the product was shipped by the company." a lebanese security official revealed that this batch of walkie-talkies, like the pagers that exploded on the 17th, were purchased five months ago.

"in the context of the fourth industrial revolution, high-tech products such as electronic equipment and drones will become important factors affecting regional situations." sun degang analyzed that in this incident, the attackers used high-tech means to carry out precise military strikes on specific targets, indicating that military means are becoming increasingly non-traditional. in his view, on the one hand, asymmetric strikes have shifted from traditional suicide attacks to remote detonation using electronic equipment and other technical means; on the other hand, there are currently many loopholes in the field of technology, and the weaponization of communication equipment will become a blind spot in global security governance.

　all parties expressed their views on security breaches, strong condemnation, and escalation of the situation

an unnamed hezbollah official said the attack exposed hezbollah's "biggest security loophole" since the outbreak of a new round of israeli-palestinian conflict. "this is probably hezbollah's biggest counterintelligence failure in decades," said jonathan panikoff, who served as deputy intelligence officer for middle east affairs at the u.s. intelligence agency. "this incident shows that not only is there a security loophole in hezbollah's internal communication system, but the intelligence system has also been infiltrated." shu meng believes that hezbollah needs to adopt other reliable internal communication methods to ensure the confidentiality and security of its operations. "however, a rush to change internal communication methods in the short term may lead to the leakage of more sensitive information and significantly reduce the efficiency of communication within the organization."

after the explosion, hezbollah in lebanon pointed the finger at israel for the incident, saying that israel would be "justly punished." just like when hezbollah's senior military commander shukur was killed in an attack in lebanon in july, israel did not respond. edward snowden, a former nsa defense contractor employee who once exposed the us's large-scale secret surveillance project "prism," wrote on a social media platform that israel's actions on the 17th were "reckless" and that the targets of the explosion included "countless people driving and shopping... this is no different from terrorism."

the iranian embassy in lebanon stated that iranian ambassador to lebanon mujtaba amani was "slightly injured" in the pager explosion on the 17th. on the same day, iranian foreign minister sayyed abbas araghchi "strongly condemned" the explosion in a phone call with lebanese foreign minister abdullah bou habib, emphasizing that iran stands in solidarity with the lebanese government and the entire country. hamas, which is a member of the "resistance axis" with iran, said in a statement that the explosion "escalated" the situation and would only lead to israel's "failure."

as an ally of israel, the united states said it "did not know who was responsible for the incident". matthew miller, a spokesman for the us state department, said the us was not involved in the explosion and that the tension between israel and lebanon should be resolved through diplomatic means. in addition, the us urged iran not to use any incident to exacerbate the instability of the situation. however, us media disclosed that the meeting of senior cabinet members and security department heads chaired by israeli prime minister netanyahu approved the action. us media quoted multiple sources as saying that the conspiracy had obviously been planned for several months. a us official revealed that before taking action on the 17th, israel informed the us that it would "do something" in lebanon, but did not inform it of the detailed plan.

the united nations special coordinator for lebanon, janine hennis-plasschaert, also condemned the pager explosion in a statement, saying it marked an "extremely worrying escalation of the conflict."

on the 18th, un high commissioner for human rights turk publicly stated that the recent explosion of communications equipment in lebanon was shocking and the impact on civilians was unacceptable. foreign ministry spokesman lin jian also said on the 19th that china is highly concerned about the relevant incidents, opposes any violation of lebanon's sovereignty and security, and is concerned about the possible escalation of tensions in the region. china calls on all parties concerned to effectively maintain peace and stability in the middle east.

the situation is foggy. lebanon is likely to become the "eye of the storm" of proxy war

the lebanese government has stated that it is unwilling to "take sides" between palestine and israel. in 2022, lebanon also signed a maritime border demarcation agreement with israel. "however, many lebanese civilians, including children, were killed and injured in this incident. the conflict between hezbollah and israel in lebanon may expand into a conflict between the entire country of lebanon and israel." sun degang believes that this incident has a far-reaching impact on lebanon's political situation and society.

after the pager bombing, senior hezbollah official hussein khalil said: "this attack is not aimed at one, two or three people, this time the target is the entire country."

song zhongping pointed out that hezbollah in lebanon must find out "which link went wrong" and "whether there is a traitor" in order to stabilize the domestic political situation and avoid rash retaliation to avoid causing greater losses.

after the explosion, israeli prime minister netanyahu reiterated on the 18th that israel will definitely allow people evacuated from the northern part of the country due to the security situation to return home. on the same day, galant said that after fighting in the gaza strip for several months, the israeli army's focus has shifted to the north, and the war the israeli army is engaged in is entering a new phase. in addition, he did not mention the explosion in lebanon. according to informed officials, the israeli army allocated more troops to the northern border with lebanon on the 18th.

the middle east is rife with war, and the spillover effects of a new round of israeli-palestinian conflict are accelerating. in july, hamas leader haniyeh was killed in an attack in iran, adding fuel to the fire of the turbulent middle east situation. sun degang pointed out that members of the "resistance axis" are trying to find a new battlefield in southern lebanon to launch a war of attrition against israel. "if the israeli-lebanese conflict is allowed to continue to escalate, the conflict may evolve into a full-scale crisis, and lebanon is likely to become the 'eye of the storm' of the proxy war."

song zhongping analyzed that the haniya attack has not been resolved. like hezbollah, iran is also facing a huge internal risk of being infiltrated by external forces, but iran currently does not have the ability to launch large-scale military operations. shu meng also believes that due to the gap in strength between the two sides, lebanon's countermeasures against israel are "relatively limited and restrained."

as the prospects for ceasefire negotiations remain uncertain, on september 18, the un general assembly passed a resolution with an overwhelming majority, calling on israel to end its illegal occupation of palestinian territory within the next 12 months.

in a speech on the 19th, nasrallah, leader of lebanon's hezbollah, stressed that hezbollah will not stop its military operations until the israeli-palestinian conflict stops.

however, in shu meng's opinion, the extent of hezbollah's possible retaliation is still unclear, and there are strong voices in israel calling for tough measures against hezbollah. the current situation of the lebanon-israel conflict is still full of uncertainty.