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recently, taipei's political arena has been shrouded in news about corruption by people's party chairman ko wen-je, causing people to become tired of it. against this backdrop, a tvbs poll on the 2026 kaohsiung mayoral election unexpectedly broke the silence and created a stir in public opinion on the island.

this poll shows that no matter who the dpp runs for in 2026, kmt legislator ko wen-en is ahead in the polls, and the lead is 5%. the specific data is as follows: if lin dai-huah faces ko chien-en, 35% support lin dai-huah and 40% support ko chien-en; if lai rui-long faces ko chien-en, 35% support lai rui-long and 40% support ko chien-en; if hsu chih-chieh faces ko chien, 34% support hsu chih-chieh and 42% support ko chien; if chiu yi-ying faces ko chien, 34% support chiu yi-ying and 43% support ko chien; if hsu ming-chun faces ko chien, 24% support hsu ming-chun and 45% support ko chien.

election polls have long been a technical tool for social control and leading trends in taiwan, and the so-called "institutional effect" is very different. tvbs is relatively objective, neutral, and has a higher credibility, which is one of the reasons why this poll can cause a little splash.

there is no doubt that this poll will help consolidate and boost the confidence of the blue camp, but it does not mean that the kaohsiung mayoral seat in 2026 will be in the pocket of the kuomintang.

first, this poll shows that 40%-45% support does not break through the base of ko chien-en and the kmt, and is not enough for her to be elected. in the 2022 kaohsiung mayoral election, ko chien-en, who represented the kmt, received 40.16% of the votes.

secondly, this is a poll conducted before the dpp has completed integration and the candidate has not been "decided". currently, there are as many as five people in the dpp who are interested in seeking the nomination, including green camp legislators lin daihua, lai ruilong, xu zhijie, chiu yiying and former labor department head xu mingchun. in order to belittle their opponents within the party, their supporters may deliberately water down ko chien in the poll. only when the green camp candidate is "decided" and the blue and green camps are "one-on-one", will the poll be more valuable for reference.

furthermore, this is a poll conducted under the background of ko wen-je being politically persecuted by the dpp. it is not ruled out that the supporters of the white camp voted for ko chien-en emotionally in order to counter the dpp. if the election comes to a real fight, will the white camp vote for the kmt candidate? it is too early to draw a conclusion.

in fact, an internal poll conducted by a local political leader in kaohsiung during the same period showed that except for xu mingchun, ko chien's support rate lagged behind the other four green camp legislators. therefore, this tvbs poll obviously cannot be interpreted as kaohsiung will definitely "turn from green to blue" in 2026 or that the kmt will create a "ko chien miracle."

elections still need to return to the basics. looking at the recent kaohsiung mayoral elections, in 2014, chen ju won 68.08% of the votes and 990,000 votes, defeating yang qiuxing, who was then known as the "little giant of the south". in 2018, han guoyu swept kaohsiung with the "korean wave" and defeated chen qimai with 53.86% of the votes and 890,000 votes, defeating chen qimai with 44.79% and 740,000 votes, which can be called a special case. but in 2020, han was recalled by 930,000 votes, 40,000 more than the number of votes he received when he was elected; in august of the same year, in the kaohsiung mayoral by-election, chen qimai won 670,000 votes with a high vote rate of 70.03%, defeating li meizhen of the kuomintang. chen qimai, the dpp mayor of kaohsiung who is seeking re-election in 2022, won 58.1% of the votes and 766,000 votes, defeating ke zhien.

the biggest reason for the miracle in 2018 was of course han kuo-yu's personal qualities and charm. his down-to-earth work at the grassroots and his popular election slogans, coupled with the changing public opinion, cracks in the dpp primary election and carelessness, ultimately overturned the dpp's stronghold.

the question is, does ko chien-en have the same strong aura and personal charm as han kuo-yu? no. moreover, chen chi-mai will certainly do his best to escort the next mayoral candidate to the post and gain bargaining chips for himself to move to the next level. the kmt does not have the capital to be optimistic. in such a strong green camp, if you want to create the "ko chien miracle" in 2026, three prerequisites are indispensable.

first, ko chien-en continued to perform his duties in the public opinion institutions conscientiously and worked hard at the grassroots level in kaohsiung to accumulate strength. the kmt increased its resource investment, moved voters with sincere service, and strengthened the atmosphere of change in kaohsiung people's hearts. ko chien-en is eloquent, has an academic background, a fresh image, and a southern background. he served as a non-district representative and the chairman of the kmt kaohsiung party committee, but he still needs to work hard.

second, han kuo-yu’s support. although han kuo-yu was recalled in kaohsiung, he still has many supporters in taiwan, including in kaohsiung. he is currently the head of a representative organization and maintains high popularity. if he continues to empower ko chien-en, including helping him in organizational mobilization, election skills and packaging, then as the “political animal” chen shui-bian warned, if han kuo-yu joins the 2026 election campaign, kaohsiung and tainan will definitely be the first to bear the brunt.

the third is that the "blue and white coalition" must be achieved in the 2026 election. it is generally believed that the people's party has about 15%-20% support in kaohsiung. with ko wen-je being hunted down by the democratic progressive party, the supporters of the people's party will surely fight back in 2026. if the kmt can strive for a "blue and white coalition", it will undoubtedly be a booster for ko chien's election.

strait herald reporter wu shenglin