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on september 20, the rmb exchange rate against the us dollar continued to rebound. the onshore rmb exchange rate against the us dollar recovered the 7.05 yuan mark during the session, and the offshore rmb exchange rate against the us dollar recovered the 7.04 yuan mark during the session. the highest intraday rebounds were more than 200 basis points and 300 basis points respectively. why did the rmb exchange rate rise so much? what will be the subsequent trend?

continuous rebound

the onshore and offshore rmb exchange rates against the u.s. dollar hit new interim highs.wind data showed that as of 16:30, the onshore rmb exchange rate against the us dollar was 7.0552 yuan, up 108 basis points from the previous closing price, and the highest intraday price was 7.0420 yuan, a new high since june 2023. the offshore rmb exchange rate against the us dollar was 7.0533 yuan, up 177 basis points from the previous closing price, and the highest intraday price was 7.0388 yuan, also a new high since june 2023.

in addition, data from the foreign exchange trading center showed that on september 20, the central parity rate of the rmb against the u.s. dollar was 7.0644 yuan, up 339 basis points, the highest since june 2023.this week, the rmb central parity rate against the u.s. dollar has increased by 386 basis points.

it is worth mentioning that the appreciation of the rmb exchange rate on the 20th was achieved under the background of the rise of the us dollar index. wind data showed that as of 16:30, the us dollar index was at 100.75 points, a single-day rebound of 0.11%.

foreign exchange traders said that the federal reserve's interest rate cut cycle has stimulated customers' sentiment to convert foreign exchange into rmb, and the trend will still tend to fluctuate in both directions in the future, but the exchange rate elasticity is expected to increase.

in the first half of this year, the rmb exchange rate was relatively weak, but it started to rise rapidly in august. since september, as the fed's expectations of a rate cut have increased, the rmb exchange rate has gradually risen. after the fed announced a rate cut on september 19, the rmb exchange rate soared.

approaching the 7 yuan mark

regarding the future trend of the rmb exchange rate, experts said that as the federal reserve gradually cuts interest rates,the pressure of rmb exchange rate depreciation will be further reduced, and it will show a two-way fluctuation trend.。

wen bin, chief economist of minsheng bank, said that the trend of rmb exchange rate has not shown obvious regularity. recently, the fed cut interest rates, narrowed the interest rate gap between china and the united states, and coupled with the reverse liquidation of yen carry trades, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has increased, and the rmb exchange rate has appreciated significantly. he believes that as the fed gradually cuts interest rates, the pressure on rmb exchange rate depreciation will be further reduced. this year, the rmb exchange rate against the us dollar will fluctuate in both directions within the range of 7 yuan to 7.2 yuan for most of the time, and it is not ruled out that it will rise above 7 yuan at the end of this year or early next year.

citic securities research report predicts that in the future, the centralized settlement of foreign exchange by export enterprises may increase short-term exchange rate fluctuations, and the rmb exchange rate may approach 7.0 yuan. the probability of a trend breakout of 7.0 yuan this year is not high. "first, although the fed has cut interest rates by a large margin this time, the subsequent path it has given is flexible and stable. second, the domestic economy still has the problem of insufficient effective demand in the short term. third, there may be certain risks in both rapid appreciation and depreciation," the research report wrote.

a relevant person in charge of the state administration of foreign exchange said recently that my country's foreign exchange market will continue to maintain a stable operation in the future. from an internal perspective, the positive factors and favorable conditions in my country's economic operation continue to accumulate, and the upward trend of the economy will continue to consolidate and strengthen. at the same time, the development and reform of my country's foreign exchange market continues to advance, and the inherent resilience of the market is improved, which will continue to play a positive role in stabilizing market expectations and transactions. from an external perspective, as the monetary policies of developed economies such as europe and the united states enter a cycle of interest rate cuts, the international financial market environment is expected to improve further.