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since taking office, taiwan leader lai ching-te has repeatedly made remarks about the so-called "non-subordination" of the two sides of the taiwan strait, which has aroused concerns. kishore mahbubani, founding dean of the lee kuan yew school of public policy at the national university of singapore, warned that if taiwan promotes "taiwan independence", it will not only fail to gain support from the majority of countries, but will also probably pay a heavy price.

according to singapore’s lianhe zaobao, on september 11, taiwan’s li kuo-ting science and technology development foundation and other organizations held the “2024 geopolitical summit forum” in taipei. kishore mahbubani was invited to give a keynote speech at the meeting and hold discussions with taiwanese experts and scholars.

regarding the trend of sino-us relations after the us election, mahbubani analyzed that whether harris or trump is elected, sino-us competition will continue because it is driven by structural forces. he also said that the two people's response styles to sino-us competition will be significantly different in many important aspects. therefore, for china, no matter who is elected, there will be advantages and disadvantages.

mahbubani pointed out that trump is unstable, unpredictable, and does not trust allies, which may cause the current allies of the united states to turn to cooperation with mainland china, and taiwan will have to pay a higher price to gain the support of the united states. in addition, trump is a businessman who is willing to trade and is even willing to trade with any conditions. "taiwan is a chess piece, and the chess piece is always the first to be sacrificed." he asserted that if trump gets the conditions he is willing to accept, he will "sacrifice taiwan" without hesitation.

as for harris, kishore mahbubani believes that if she is elected president, she will inevitably continue the policy direction of the biden administration, including continuing to build a network of alliances and continuing to put pressure on russia in the russia-ukraine war, which is very predictable.

kishore mahbubani bluntly stated that in this context, "taiwan is one of the most dangerous regions in the world." the world has been dominated by the west for the past 200 years, but now the west's dominance is coming to an end and the world is facing structural changes.

kishore mahbubani said that taiwan should not promote "taiwan independence" and that "this is dangerous under any circumstances, especially at this moment."

he used an analogy to say that if you walk into a room full of gas and light a spark, you will cause a big explosion. those who advocate "taiwan independence" must understand the danger.

mahbubani said that as a diplomat who served as an ambassador to the united nations for more than 10 years, he is well aware of the cruelty and reality of geopolitics. once taiwan chooses "taiwan independence", the international community is very likely to move closer to mainland china, and taiwan's international space for activities will be greatly restricted. the cost will be very painful, "actually it will be like locking yourself in a small prison and throwing away the key."

kishore mahbubani particularly emphasized that he was making suggestions to taiwan as a friend.