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in the last trading week (9.9~9.13), a-shares performed poorly overall.

at the index level, except for the gem-related and micro-cap stocks which were slightly stronger, other indexes closed lower during the week, among which the dividend-related index had the most obvious correction.

in terms of individual stocks, only 1,303 stocks closed higher for the whole week, while 3,929 stocks closed lower, continuing the sluggish trend in the first week of september.

this was obviously affected by the shrinking market volume, with the total trading volume of the a-share market for the whole week being only 2.6 trillion yuan.

this week (9.16~9.20), although the "pre-holiday effect" has passed and there is an expectation of capital inflow, the a-share market will be closed for two days due to the mid-autumn festival holiday, leaving only three trading days for capital to play.

therefore, whether the market can improve at the opening depends more on various news fermented during the holiday and the major events that are about to happen. this article will take stock of them.

these major events during the holidays attract more attention

(1) august financial data released

on september 13, the people's bank of china released the financial statistics report for august 2024. the data showed that rmb loans increased by 14.43 trillion yuan in the first eight months.

social financing data released on the same day showed that preliminary statistics showed that the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first eight months of 2024 was 21.9 trillion yuan, 3.32 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. at the end of august, the stock of social financing scale was 398.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year.

wu kaida's team at tianfeng securities believes that the pulse of social financing has fallen, new government bonds have rebounded, and new rmb loans have increased less and widened. in august, the decline of m1 continued to widen, m2 remained flat, the stock of social financing fell year-on-year, and excess liquidity rebounded. in august, the increase in the scale of social financing was 3.03 trillion yuan, 98.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. structurally, new government bonds rebounded, new rmb loans increased less and widened, and the three off-balance sheet items fell but remained positive. in terms of loan structure, new short-term loans of residents increased less and widened significantly, and new medium and long-term loans turned negative year-on-year. in terms of corporate loans, new medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased less and widened slightly, short-term loans of enterprises increased less and narrowed, and new bills decreased slightly year-on-year, and the credit structure needs to be improved.

(2) national bureau of statistics releases economic data from january to august

on september 14, the national bureau of statistics released the national economic operation data for august.

"the overall economic operation in august was stable, the transformation and upgrading was steadily advanced, high-quality development continued to achieve new results, and the economic operation continued to maintain a stable and progressive development trend." at a press conference held by the state council information office on the same day, liu aihua, spokesperson, chief economist, and director of the comprehensive statistics department of the national economy of the national bureau of statistics, commented on the economic performance in august.

major economic data for the first eight months of this year↓

among them, the basic situation of the national real estate market has also attracted much attention from the market. data shows that real estate development investment is still at a low level, with the cumulative decline remaining the same as last month; under the influence of policy measures, some indicators on the sales side have shown marginal narrowing, and the decline in the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide has narrowed for three consecutive months.

earlier, the national bureau of statistics also released the national cpi (consumer price index) and ppi (producer price index) data for august.

(3) ming-chi kuo said that iphone 16 series sales were lower than expected: the pro version was not well received

recently, the well-known apple analyst ming-chi kuo said that the pre-order sales of the iphone 16 series in the first weekend were about 37 million units, a decrease of about 12.7% compared with the iphone 15 series in the same period last year, which was lower than apple's expectations.

it believes that the key reason why the sales of the iphone 16 pro series were lower than expected is that apple’s biggest selling point, apple intelligence, could not be launched together with the release of the iphone 16. at the same time, the fierce competition in the chinese market also reduced the demand for the iphone.

this news can also be combined with huawei's "three-fold" mobile phone to confirm the recent difference in popularity between the "apple chain" and huawei's industrial chain in a-shares.

according to media reports, data from huawei's official mall shows that the number of pre-orders for this three-fold screen mobile phone has reached 5.4 million. on second-hand platforms, scalpers are also ready to move. some scalpers have already speculated that this three-fold screen mobile phone will be sold for 100,000 yuan. before the price was announced, the pre-sale price of the 1tb model on the dewu platform was nearly 70,000 yuan. on second-hand trading platforms such as xianyu and zhuanzhuan, there are still a large number of proxy auctions that say they are accepting orders.

