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reversal, reversal, and reversal again, the market trend this morning was unexpected.

after the federal reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, the three major a-share indices opened slightly higher in the morning, and then continued to fall. the shanghai composite index fell below 2,700 points at one point, reaching a low of 2,697.78 points.around 9:53, the three major stock indexes rose collectively, with the shanghai composite index rising as high as 1.1% and the shenzhen component index rising as high as over 2%. around 10:30, the indices fell collectively.as of the morning close, the shanghai composite index rose 0.59%, the shenzhen component index rose 1.25%, and the chinext index rose 0.99%. the market turnover was 426.3 billion yuan, an increase of 133.5 billion yuan from yesterday morning.

currently, there are two focuses in the market: one is the lpr quotation tomorrow morning (september 20), and the other is the expectation of a reduction in the interest rates of existing mortgage loans.

liquor sector rebounds

after continuous adjustments, the liquor sector rebounded this morning, with huangtai liquor, jiugui liquor, shede liquor and other stocks leading the gains. yanshi shares hit the daily limit, ushering in a "ground-to-sky board". kweichow moutai bottomed out and rose, rising 1.22% in the morning and hitting an intraday low of 1,245.83 yuan.

the liquor sector has continued to adjust recently, mainly due to market concerns about a sluggish mid-autumn festival peak season.the latest institutional survey shows that this mid-autumn festival sales volume has declined year-on-year, with anhui, sichuan, jiangsu, henan and other places reporting a sales decline ranging from 10% to 30%, and channel inventory slightly increasing by 0.5 to 1 month compared to the end of the second quarter.

however, the liquor market still has bright spots. huachuang securities said that the prices of leading brands in various price bands are relatively stable. the core is that leading brands have a relatively strong sense of price maintenance, and the price control toolbox is more effective, and the channel monitoring ability has been improved. combined with channel feedback, the price of feitian original box has slightly dropped to 2,500 yuan, and the price of loose bottles has remained stable at 2,350-2,400 yuan. the wholesale price of puwu in the thousand-yuan price band is stable at 930-940 yuan, and the wholesale price of gaoda guojiao remains at around 870 yuan. the wholesale price of jiannanchun crystal sword, a sub-high-end leader, remains at around 400 yuan, and the wholesale price of fenjiu qing 20 remains at around 360 yuan.

some industry insiders also analyzed that the feedback during this mid-autumn festival peak season was relatively flat. this situation may improve to some extent after the mid-autumn festival and before national day.the key is that the interval between the two peak seasons of mid-autumn festival and national day is relatively long, which provides a certain window period for the increase in the frequency of returning home and banquets. the terminals are expected to replenish stocks before national day, and the inventory may be digested to a certain extent.

the big rebound of liquor sector also led to consumer stocks collectively strengthened.the dairy, beer, and community group buying sectors rose sharply, and stocks such as pinwo food, huifa food, and qianwei yangchu hit their daily limit.

regarding the major sub-sectors of consumer stocks, debon securities said that in the beer sector, it is expected that the overall upgrading and efficiency improvement of the industry will remain unchanged throughout the year. the continued recovery of consumption scenarios such as catering and nightclubs is expected to accelerate the development of high-end products. it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality leading companies with fundamental support; in terms of the catering supply chain, the fundamentals continue to bottom out, and we look forward to subsequent improvements in capital and policy. with the continued weakness of terminal demand, the valuation levels of most companies are already at a historically low level, with sufficient safety margins. it is recommended to pay attention to leading companies with stronger performance resilience and elastic targets whose subsequent demand is expected to be restored; in the snack food sector, the industry is gradually entering the peak sales season, and we are optimistic about the growth resilience of leading companies.

real estate chain surges

this morning, the real estate chain performed actively, with sectors such as real estate development, property management, and building decoration rising sharply. many stocks such as tiandiyuan, electronic city, and china communications real estate hit their daily limit.

analysts said that the implementation of overseas interest rate cuts may open up room for domestic interest rates to fall, further releasing housing demand. against the backdrop of improved global liquidity and continued easing of real estate policies, the real estate sector is optimistic.

kaiyuan securities said that since august, the purchase restriction policies in cities such as chengdu and changsha have continued to be optimized, and the cost of buying houses in various places has continued to fall. the average commercial loan interest rate for the first set of houses in the 30 key cities tracked by cric is 3.21%, down 0.6-0.7 percentage points from the beginning of the year. entering the traditional sales peak season in september, the market heat will continue to pick up, but the contraction of land acquisition by mainstream real estate companies in the first half of the year may affect the scale of supply and sales recovery. it is expected that the decline in real estate sales will continue to narrow under the low base effect, and a number of destocking policies are expected to help the housing market bottom out and stabilize. we continue to be optimistic about strong credit real estate companies with high investment intensity, good regional layout, and market-oriented mechanisms.