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on september 18, the market bottomed out and rebounded throughout the day, with the shanghai composite index falling below 2,700 points. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 0.49%, the shenzhen component index rose 0.11%, and the chinext index fell 0.11%.

in terms of sectors, lithography machines, diversified finance, coal, real estate and other sectors had the highest gains, while consumer electronics, e-commerce, st sectors, e-cigarettes and other sectors had the highest losses.

overall, more stocks fell than rose, with more than 3,600 stocks falling in the market. the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets today was 479.3 billion, down 45.4 billion from the previous trading day, hitting the third lowest volume this year.

this morning, the three major indexes all fluctuated downward, but fortunately the decline was limited and the shanghai composite index narrowly held above 2,700 points.

just after the market opened in the afternoon, a sudden wave of large-scale selling "smashed" the index into a hole, and the 2700-point mark was directly broken.

but then, the attitude of the funds supporting the market was relatively sincere. from 13:45, the broad-based etfs continued to rise in two waves, causing the three major indexes to turn positive, bringing back the market sentiment.

this is also the period of the day when buying is concentrated and the bullish effect is most obvious.

although the market has fallen back to some extent since then, the overall characteristics have been finalized, namely:

1) reduction in volume.today's total a-share transaction volume was only 481.7 billion yuan, returning to the intra-year level.

considering that the hong kong stock market is closed today and north-south trading is closed, a slight decrease in on-site trading volume is understandable.

more importantly, in the early hours of thursday morning beijing time, the global market will usher in a major moment: the announcement of the federal reserve's september interest rate decision. before the answer to "whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points" is revealed, it is inevitable that funds in the market will be somewhat conservative and wait-and-see.

2) the benefits of group cooperation.as of the closing, more than 3,600 companies in the market fell, and small and micro-cap stocks and short-term high-priced stocks performed poorly; but among the top 20 stocks in terms of total market value of the a-share market, only kweichow moutai and china telecom closed lower.

the dividend index also performed very actively in the afternoon rally of the market.

why did this happen on the first trading day after the holiday? in addition to the above-mentioned market performance, there is another deeper reason.

since september, the inflow of supporting funds has decreased

starting from 13:45, driven by two waves of large volumes of broad-based etfs, the shanghai composite index, which performed the most tenaciously today, showed a significant increase and turned positive at one point.

judging from the intraday chart, broad-based etfs saw significant increases in volume several times during today’s trading session, but the first few times were mainly for bottoming out; it was not until the two waves in the afternoon that market sentiment was “revitalized.”

however, it is undeniable that since september, the overall trading volume of broad-based etfs has shrunk, which to some extent made the market's upward momentum weak in the previous trading days.

for example, the capital inflows of the four larger csi 300 etfs on the market this month (as of last friday) are clearly difficult to compare with those in the previous two months.

citic securities recently reported that the inflow of supporting funds has decreased since september, which has accelerated the stock price to fully reflect market expectations. the bottoming process is expected to be shortened, and short-term capital game is expected to continue to dominate the market before the introduction of incremental policies. in terms of allocation, it is recommended to continue the bottom position of dividends and overseas going global, and wait patiently for the turning point signal.

in terms of allocation strategy, the research report believes that in an environment where economic fundamentals remain weak and long-term government bond interest rates continue to decline, the bottom-line value of dividends still exists, but the structure should avoid products with fundamental volatility risks; at the same time, the excellent companies in the overseas sector that have fully reflected the risks of overseas recession and trade frictions have allocation value.

lithography machine concept led the rise throughout the day

in terms of sectors, judging from the performance throughout the day, three major directions performed outstandingly.

first, driven by holiday news, the lithography machine concept strengthened significantly at the opening.

this good news refers to the recent release of the "guidelines for the promotion and application of the first set of major technological equipment (2024 edition)" by the ministry of industry and information technology.

according to the micro-news of industry and information technology, major technical equipment is a national treasure, which is related to the comprehensive national strength and national security. china's first major technical equipment refers to equipment products that have achieved major technological breakthroughs in china, have intellectual property rights, and have not yet achieved significant market performance, including complete equipment, core systems and key components. under the catalog of electronic special equipment, argon fluoride lithography machines and krypton fluoride lithography machines appeared in the integrated circuit equipment field, both of which are duv lithography machines.

citic securities believes that the scale of the global semiconductor equipment market will continue to increase from 2024 to 2025, with the chinese market leading the world. there is still a large gap in domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the localization rate of equipment. benefiting from the increase in downstream demand and the rapid growth of the localization rate, we are optimistic about the increase in orders brought by the new product layout and advanced production capacity of domestic equipment, parts and materials companies in key areas. it is expected that the orders of domestic equipment companies will increase rapidly in the next 2 to 3 years.

the concept of state-owned enterprise reform also continued to be active today, and the overall trend was to bottom out and recover. among them, the core target baobian electric staged a "ground-to-ceiling" trend in the morning session, but the closing in the afternoon was not firm - this to a certain extent suggests that short-term sentiment is still unstable.

in addition, the insurance sector continued its recent strong performance. although it fell back significantly in late trading, it played a certain supporting role in the index during the trading session. china life insurance rose more than 3% during the trading session, setting a new high for the year.

according to a research report by kaiyuan securities, the liabilities of listed insurance companies grew beyond expectations in the first half of 2024. with the stabilization of individual insurance manpower and the improvement of production capacity, new orders maintained good growth, and the value contribution of the bancassurance channel increased significantly. both nbv and ev achieved high-quality growth. among them, the premiums of four listed insurance companies increased sharply in august, and it is expected that the renewal premiums will continue to increase sharply. at the same time, under the low base in the same period of august, listed insurance companies seized the window period of the pricing interest rate reduction, and some new order demand was released in advance.

looking ahead to the second half of the year, with the decline in the payment base of new policies, the individual insurance channel will support the growth of new policies. the full implementation of the unified reporting and banking system and the reduction in the scheduled settlement interest rate will help improve the value rate. the nbv for the whole year is expected to grow with high quality.

finally, among the dividend assets that strengthened overall in the afternoon, sectors such as coal and banks contributed a lot of the gains.

some people believe that despite the recent continuous adjustment of dividend assets, their long-term investment value is still significant. especially in the context of slow global economic recovery, reduced risk appetite for funds and the downward shift of the domestic risk-free interest rate center, dividend assets are expected to become an important choice for investors to optimize asset allocation with their historical stable cash flow, high dividend yield and policy support.

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