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in the afternoon of september 19, the rmb exchange rate against the us dollar rose. wind data showed that as of 14:50, the onshore rmb exchange rate against the us dollar was 7.0610 yuan, up 283 basis points from the previous closing price, and the highest intraday was 7.0606 yuan.it hit a new high since july 2023.the offshore rmb exchange rate against the u.s. dollar was 7.0619 yuan, up 333 basis points from the previous closing price, with the highest intraday price at 7.0606 yuan.it also hit a new high since july 2023.

the us dollar index weakened. wind data showed that as of 14:50, the us dollar index was at 100.77 points, down 0.17%.

"after the fed cuts interest rates, the impact on the rmb exchange rate will be mainly reflected through the trend of the us dollar, which in turn depends mainly on the pace of subsequent interest rate cuts. if the fed cuts interest rates at a faster pace and exceeds market expectations, the us dollar index may fall below 100, and the rmb exchange rate against the us dollar will move closer to 7 yuan. the possibility of returning to the '6-digit' level in the short term cannot be ruled out. on the contrary, if the pace of interest rate cuts is slower and the us dollar index fluctuates limitedly, the rmb exchange rate against the us dollar will remain basically stable." said wang qing, chief macro analyst at orient securities.

comprehensive industry views,at present, the rmb exchange rate is mainly affected by two factors: one is the trend of the us dollar;this will cause the rmb to passively appreciate or depreciate against the us dollar;second, the domestic macroeconomic trends.it determines the intrinsic appreciation or depreciation momentum of the rmb.

for china, the impact of the fed's interest rate cut is mainly reflected in three aspects. liu tao, a senior researcher at guangkai chief industry research institute, said that first, china's monetary policy will have greater room for easing, and it has the conditions to promote a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. secondly, the rmb is expected to accelerate its recovery appreciation. the originally inverted bond interest rate gap between china and the united states is expected to gradually narrow, thereby promoting the recovery appreciation of the rmb. however, due to the fact that china's monetary policy is also in a relatively loose state, it is difficult for the rmb exchange rate to show a unilateral and substantial strengthening trend in the short term. finally, foreign funds are expected to flow to rmb assets to a certain extent, injecting liquidity into china's stock and bond markets.

yang delong, chief economist and fund manager of qianhai kaiyuan fund, also believes thatthe fed's interest rate cut may trigger a wave of interest rate cuts by central banks around the world, pushing the us dollar index down. the appreciation of the rmb will be conducive to capital flowing back to emerging markets.from the perspective of global capital market valuation, us stocks have the highest valuation, while a-shares and hong kong stocks are at the bottom of the global market valuation. the expectation of rmb appreciation may trigger foreign capital inflows into rmb assets, driving up valuations.

a relevant person in charge of the state administration of foreign exchange said recently that my country's foreign exchange market will continue to maintain a stable operation in the future. from an internal perspective, the positive factors and favorable conditions in my country's economic operation continue to accumulate, and the upward trend of the economy will continue to consolidate and strengthen. at the same time, the development and reform of my country's foreign exchange market continues to advance, and the inherent resilience of the market is improved, which will continue to play a positive role in stabilizing market expectations and transactions. from an external perspective, as the monetary policies of developed economies such as europe and the united states enter a cycle of interest rate cuts, the international financial market environment is expected to improve further.

in addition, affected by the federal reserve's interest rate cut, wind data showed that spot silver rose more than 3% during the day, breaking through $31/ounce; comex silver futures rose 2% during the day and are now trading at $31.32/ounce.

after experiencing overnight market volatility, comex gold prices resumed their rise during the asia-pacific trading session on the 19th, and are currently hovering around us$2,600 per ounce.

gold prices have risen more than 20% this year, hitting record highs. in early 2024, the rally was supported by demand from emerging markets, particularly from central banks and asian consumers and investors, but the focus has shifted to the federal reserve and the outlook for the u.s. economy in recent months. gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, typically benefits from a low interest rate environment, while concerns about a recession often prompt investors to buy gold for safety.

lian ping, chairman of the china chief economist forum, said that the fed's interest rate cut will have an impact on the gold market in the short term, and the gold price may fluctuate greatly. however, in the future, the fed's interest rate cut is likely to push up the gold price together with a series of other factors. after the interest rate cut, inflation may gradually rise slightly, so the value-preserving function of gold will be revealed again. at the same time, "black swan" events may continue to occur in the future, promoting more obvious risk aversion demand.

in the domestic bond market, as of 14:50 on the 19th, treasury bond futures fell across the board, with the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures falling 0.30%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures falling 0.12%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures falling 0.11%, and the main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures falling 0.08%.