the middle east must avoid the emergence of a new "eye of the storm"
2024-09-21
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zou zhiqiang
the large-scale explosions of communication equipment such as pagers and walkie-talkies in lebanon are exacerbating the international community's concerns about the further deterioration of the situation in the middle east. israel has not yet made any comments on this, but hezbollah in lebanon believes that this is israel's doing and accuses israel of launching a "technological war." for a time, the border between israel and lebanon was tense, and the risk of a full-scale war between israel and hezbollah in lebanon "seemed closer than ever before."
the confrontation between israel and hezbollah in lebanon has lasted for more than 40 years, and the contradictions between the two sides are deep-rooted. since the outbreak of a new round of palestinian-israeli conflict on october 7 last year, there have been small-scale conflicts in the border area between israel and lebanon, and since june this year, there have been several risks of full-scale conflicts. the explosion of this communication equipment may lead to further intensification of the conflict between israel and lebanon, bringing new uncertainties to the security situation in the middle east.
first, it casts a bigger shadow on the already difficult israeli-palestinian peace talks, making the prospects of the talks even more uncertain. the new round of israeli-palestinian conflict has lasted for nearly a year, causing heavy casualties and humanitarian disasters. a ceasefire and an end to the war have always been the general consensus and eager expectation of the international community. despite the vigorous promotion and active mediation of the international community, the israeli-palestinian peace talks have always been stuck in a dilemma and difficult to make breakthrough progress. the differences between israel and hamas in palestine are difficult to bridge, especially israel's tough attitude, insisting on releasing all hostages, completely eliminating hamas, and controlling the philadelphia corridor, which is considered by hamas to lack sincerity and willingness to compromise in peace talks. the explosion of the communication equipment increased the possibility of a full-scale war between lebanon and israel. one of its possible collateral consequences is that the gaza conflict will be marginalized to a certain extent or at least for a period of time, further undermining the willingness and confidence of the relevant parties to promote peace talks, making the resolution of the israeli-palestinian issue more difficult.
secondly, it shows that the palestinian-israeli conflict continues to show a spillover trend, and the lebanon-israel conflict may become another "eye of the storm" in the middle east besides the gaza conflict. some western media have noticed that just as a large-scale explosion of communication equipment occurred in lebanon, israeli defense minister galant announced that the war has entered a new stage and the military focus will shift to the northern front. this statement is interpreted as israel is ready for a full-scale war with hezbollah in lebanon. the reaction and subsequent retaliation of hezbollah in lebanon will also affect the direction of the conflict. under highly tense circumstances, it is particularly easy to cause misjudgment and unexpected escalation of the conflict. once a full-scale war breaks out between lebanon and israel, it will mean a new major escalation of the conflict in the middle east, which will not only cause heavy losses to the warring parties and cause a new humanitarian crisis, but will also lead to an intensification of the camp confrontation between the middle east "resistance axis" and israel. although the "resistance axis" led by iran is at a disadvantage in strength, the successive assassinations, attacks and military operations have made the situation in the middle east more fragile. the houthi armed forces in yemen, the iraqi shiite militias and iran may all increase the intensity of their retaliatory attacks on israel. if israel comes under more attacks, the united states may be further involved in regional conflicts and games. in that case, the camp confrontation in the middle east will inevitably face a new round of escalation, leading to a more serious geopolitical crisis.
furthermore, the explosion of communications equipment also reflects from a technical perspective that the weaponization of civilian equipment and the trend of "unrestricted warfare" are having serious negative impacts at the regional and global levels. this attack method weaponizes everyday civilian items such as pagers and walkie-talkies, which is likely to cause wider concerns and even panic. in the current situation of constant conflict in the middle east, this has greatly exceeded some people's imagination of conflict scenes, thus causing shock. if similar attack methods are used more frequently in the future, it will not only have a strong impact on people's security perception and regional situation, but may also have a profound impact on the security and reconstruction of the global industrial chain and supply chain, bringing unpredictable security, economic and political impacts.
in short, the large-scale explosion of communication equipment in lebanon has led to a new risk of a sharp escalation of the situation in the middle east, brought new resistance to the difficult israeli-palestinian peace talks, and also reflected that the negative impact and spillover effects of the israeli-palestinian conflict, the root cause of the middle east, are still expanding. the international community has further realized that as long as the israeli-palestinian conflict does not end, the situation in the middle east will be difficult to truly get rid of the risk of spiraling downward. faced with the renewed concerns about the escalation of the situation in the middle east, the un security council plans to hold an emergency meeting on the afternoon of the 20th local time on the explosion of communication equipment in lebanon to discuss countermeasures. in any case, the current priority is not to allow the israeli-lebanese conflict to continue to escalate or even turn into a full-scale war. the international community needs to make greater efforts to urge relevant parties to exercise restraint and avoid misjudgment. all parties inside and outside the region should jointly exert their influence to cool down the situation, avoid creating new obstacles to the israeli-palestinian peace talks or creating a new "eye of the storm" for regional tensions, and promote progress in the peace talks as soon as possible to achieve a ceasefire and stop the war, and promote peace and stability in the middle east. (the author is a researcher at the center for middle east studies of fudan university)▲# hundreds of reviews#
