the conflict between israel and lebanon continues, and israel's internal divisions have left the israeli army in a "dilemma" in the direction of lebanon
2024-09-17
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recently, the temporary border conflict between lebanon and israel has continued, and tens of thousands of israelis have been forced to flee their homes due to the continued attacks by lebanon's hezbollah on northern israel.
israeli defense minister galant recently stated that if no agreement can be reached, the israeli army will launch an all-out war against hezbollah in lebanon to restore "security" in the north.
israeli media predict that prime minister netanyahu will then make the return of residents in israel's northern border areas to their homes an official war goal.
the report also quoted netanyahu as saying that a "total war" in lebanon would not weaken the israeli army's ability to exert military pressure on hamas in the gaza strip.
screenshot of the report from israel's jerusalem post
niu xinchun, executive director of the institute of chinese and arab countries of ningxia universityin an interview with a reporter from china central radio and television's global information radio, it was analyzed that netanyahu wanted to set "the return of northern residents to their homes" as a "combat goal" because israel is unable to curb hezbollah's activities in the temporary border area between lebanon and israel through existing means.
since october 7 last year, israel has evacuated about 100,000 people from northern israel. the reason why these 100,000 people cannot return is because of the exchange of fire between hezbollah in lebanon and israel.
israel's condition is that hezbollah must be driven northward from the lebanese-israeli border to the north of the litani river in lebanon, 29 kilometers away. in this way, the security threat to northern israel will be greatly reduced.
israel has been stepping up its military strikes against hezbollah in lebanon in recent months, hoping to drive it back through military threats, but the effect has not been good. therefore, in recent times, israel has been threatening to resort to "all-out war".
screenshot of qatar al jazeera report
however, netanyahu's views face opposition within the israeli government.
israeli defense minister galant said that although the israeli army is ready to go to war against hezbollah in lebanon, this will reduce the israeli military's strength in the gaza strip, which may harm the chances of rescuing the detained people.
niu xinchun further analyzed that the opposition voices within israel are representative, which is also an important reason why israel has not been able to make up its mind to launch an "all-out war" against hezbollah in lebanon.
first, if israel deploys its main forces to the north to engage in war with hezbollah in lebanon before the gaza conflict ends, it may affect the war in gaza and may also affect the current ceasefire negotiations.
second, if a "total war" breaks out between israel and lebanon, israel will suffer heavy casualties, a price it is unwilling to bear.
third, even if the israeli army fully enters southern lebanon, it is impossible to completely eliminate hezbollah. so what is the significance of the war? therefore, until today, there are still great contradictions and differences in israel on this issue.
source: global information radio "live world"
reporter: zhang han and chen meng
edited by lin weiyoujia
review by liu peng and liu yiyao
