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china fund news reporter taylor

brothers and sisters, happy mid-autumn festival. let’s take a brief look at the u.s. stock market tonight.

apple's stock price plummets

on the evening of the 16th, after the u.s. stock market opened, apple’s stock price fell by more than 3%.

on the news front, well-known apple analyst ming-chi kuo wrote in a report that there were reports that demand for the new iphone 16 was lower than expected and fell 12% compared to the sales of the iphone 15 in its first weekend last year.

based on the latest supply chain survey and pre-order results from apple's official website, ming-chi kuo obtained the following key data for the first weekend pre-orders of each iphone 16 model, including first weekend pre-order sales and average waiting time for shipment.

according to ming-chi kuo's analysis, the pre-order sales of the iphone 16 series in the first weekend are estimated to be about 37 million units, a decrease of about 12.7% from the first weekend sales of the iphone 15 series last year. the key is that the iphone 16 pro series is lower than expected.

the shipping time of the iphone 16 pro series is significantly lower than that of the 15 pro series. in addition to the increase in inventory before pre-orders, the decrease in sales in the first weekend may be due to lower-than-expected demand.

guo mingchi said that one of the possible reasons for the lower-than-expected demand for the iphone 16 pro series is that apple intelligence, the biggest selling point, cannot be launched with the release of the iphone 16. in addition, fierce competition in the chinese market continues to affect iphone demand.

first weekend sales of iphone 16 plus and standard version both increased year-on-year, but the impact on overall iphone shipments was limited.

guo mingchi said that although the first weekend pre-orders of the iphone 16 pro series decreased year-on-year, the production plan of the supply chain should not change much in the short term. apple still has the opportunity to improve sales by releasing apple intelligence and subsequent peak season promotions (the year-end peak season in europe and the united states and double eleven in china), which is also the focus of subsequent observations on changes in iphone demand.

guo mingchi said that if the release of apple intelligence and peak season promotions in the fourth quarter have limited help on iphone 16 shipments, he believes that apple will have a more aggressive product strategy in 2025 to boost demand.

analysts at barclays, jpmorgan chase & co. and bank of america corp. also noted in notes to investors that demand for the latest iphone pro models was lower compared with last year.

"based on our conversations with distributors and analysis of pre-order data from major chinese e-commerce sites, total pre-orders were down year-over-year in the first few days, and the pro model was less heavily weighted," barclays analysts wrote in a note. "we understand that the pro model volume was down double-digit year-over-year, while the base and plus models were up year-over-year."

barclays analysts also added that the chinese version of apple intelligence "will not be launched until 2025, which may dampen early enthusiasm for the iphone 16. weak macroeconomics and competition continue to drag down iphone sales in china." analysts also mentioned that in order to promote iphone 15 sales in china, apple has to rely on heavy discounts.

tracking delivery cycles in key markets as an indicator of demand, jpmorgan analysts noted that “early delivery times suggest that demand for the base iphone 16 model in the first week (i.e. pre-order week) was in line with the iphone 15 series, while early demand indicators for the pro models were slightly weaker relative to the iphone 15 series.”

the probability of the federal reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week is more than 50%

on the evening of the 16th, traders again believed that federal reserve policymakers were more likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points at this week's meeting.

markets are now pricing in a 61% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut from the fed, up from 30% last week, according to cme's fedwatch tool.

the federal reserve will initiate a critical turning point this week with its first interest rate cut in four years, aimed at achieving a rare soft landing for the u.s. economy.

with inflation seemingly under control and slack in the u.s. labor market emerging, officials are widely expected to cut their benchmark lending rate by at least 25 basis points when they conclude a two-day meeting on wednesday. traders, jpmorgan chase & co. economists and former new york fed president william dudley are even preparing for a bigger 50 basis point cut.

the november presidential election also puts the fed in an awkward position, with republican candidate and former president donald trump warning the central bank not to cut rates on the eve of the vote, while democratic senator elizabeth warren has pressured officials to cut rates by 75 basis points.

in addition, the three major u.s. stock indexes rose and fell tonight, with the dow jones industrial average hitting an all-time high during the session.