(4) hong kong stocks rebounded across the board on monday

on september 16, the hong kong stock market opened low and ended high, and all stocks turned positive in the afternoon. as of the close, the hong kong hang seng index rose 0.31%, the hang seng china enterprises index rose 0.31%, and the hang seng technology index rose 0.51%. food and staples retail, materials, and healthcare equipment and services industries led the hong kong stock market.

in terms of market conditions, hong kong stocks have performed better than a-shares recently. from august 7 to september 13, the hang seng index rose 4.3%, while the shanghai composite index fell 5.7% during the same period. since august 7, the market performance of hong kong stocks has been stronger than that of a-shares. specifically, from august 7 to september 13, the hang seng index and hang seng technology index rose 4.3% and 4.1% respectively, while the shanghai composite index and chinext index both fell 5.7% during the same period.

everbright securities believes that the main reasons for the recent divergence in performance between the hong kong and a-share markets include: hong kong stocks' semi-annual report performance is slightly stronger than a-shares; market expectations for the federal reserve's interest rate cut have recently increased, and the hong kong stock market has benefited more as an offshore market; the hong kong stock market has adjusted more fully in the early stages, and its dividend yield is higher.

(5) dow jones hits record high, apple plummets

on september 16, local time, the dow jones hit a record high, and the s&p 500 rose for six consecutive trading days. u.s. technology stocks rose and fell - meta facebook rose 1.75%, microsoft rose 0.17%; amazon fell 0.86%, and netflix fell 0.08%.

it is worth noting that apple’s stock price opened lower and fell 2.78% by the close of trading, with its total market value evaporating by nearly us$94 billion (equivalent to more than rmb 660 billion).

other news

(6) the state financial supervision and administration bureau issued the notice on promoting non-bank financial institutions to support large-scale equipment upgrading and consumer goods trade-in activities.

(7) china’s minister of commerce will visit europe to discuss anti-subsidy case on electric vehicles

(8) typhoon bebejia made landfall in many places in jiangsu, zhejiang and shanghai

(9) in connection with the evergrande fraud case, pwc was fined the maximum amount of rmb 440 million and its business was suspended for half a year

(10) many top anchors, including xiao yangge, promoted the "hong kong meicheng mooncakes", and its manufacturer has been fined many times

what other big things are happening this week?

(1) the federal reserve’s interest rate decision was announced in the early morning of september 19, beijing time.

as the first rate cut in the interest rate cut cycle, whether the magnitude is 25 basis points or 50 basis points, the answer will soon be revealed.

traders' latest forecasts show that the probability of the fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and 50 basis points this week is about the same. according to data updated on the morning of september 16th, beijing time, the probability of the fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in september is 48%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52%. the probability of the fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by november is 30.2%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.3%.

cui rong, chief analyst of overseas research at citic securities, said that in the context of slowing inflation but with flaws and cooling employment but with resilience in the united states, the federal reserve is still in a "risk management" rather than "crisis response" decision-making framework. while protecting the labor market, it also needs to take into account the still sticky price environment and minimize the risk of inflation returning. she judged that, in general, the federal reserve has the conditions to cut interest rates, but it does not need to cut interest rates quickly. it is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, each time by 25 basis points.

in addition, the bank of japan will hold a two-day policy meeting from september 19 to 20. most market analysts predict that the bank of japan will not take any interest rate hike action at this meeting, and the next rate hike may be in december.

(2) on september 20, the central bank announced the latest lpr

previous data showed that in august, the one-year lpr was 3.35% and the lpr for more than five years was 3.85%, both remaining unchanged after being lowered in july.

(3) some important meetings

september 19-21,huawei connect conference,shanghai

with the theme of "win-win industry intelligence", this conference will host more than 300 keynote speeches, summits, and forums, with an exhibition area of ​​more than 20,000 square meters, located in the shanghai world expo exhibition and convention center and the shanghai world expo center.

as huawei's grand event for the entire industry, huawei connect aims to create an open, cooperative, and shared platform, jointly promote industrial development with the industry, and build an open and win-win healthy ecosystem.

in the same period, there areyunqi conference (hangzhou)and2024 china (chengdu) international low-altitude economic cooperation partner conferencewait.

in terms of the market, wind data shows that this week, a total of 50 companies have released restricted shares, with a total of 3.187 billion shares released. based on the closing price on september 13, the total market value of the release is 27.511 billion yuan. the top three companies in terms of market value of the release are: centec communications-u (5.152 billion yuan), waifu holdings (3.719 billion yuan), and newway cnc (3.089 billion yuan). the top three companies in terms of the number of shares released are: waifu holdings (894 million shares), chuanfa longmang (386 million shares), and newway cnc (245 million shares).

it is worth noting that there are 221 new bonds issued this week. in terms of bond issuance scale, the top three are 24 discount treasury bond 56 (65.00 billion yuan), 24 special treasury bond 05 (follow-up) (45.00 billion yuan), and 24 anhui bond special (fifty-fourth issue) ib (24.983 billion yuan).

last week's highlights

index performance: chinext is the most resilient

index weekly

weekly leading gainers and losers

number of stocks that rose or fell, number of stocks with price limits, and market volume

weekly gain and loss list of individual stocks: high-priced stocks retreat and lead the decline

continuous board situation

daily economic news